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INVESTING IDEAS - page 45

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Point72 Asset Management Just Bought 6% Of This Biotech Stock

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Point72 Asset Management Just Bought 6% Of This Biotech Stock

A schedule 13G filed with the SEC last night revealed that Steven Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management purchased a new stake in Agenus Inc (Nasdaq: AGEN). The hedge fund now owns 6,144,144 shares or 6% of the company’s equity. The stock has spiked nearly 65% in the last 30 days.

Point72 Asset Management Just Bought 6% Of This Biotech Stocksource: finbox.io


Potential Reasons For Point72’s New Position

Agenus is a clinical-stage immuno-oncology company focusing on the discovery and development of therapies that engage the body’s immune system for patients suffering from cancer.

It appears that investors are warming up to the idea that Agenus’ broad pipeline of anti-cancer checkpoint inhibitors is undervalued. The company already enjoys licensing deals with both Incyte and Merck to develop checkpoint antibodies for a range of solid tumors.

Agenus is not expected to file for regulatory approval for one of its checkpoint antibodies until 2019 so investors will likely have to wait before seeing any meaningful progress. However, could Point72 know something that the public doesn’t? Steven Cohen is one of the more controversial money managers that you’ll find due to being charged with insider trading in 2013. He ultimately settled out of court for $1.8 billion in the largest securities fraud case ever. But investing morality aside, you cannot deny his impressive returns which is why this new position in Agenus is notable.

In addition, finbox.io’s average fair value estimate of $7.09 implies 18.3% upside and is calculated from 4 valuation models as shown in the table below. Each analysis uses consensus Wall Street estimates for the projections when available.

Agenus Inc Valuation Detail
Analysis Model Fair Value Upside (Downside)
Peer Revenue Multiples $4.20 -29.8%
5-yr DCF EBITDA Exit $7.04 17.5%
10-yr DCF Growth Exit $11.71 95.5%
5-yr DCF Growth Exit $5.38 -10.1%
Average $7.09 18.3%

Even though Agenus shares have traded higher over the last month, the stock still appears to be trading at a discount to its intrinsic value. This could be another reason why Steven Cohen’s firm purchased the new stake in the company.

It is important to note that investors should never blindly copy the trading activity of illustrious money managers such as Cohen Icahn. However, keeping an eye on their buying and selling activity will help in making a more informed decision.

I recommend investors continue their research on Agenus to get a more comprehensive view of the company.

Valuation: how much upside do shares of Agenus have based on Wall Street’s consensus price target? Take a look at our analyst upside data explorer that compares the company’s upside relative to its peers.

Valuation: what is Agenus’ price to book ratio and how does it compare to its peers? Analyze Price / Book here.

Valuation: how much upside do shares of Agenus have based on the Ben Graham Formula? Take a look at our Ben Graham Formula data explorer which also compares the company’s upside to its peers.

Risk Metrics: what is Agenus’ cash ratio which is used to assess a company’s short-term liquidity. View the company’s cash ratio here.


Author: Andy Pai

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions

Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights:

  • Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores.
  • Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets.

Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Point72 Asset Management Just Bought 6% Of This Biotech Stock

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Source: finbox.io mavericks analysis
Point72 Asset Management Just Bought 6% Of This Biotech Stock

Lawson Products, Inc. (LAWS) Insiders Are Buying Shares. Should You?

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Lawson Products, Inc. (LAWS) Insiders Are Buying Shares. Should You?

New form 4 filings with the SEC have revealed that Lawson Products, Inc. (Nasdaq: LAWS) insiders have been buying large quantities of stock since February 28th. With shares down -11.6% in the last year, it’s worth taking a closer look at the company.


Insider Buying: Lawson Products, Inc.

Two separate insiders have been buying shares of Lawson Products according to filings with the SEC including Michael DeCata (President and CEO) and Luther King Capital (10% owner). Total insider buying has totaled $5.4 million since February 28th which is approximately 2.5% of Lawson Products’ total market capitalization.

Recent Lawson Products, Inc. Insider Transactions
Insider Trading Relationship Date #Shares Value ($)
Luther King Capital 10% Owner Mar 02 125,000 $3,000,000
Michael DeCata President and CEO Mar 02 900 $21,395
Michael DeCata President and CEO Mar 01 942 $22,127
Luther King Capital 10% Owner Feb 28 100,000 $2,400,000
TOTAL 226,842 $5,443,522

Luther King Capital Management is an employee owned investment manager. According to its website, the firm invests in high-quality businesses that it believes will produce consistent, repeatable and, ultimately, superior risk-adjusted returns for its clients.

Its investment philosophy is grounded in the fundamental analysis of companies that meet its investment criteria, such as market dominance, high or rising returns on invested capital, strong cash flow characteristics and a sound balance sheet.

Taking a closer look at Lawson’s fundamentals helps explain why Luther Capital now owns 2.45 million shares which represent more than 25% of the total shares outstanding.


Why Are Insiders Buying Shares?

Lawson Products distributes products and services to the industrial, commercial, institutional, and government maintenance, repair, and operations marketplace in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean. The company was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Although significantly smaller, comparable public companies include W.W. Grainger, (NYSE: GWW), MSC Industrial Direct Company, (NYSE: MSM), EnviroStar, (NYSEMKT: EVI) and WESCO International, (NYSE: WCC). Analyzing Lawson Products’ valuation metrics and ratios relative to its peers offers further insight into why insiders may be buying their shares.

Debt to Capital measures a company’s current capital structure, financial solvency, and degree of leverage. The higher the percentage, the more debt the company has in its capital structure and the lower the equity cushion.

It appears the company does have a strong balance sheet relative to its peers. Lawson Products’ debt to capital ratio of 3.0% is below the majority of its comparable companies as shown below.

Lawson Products, Inc. (LAWS) Insiders Are Buying Shares. Should You?

source: finbox.io

Analysts often look at Price to Book Value multiples to help determine how much to pay for a given stock. The company’s price to book value of 2.9x is only above WCC (1.4x) and below GWW (7.6x), MSM (3.9x), EVI (11.8x).

Lawson Products, Inc. (LAWS) Insiders Are Buying Shares. Should You?

source: finbox.io


Lawson Products Valuation

The company’s shares last traded at $24.70 as of Monday, down -11.6% over the last year. While the stock has stagnated, the recent insider transactions could signal a promising road ahead for shareholders.

Lawson Products, Inc. (LAWS) Insiders Are Buying Shares. Should You?

In addition, finbox.io’s average fair value estimate of $29.99 implies 21.4% upside and is calculated from 9 valuation models as shown in the table below. Each analysis uses consensus Wall Street estimates for the projections when available.

Lawson Products, Inc. Valuation Detail
Analysis Model Fair Value Upside (Downside)
10-yr DCF Revenue Exit $35.35 43.1%
5-yr DCF Revenue Exit $38.60 56.3%
10-yr DCF EBITDA Exit $34.58 40.0%
5-yr DCF EBITDA Exit $37.44 51.6%
Peer EBITDA Multiples $21.09 -14.6%
10-yr DCF Growth Exit $26.56 7.5%
5-yr DCF Growth Exit $25.48 3.2%
Peer P/E Multiples $20.04 -18.9%
Earnings Power Value $30.80 24.7%
Average $29.99 21.4%
Median $30.80 24.7%

While executives are always happy to tell you all the reasons why their stock is a buy, their actions can tell a different story about the company’s future prospects. A trend of buying activity may indicate that insiders think the stock is going up over the upcoming time period, and are trying to buy before the price rises.

Keep in mind that insider activity is only one aspect of stock research and that there are other important items to consider. I recommend you continue to research Lawson Products to get a more comprehensive view of the company’s fundamentals by looking at:

Valuation: what is Lawson Products’ free cash flow yield and how does it compare to its publicly traded peers? This metric measures the amount of free cash flow for each dollar of equity (market capitalization). Analyze the free cash flow yield here.

Efficiency Metrics: return on equity is used to measure the return that a firm generates on the book value of common equity. View Lawson Products’ return on equity here.

Efficiency Metrics: is management becoming more or less efficient in creating value for the firm? Find out by analyzing the company’s return on invested capital ratio here.

Forecast: what is Lawson Products’ projected EBITDA margin? Is the company expected to improve its profitability going forward? Analyze the company’s projected EBITDA margin here.


Author: Brian Dentino

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends

Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors.

Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io.

As of this writing, Brian did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Lawson Products, Inc. (LAWS) Insiders Are Buying Shares. Should You?

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Source: finbox.io insider analysis
Lawson Products, Inc. (LAWS) Insiders Are Buying Shares. Should You?

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% Upside

in INVESTING IDEAS by
  • In times of financial market anxiety, boring is good. The packaging services industry escapes some economic cyclicality while offering upside in international markets.
  • Berry’s approach of consolidating fragmented markets along with funding organic growth has produced superior execution metrics.
  • Wall Street analysts, quantitative valuation models, and a favorable Enterprise Value/Free Cash Flow comparison provide all the inputs needed for this manufacturer to appreciate.

It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% Upside

The financial world is very anxious right now because the news has been so good. The U.S. economy is a year short of a record ten-year expansion. Jobless claims are at 49-year lows, hourly earnings increased at their fastest annual pace in eight years, consumer sentiment is at all-time highs, manufacturing expanded at the fastest rate in 13 years.

However, there is a dark side. The Federal Reserve is charged with keeping both unemployment and inflation low. With a mature expansion and stock markets that have roared since the presidential election, the Fed’s tone has been increasingly hawkish. The market has also become worried about the cost and scarcity of manufacturing inputs, including labor. The cherry on top came today with President Trump announcing that he will set new across-the-board tariffs on steel and aluminum; spooking investors with the specter of a trade war.

As investors look at where to put their money in a market like this, they tend to start thinking of “boring.” Not the Elon Musk kind, but no-nonsense industries that are the backbone of the economy. Packaging companies, while still affected by market cycles, are always in demand. Their customer segments can be broadly broken up into consumer, industrial, and hygienic. Industry research firm Smithers Pira expects consumer packaging services to grow at 9.5% a year through 2022. They also peg growth of the industrial packaging segment at 3.2%, and hygienic applications at 3.9%.

In these interesting times, investors should be focused on companies that aren’t locked into any particular niche. Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE: BERY) spreads is sales fairly evenly across all three segments, and through consolidation, has become the number one or two player in the majority of its markets.


Favor Diverse Packaging Services Companies

A few clicks through Berry’s products on its website is overwhelming. They pride themselves on being a one-stop shop with nearly 100,000 product SKUs. The graphic below shows how the firm breaks its sales in thirds across three major categories which are not perfectly aligned with the general industry segments noted in the previous section. Industrial products are spread between Engineered Materials and Health/Hygiene. Since the product catalog is so broad and deep, the image below is also helpful in detailing each segment’s general outputs. A number of these are consumer staples such as hygienic products and white label or generic packaging for grocery retailers, and unlikely to be as affected by economic pressures.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: Feb. 2018 Investor Presentation

Revenues are not spread so evenly regionally which the company is currently addressing. Management stated in its most recent 10-K:

“We believe there are long term growth opportunities within the health, pharmaceuticals, personal care and food packaging markets existing outside of North America, especially in Asia, where expected per capita consumption increases should result in organic market growth.”

In the industry forecast, industry expert Smithers Pira agrees: “Consumption increases will continue to be driven primarily by the faster-growing transition economies of Asia, Central & Eastern Europe and Africa, rather than the more mature advanced economies of Western Europe, North America and Japan.”

Berry’s sales are still heavily tilted towards North America, which grew 11.4% in fiscal 2017 (in part via acquisition). While South America and Europe shrank, the important Asia region grew by 9.9%. Berry’s largest penetration into Asia has been in the Health/Hygiene segment which stands at 9% of sales. Its Consumer Packaging revenues are still 100% sourced in North America.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: November 2017 10-K

Another view of revenue segmentation is positive: sales are not over-reliant on their biggest customers with the top 10 representing less than 20% of sales.

Part of sales growth in 2017 was due the acquisition of Clopay Plastic Products, a leader in the global supply of printed breathable films, which include everything from puppy house-training pads to medical gowns. The company believes in consolidating fragmented markets, and has made 44 acquisitions since 1988, and expects to continue to make strategic purchases where they can profit from synergies.

On the cost side, Berry should not be majorly impacted by the metal tariffs currently roiling the market but its main input (plastic resins) add a lot of variability into the outlook. Fifty percent of its COGS are due to cost of resin, and the market generally relies on pass-through contracts, where changes in prices are passed on to the manufacturer. Resin prices are tied to natural gas and crude oil prices.

Despite not being able to lock-in resin prices, the company has delivered stable net margin growth.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io

Berry’s dominance in North America has continued to fuel the company’s growth, but further penetration in Asia-Pacific and emerging markets is necessary to hit Wall Street’s targets. Despite expectations for higher resin costs and restructuring in South America, management increased its guidance for 2018, which they present in Operating and Free Cash Flow estimates in place of earnings. The chart below shows that Berry has been able to grow Free Cash Flow (after debt-related payments) despite its acquisitions.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io

Berry carries the second most amount of debt amongst its peers, and also has the second highest leverage as shown via Debt/Equity below. While this is not atypical of a manufacturing company, it does leave it more exposed to economic fluctuations. The company’s depdendend on the U.S. is a concern, but countering this issue is the fact that the company has deep roots in staples-type products, rather than a reliance on consumer discretionary offerings.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io


Wall Street Predicts Upside for Berry

Berry operates in a growing industry, rolling up fragmented markets, and has an established a history of growing margins and cash flow. Twelve of thirteen Wall Street analysts raised 2018 earnings estimates in the last month, and expect double-digit sales growth. As seen below in the graphic from finbox.io’s valuation dashboard, these Wall Street analysts are predicting nearly 30% upside. Confirmation via finbox.io’s quant-based Fair Value price of $72.25 per share offers 34.8% appreciation potential.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io

A peer comparison can help determine how Berry is priced relative to its competitors. The stock compares favorably in profit metrics as shown below. These metrics help establish the company is executing better than its rivals.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io

Price multiples aid in analyzing its relative valuation. Comparisons of sales and earnings multiples indicate the company’s stock is generally valued in line with its peers. This means investors are getting added value for an average priced company with superior execution.

However, earnings can be managed so taking a closer look at EBITDA multiples is generally better for peer comparison. Notice how Berry’s EBITDA multiples generally trade below the majority of its peers in the chart below.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io


Berry Global Conclusion: Strong Company, Strong Industry, 30%+ Upside

Berry is set to continue to profit from an economic expansion, but its tentacles into staples products and focus on Asia should limit exposure to any downturn. Healthy margins and a history of Free Cash Flow growth while consolidating fragmented market segments are indicative of a well-executing management team.

Supporting management’s plan is Wall Street’s expectation for nearly 30% appreciation. Confirming and complementing the qualitative component of professional analysts is Finbox.io’s Fair Value price, derived from a quantitative model. Additional evidence of a stock in position to ascend is the wholistic EV/FCF multiple, indicating that Berry is undervalued compared to its competitors. Investors should take note, despite being a boring company, thinking outside the box should payoff.


Author: Matt Hogan

Expertise: Valuation, financial statement analysis

Matt Hogan is a co-founder of finbox.io. His expertise is in investment decision making. Prior to finbox.io, Matt worked for an investment banking group providing fairness opinions in connection to stock acquisitions. He spent much of his time building valuation models to help clients determine an asset’s fair value. He believes that these same valuation models should be used by all investors before buying or selling a stock.

His work is frequently published at InvestorPlace, Benzinga, ValueWalk, AAII, Barron’s, Seeking Alpha and investing.com.

Matt can be reached at matt@finbox.io.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% Upside

//load.sumome.com/
Source: finbox.io investing ideas
Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% Upside

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% Upside

in INVESTING IDEAS by
  • In times of financial market anxiety, boring is good. The packaging services industry escapes some economic cyclicality while offering upside in international markets.
  • Berry’s approach of consolidating fragmented markets along with funding organic growth has produced superior execution metrics.
  • Wall Street analysts, quantitative valuation models, and a favorable Enterprise Value/Free Cash Flow comparison provide all the inputs needed for this manufacturer to appreciate.

It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% Upside

The financial world is very anxious right now because the news has been so good. The U.S. economy is a year short of a record ten-year expansion. Jobless claims are at 49-year lows, hourly earnings increased at their fastest annual pace in eight years, consumer sentiment is at all-time highs, manufacturing expanded at the fastest rate in 13 years.

However, there is a dark side. The Federal Reserve is charged with keeping both unemployment and inflation low. With a mature expansion and stock markets that have roared since the presidential election, the Fed’s tone has been increasingly hawkish. The market has also become worried about the cost and scarcity of manufacturing inputs, including labor. The cherry on top came today with President Trump announcing that he will set new across-the-board tariffs on steel and aluminum; spooking investors with the specter of a trade war.

As investors look at where to put their money in a market like this, they tend to start thinking of “boring.” Not the Elon Musk kind, but no-nonsense industries that are the backbone of the economy. Packaging companies, while still affected by market cycles, are always in demand. Their customer segments can be broadly broken up into consumer, industrial, and hygienic. Industry research firm Smithers Pira expects consumer packaging services to grow at 9.5% a year through 2022. They also peg growth of the industrial packaging segment at 3.2%, and hygienic applications at 3.9%.

In these interesting times, investors should be focused on companies that aren’t locked into any particular niche. Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE: BERY) spreads is sales fairly evenly across all three segments, and through consolidation, has become the number one or two player in the majority of its markets.


Favor Diverse Packaging Services Companies

A few clicks through Berry’s products on its website is overwhelming. They pride themselves on being a one-stop shop with nearly 100,000 product SKUs. The graphic below shows how the firm breaks its sales in thirds across three major categories which are not perfectly aligned with the general industry segments noted in the previous section. Industrial products are spread between Engineered Materials and Health/Hygiene. Since the product catalog is so broad and deep, the image below is also helpful in detailing each segment’s general outputs. A number of these are consumer staples such as hygienic products and white label or generic packaging for grocery retailers, and unlikely to be as affected by economic pressures.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: Feb. 2018 Investor Presentation

Revenues are not spread so evenly regionally which the company is currently addressing. Management stated in its most recent 10-K:

“We believe there are long term growth opportunities within the health, pharmaceuticals, personal care and food packaging markets existing outside of North America, especially in Asia, where expected per capita consumption increases should result in organic market growth.”

In the industry forecast, industry expert Smithers Pira agrees: “Consumption increases will continue to be driven primarily by the faster-growing transition economies of Asia, Central & Eastern Europe and Africa, rather than the more mature advanced economies of Western Europe, North America and Japan.”

Berry’s sales are still heavily tilted towards North America, which grew 11.4% in fiscal 2017 (in part via acquisition). While South America and Europe shrank, the important Asia region grew by 9.9%. Berry’s largest penetration into Asia has been in the Health/Hygiene segment which stands at 9% of sales. Its Consumer Packaging revenues are still 100% sourced in North America.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: November 2017 10-K

Another view of revenue segmentation is positive: sales are not over-reliant on their biggest customers with the top 10 representing less than 20% of sales.

Part of sales growth in 2017 was due the acquisition of Clopay Plastic Products, a leader in the global supply of printed breathable films, which include everything from puppy house-training pads to medical gowns. The company believes in consolidating fragmented markets, and has made 44 acquisitions since 1988, and expects to continue to make strategic purchases where they can profit from synergies.

On the cost side, Berry should not be majorly impacted by the metal tariffs currently roiling the market but its main input (plastic resins) add a lot of variability into the outlook. Fifty percent of its COGS are due to cost of resin, and the market generally relies on pass-through contracts, where changes in prices are passed on to the manufacturer. Resin prices are tied to natural gas and crude oil prices.

Despite not being able to lock-in resin prices, the company has delivered stable net margin growth.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io

Berry’s dominance in North America has continued to fuel the company’s growth, but further penetration in Asia-Pacific and emerging markets is necessary to hit Wall Street’s targets. Despite expectations for higher resin costs and restructuring in South America, management increased its guidance for 2018, which they present in Operating and Free Cash Flow estimates in place of earnings. The chart below shows that Berry has been able to grow Free Cash Flow (after debt-related payments) despite its acquisitions.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io

Berry carries the second most amount of debt amongst its peers, and also has the second highest leverage as shown via Debt/Equity below. While this is not atypical of a manufacturing company, it does leave it more exposed to economic fluctuations. The company’s depdendend on the U.S. is a concern, but countering this issue is the fact that the company has deep roots in staples-type products, rather than a reliance on consumer discretionary offerings.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io


Wall Street Predicts Upside for Berry

Berry operates in a growing industry, rolling up fragmented markets, and has an established a history of growing margins and cash flow. Twelve of thirteen Wall Street analysts raised 2018 earnings estimates in the last month, and expect double-digit sales growth. As seen below in the graphic from finbox.io’s valuation dashboard, these Wall Street analysts are predicting nearly 30% upside. Confirmation via finbox.io’s quant-based Fair Value price of $72.25 per share offers 34.8% appreciation potential.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io

A peer comparison can help determine how Berry is priced relative to its competitors. The stock compares favorably in profit metrics as shown below. These metrics help establish the company is executing better than its rivals.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io

Price multiples aid in analyzing its relative valuation. Comparisons of sales and earnings multiples indicate the company’s stock is generally valued in line with its peers. This means investors are getting added value for an average priced company with superior execution.

However, earnings can be managed so taking a closer look at EBITDA multiples is generally better for peer comparison. Notice how Berry’s EBITDA multiples generally trade below the majority of its peers in the chart below.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% UpsideSource: finbox.io


Berry Global Conclusion: Strong Company, Strong Industry, 30%+ Upside

Berry is set to continue to profit from an economic expansion, but its tentacles into staples products and focus on Asia should limit exposure to any downturn. Healthy margins and a history of Free Cash Flow growth while consolidating fragmented market segments are indicative of a well-executing management team.

Supporting management’s plan is Wall Street’s expectation for nearly 30% appreciation. Confirming and complementing the qualitative component of professional analysts is Finbox.io’s Fair Value price, derived from a quantitative model. Additional evidence of a stock in position to ascend is the wholistic EV/FCF multiple, indicating that Berry is undervalued compared to its competitors. Investors should take note, despite being a boring company, thinking outside the box should payoff.


Author: Matt Hogan

Expertise: Valuation, financial statement analysis

Matt Hogan is a co-founder of finbox.io. His expertise is in investment decision making. Prior to finbox.io, Matt worked for an investment banking group providing fairness opinions in connection to stock acquisitions. He spent much of his time building valuation models to help clients determine an asset’s fair value. He believes that these same valuation models should be used by all investors before buying or selling a stock.

His work is frequently published at InvestorPlace, Benzinga, ValueWalk, AAII, Barron’s, Seeking Alpha and investing.com.

Matt can be reached at matt@finbox.io.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% Upside

//load.sumome.com/
Source: finbox.io investing ideas
Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) Wrapped & Sealed With 30% Upside

Daniel Loeb’s 7 Largest Stock Purchases In Q4

in INVESTING IDEAS by

Daniel Loeb's 7 Largest Stock Purchases In Q4

Third Point’s form 13F filed on February 14th highlights recent stocks purchases including Alphabet Inc Class A (Nasdaq: GOOGL), Intercontinental Exchange Inc (NYSE: ICE), and Netflix, Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX).


Activist Investing: Creating the Catalyst to Unlock Value

Third Point’s website defines its investment approach as flexible and opportunistic, as well as event-driven and value-oriented. It goes on to say that

“the firm seeks to identify situations where we anticipate a catalyst will unlock value.”

Very often the catalyst is Daniel Loeb and his shareholder activism. He looks for companies that are in trouble, and that he believes are badly managed. He likes to buy enough stock to gain influence, and then convince other shareholders to push for changes in management and strategy.

This shareholder activism invites controversy. Loeb often finds himself in the media defending his position and is not afraid to get into public arguments with those he disagrees with. Warren Buffett, George Clooney, the CEOs of Sony and Yahoo, and fellow activist investor Bill Ackman have all found themselves on the receiving end of his verbal attacks.


Third Point’s 7 Largest Purchases

On February 14th, Daniel Loeb’s firm Third Point filed its quarterly Form 13F regulatory filing. I reviewed the filing to gain a glimpse into the firm’s large portfolio.

Third Point’s stock portfolio totals $13.9 billion according to the latest filing. The list value of stock holdings is up 16.5% when compared to the last quarter. As a benchmark, the S&P 500 was up 6.1% over the same period.

The Ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed below at the Third Point page.

Here’s the list of the biggest stock purchases determined by comparing the last two filings:

Third Point 7 Largest Purchases
Ticker Name Purchased ($mil) % Of Portfolio
Nasdaq:GOOGL Alphabet Inc $395.0 5.2%
NYSE:ICE Intercontinental Exchange Inc $388.1 2.8%
Nasdaq:NFLX Netflix, Inc. $383.9 2.8%
NYSE:LEN Lennar Corporation $335.2 2.4%
NYSE:AET Aetna Inc $333.7 2.4%
NYSE:TWX Time Warner Inc $297.3 4.0%
Nasdaq:XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc $131.7 1.0%

Five out of the seven stock purchases above were also new positions made by Daniel Loeb’s Third Point.

The largest stock purchase for the quarter was Alphabet Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOGL). Third Point increased its position in the company by $395.0 million and the stock now represents 5.2% of the firm’s portfolio.

The next largest stock purchase was Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE). This was also a new position for the investment manager. It purchased a new $388.1 million position that now represents 2.8% of the firm’s portfolio.

The third largest stock purchase was also a new position. Mr. Loeb’s $383.9 million addition of Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) now represents 2.8% of the firm’s portfolio.

The next largest stock purchase was Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN). The investment manager purchased a new $335.2 million position in the homebuilder in the fourth quarter.

The fifth largest stock purchase was Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET). Third Point’s $333.7 million equity purchase was a new position for the hedge fund and now represents 2.4% of its portfolio.

The sixth largest stock purchase for the quarter was Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX). Third Point increased its position in the company by $297.3 million. Mr. Loeb now 6,000,000 million shares of the media giant worth nearly $550 million.

The seventh largest stock purchase for the quarter was DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc (Nasdaq: XRAY). Third Point added a new $131.7 million position in the dental care manufacturer.


Why Third Point’s Worth Following

Daniel Loeb has made a name for himself generating impressive, and consistent, returns over the last two decades. In the process he has amassed a fortune of $3.2 billion, putting him at number 240 on the Forbes 400 list.

Loeb founded Third Point in 1995 and now runs two hedge funds. He started the company with $3.3 million from family and friends, in office space borrowed from David Tepper’s Appaloosa Capital. The Third Point Offshore Limited fund has generated annual returns of 15.8% since inception (1996) while the Ultra Limited fund has generated returns of 23.7% since its inception in 1997. This compares favorably to the S&P500 which has averaged less than 8% per year since 1997.

With these types of returns, investors would be wise to take a closer look his holdings mentioned above. However, it is important to note that these filings are due 45 days after the quarter end date. Therefore, Loeb’s holdings above represent positions held as of December 31st and not necessarily reflective of the fund’s current stock positions. Nevertheless, the firm’s QoQ Turnover is not unreasonably high meaning it’s likely worth following his investments.


Author: Matt Hogan

Expertise: Valuation, financial statement analysis

Matt Hogan is a co-founder of finbox.io. His expertise is in investment decision making. Prior to finbox.io, Matt worked for an investment banking group providing fairness opinions in connection to stock acquisitions. He spent much of his time building valuation models to help clients determine an asset’s fair value. He believes that these same valuation models should be used by all investors before buying or selling a stock.

His work is frequently published at InvestorPlace, Benzinga, ValueWalk, AAII, Barron’s, Seeking Alpha and investing.com.

Matt can be reached at matt@finbox.io.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Daniel Loeb's 7 Largest Stock Purchases In Q4

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Source: finbox.io mavericks analysis
Daniel Loeb’s 7 Largest Stock Purchases In Q4

Daniel Loeb's 7 Largest Stock Purchases In Q4

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Daniel Loeb's 7 Largest Stock Purchases In Q4

Third Point’s form 13F filed on February 14th highlights recent stocks purchases including Alphabet Inc Class A (Nasdaq: GOOGL), Intercontinental Exchange Inc (NYSE: ICE), and Netflix, Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX).


Activist Investing: Creating the Catalyst to Unlock Value

Third Point’s website defines its investment approach as flexible and opportunistic, as well as event-driven and value-oriented. It goes on to say that

“the firm seeks to identify situations where we anticipate a catalyst will unlock value.”

Very often the catalyst is Daniel Loeb and his shareholder activism. He looks for companies that are in trouble, and that he believes are badly managed. He likes to buy enough stock to gain influence, and then convince other shareholders to push for changes in management and strategy.

This shareholder activism invites controversy. Loeb often finds himself in the media defending his position and is not afraid to get into public arguments with those he disagrees with. Warren Buffett, George Clooney, the CEOs of Sony and Yahoo, and fellow activist investor Bill Ackman have all found themselves on the receiving end of his verbal attacks.


Third Point’s 7 Largest Purchases

On February 14th, Daniel Loeb’s firm Third Point filed its quarterly Form 13F regulatory filing. I reviewed the filing to gain a glimpse into the firm’s large portfolio.

Third Point’s stock portfolio totals $13.9 billion according to the latest filing. The list value of stock holdings is up 16.5% when compared to the last quarter. As a benchmark, the S&P 500 was up 6.1% over the same period.

The Ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed below at the Third Point page.

Here’s the list of the biggest stock purchases determined by comparing the last two filings:

Third Point 7 Largest Purchases
Ticker Name Purchased ($mil) % Of Portfolio
Nasdaq:GOOGL Alphabet Inc $395.0 5.2%
NYSE:ICE Intercontinental Exchange Inc $388.1 2.8%
Nasdaq:NFLX Netflix, Inc. $383.9 2.8%
NYSE:LEN Lennar Corporation $335.2 2.4%
NYSE:AET Aetna Inc $333.7 2.4%
NYSE:TWX Time Warner Inc $297.3 4.0%
Nasdaq:XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc $131.7 1.0%

Five out of the seven stock purchases above were also new positions made by Daniel Loeb’s Third Point.

The largest stock purchase for the quarter was Alphabet Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOGL). Third Point increased its position in the company by $395.0 million and the stock now represents 5.2% of the firm’s portfolio.

The next largest stock purchase was Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE). This was also a new position for the investment manager. It purchased a new $388.1 million position that now represents 2.8% of the firm’s portfolio.

The third largest stock purchase was also a new position. Mr. Loeb’s $383.9 million addition of Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) now represents 2.8% of the firm’s portfolio.

The next largest stock purchase was Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN). The investment manager purchased a new $335.2 million position in the homebuilder in the fourth quarter.

The fifth largest stock purchase was Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET). Third Point’s $333.7 million equity purchase was a new position for the hedge fund and now represents 2.4% of its portfolio.

The sixth largest stock purchase for the quarter was Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX). Third Point increased its position in the company by $297.3 million. Mr. Loeb now 6,000,000 million shares of the media giant worth nearly $550 million.

The seventh largest stock purchase for the quarter was DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc (Nasdaq: XRAY). Third Point added a new $131.7 million position in the dental care manufacturer.


Why Third Point’s Worth Following

Daniel Loeb has made a name for himself generating impressive, and consistent, returns over the last two decades. In the process he has amassed a fortune of $3.2 billion, putting him at number 240 on the Forbes 400 list.

Loeb founded Third Point in 1995 and now runs two hedge funds. He started the company with $3.3 million from family and friends, in office space borrowed from David Tepper’s Appaloosa Capital. The Third Point Offshore Limited fund has generated annual returns of 15.8% since inception (1996) while the Ultra Limited fund has generated returns of 23.7% since its inception in 1997. This compares favorably to the S&P500 which has averaged less than 8% per year since 1997.

With these types of returns, investors would be wise to take a closer look his holdings mentioned above. However, it is important to note that these filings are due 45 days after the quarter end date. Therefore, Loeb’s holdings above represent positions held as of December 31st and not necessarily reflective of the fund’s current stock positions. Nevertheless, the firm’s QoQ Turnover is not unreasonably high meaning it’s likely worth following his investments.


Author: Matt Hogan

Expertise: Valuation, financial statement analysis

Matt Hogan is a co-founder of finbox.io. His expertise is in investment decision making. Prior to finbox.io, Matt worked for an investment banking group providing fairness opinions in connection to stock acquisitions. He spent much of his time building valuation models to help clients determine an asset’s fair value. He believes that these same valuation models should be used by all investors before buying or selling a stock.

His work is frequently published at InvestorPlace, Benzinga, ValueWalk, AAII, Barron’s, Seeking Alpha and investing.com.

Matt can be reached at matt@finbox.io.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Daniel Loeb's 7 Largest Stock Purchases In Q4

//load.sumome.com/
Source: finbox.io mavericks analysis
Daniel Loeb’s 7 Largest Stock Purchases In Q4

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