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Discover and validate investing ideas with valuation models and charts.

5 Pershing Square Stocks Trading Below Fair Value

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Platform Specialty Products Corporation (NYSE: PAH) and Howard Hughes Corporation (NYSE: HHC) are among the top stocks that Bill Ackman owns which appear to have the most upside potential based on consensus street estimates. Value investors may want to take a closer look at the names below.


Pershing Square’s 7 Bullish Analyst Targets

Banks and brokerages often release 12 to 18 month price targets for the stocks they cover. Analyst upgrades and downgrades alone can often impact a company’s stock price.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham

The table below ranks stocks in Pershing Square’s portfolio with most bullish analyst targets:

Pershing Square 7 Bullish Analyst Targets
Ticker Name Upside (Analyst Target) % Of Portfolio
PAH PLATFORM SPECIALTY PRODS COR 25.3% 8.1%
HHC HOWARD HUGHES CORP 22.1% 6.3%
UTX UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP 20.3% 5.1%
QSR RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC 17.5% 28.6%
MDLZ MONDELEZ INTL INC 17.3% 14.0%

Platform Specialty Products Corporation (NYSE: PAH) appears to be the most undervalued stock in the fund based on the average price target from Wall Street analysts.

Howard Hughes Corporation (The) (NYSE: HHC) appears to be the second most undervalued stock in the portfolio. The company’s upside of 22.1% is very intriguing. With 20.3% margin of safety, United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX) is the third most attractively priced security.


Why Follow Bill Ackman’s Portfolio?

Herbalife (NYSE: HLF). Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX). Target (NYSE: TGT). These are just a few of the companies that activist investor Bill Ackman has muscled his way into, some of which have left him tattered and others have catapulted him to billionaire status.

When Ackman invests, he places billion-dollar bets on a handful of companies. This Indiana Jones approach has led to some bruising defeats, including a nearly $4 billion loss from a misplaced Valeant position. With rare humility, Ackman apologized to his investors for what he coughed up as a mistake.

One of Ackman’s most infamous bets was his multi-year $1 billion short position on weight loss and nutritional supplements play Herbalife, a position he abandoned amid the rise of the company’s stock despite Ackman’s cries of a pyramid scheme. Although Ackman and Pershing Square have struggled recently, the hedge fund does have a track record of producing strong returns for investors.

The ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed above at the Pershing Square page.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

7 Point72 Asset Management Stocks With Big Sales Growth

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Clovis Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLVS) and Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADMS) are among the high growth stocks that Steven Cohen owns based on recent SEC filings. Growth investors may want to take a closer look at the names below.


Point72 Asset Management’s Fastest Growing Stocks

Analysts often look at companies as either thriving, surviving or dying. Analyzing a company’s revenue growth can help distinguish between these stages. Growth of over 10% typically signifies the core business is doing very well and the company’s products and services are in demand.

The table below lists 7 stocks in Point72 Asset Management’s portfolio that have strong top-line growth.

Point72 Asset Management Fastest Growing Stocks
Ticker Name Revenue Growth % Of Portfolio
CLVS CLOVIS ONCOLOGY INC 840.5% 0.3%
ADMS ADAMAS PHARMACEUTICALS INC 686.9% 0.2%
ACAD ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC 386.0% 0.4%
CDEV CENTENNIAL RESOURCE DEV INC 303.8% 0.2%
PTEN PATTERSON UTI ENERGY INC 200.5% 0.5%
ICUI ICU MED INC 163.7% 0.2%
XOG EXTRACTION OIL AND GAS INC 130.9% 0.2%

Clovis Oncology, Inc. (NasdaqGS: CLVS) is the fastest growing company in Point72 Asset Management’s portfolio. The company’s LTM total revenue of $67 million is up 840.5% year-over-year. Very impressive. Note that the stock price is down -48.8% over the last twelve months.

Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADMS) appears to be the second highest growth stock in the portfolio. The company’s latest top-line improvement of 686.9% is very intriguing. With 386.0% LTM sales growth, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ACAD) is the third fastest growing company in Steven Cohen’s portfolio.

Other notable growth stocks include Centennial Resource Development, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDEV), Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTEN), ICU Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ICUI) and Extraction Oil & Gas, Inc. (NASDAQ: XOG).


Why Follow Steven Cohen’s Portfolio?

If you haven’t heard of Billionaire Steven Cohen, you may already know a little about him if you’ve watched Showtime’s hit series Billions. Damian Lewis plays the show’s main character Bobby Axelrod that very loosely portrays Cohen and his former hedge fund SAC Capital.

The show focuses on a district attorney (played by Paul Giamatti) whose sole focus is to take down Axelrod on securities fraud. Cohen’s hedge fund, SAC Capital, was similarly charged with insider trading in 2013 and ultimately settled out of court for $1.8 billion in the largest securities fraud case ever. The Showtime series is very entertaining, albeit pure entertainment, and not entirely an accurate representation of Cohen.

Investing morality aside, Cohen’s real-life results are undeniable. He was the third highest-earning hedge fund manager of 2012 when he made $1.4 billion.

Steven Cohen has generally shied away from the press even before the SEC’s investigation making it difficult to truly understand his investment approach. However, Jack Schwager shared a rare look into Cohen’s process in 2003 when he published Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America’s Top Stock Traders. Leading up to the interview with Cohen, Schwager highlighted that “in the seven years he has managed money, Cohen has averaged a compounded annual return of 45 percent.”

The ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed above at the Point72 Asset Management page.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

4 Most Undervalued Stocks In Bill Ackman’s Portfolio

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Pershing Square released its quarterly 13F filing with the SEC on May 15th. Applying Wall Street estimates and valuation models, I highlight the firm’s most undervalued stocks below.


Pershing Square’s Most Undervalued Holdings

To determine which stocks are trading below their intrinsic value, aka “fair value” I used the finbox.io Fair Value estimates. I also wanted to blend in some indication of which stocks might be ready to make a move up soon because they’re popular with Wall Street analysts.

I calculated an average using the finbox.io fair value upside and analyst upside to create a blended upside which I then used to rank the most undervalued holdings.

Here are the top stocks based on my calculations:

Pershing Square Most Undervalued Holdings
Ticker Name Upside (finbox.io) Upside (Analyst Target) Blend Upside
PAH PLATFORM SPECIALTY PRODS COR 34.9% 25.3% 30.1%
UTX UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP 12.4% 20.3% 16.3%
MDLZ MONDELEZ INTL INC 4.1% 17.3% 10.7%
QSR RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC -2.7% 17.5% 7.4%

Platform Specialty Products Corporation (NYSE: PAH) appears to be the most undervalued stock in the fund. The company has a blended upside of 30.1% relative to its current trading price. Value investors may want to take a deeper dive into the valuation of the company.

United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX) appears to be the second most undervalued stock in the portfolio. The company’s blended upside of 16.3% is very intriguing. With 10.7% margin of safety, Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDLZ) is the third most attractively priced security.


Final Thoughts

Herbalife (NYSE: HLF). Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX). Target (NYSE: TGT). These are just a few of the companies that activist investor Bill Ackman has muscled his way into, some of which have left him tattered and others have catapulted him to billionaire status.

When Ackman invests, he places billion-dollar bets on a handful of companies. This Indiana Jones approach has led to some bruising defeats, including a nearly $4 billion loss from a misplaced Valeant position. With rare humility, Ackman apologized to his investors for what he coughed up as a mistake.

One of Ackman’s most infamous bets was his multi-year $1 billion short position on weight loss and nutritional supplements play Herbalife, a position he abandoned amid the rise of the company’s stock despite Ackman’s cries of a pyramid scheme. Although Ackman and Pershing Square have struggled recently, the hedge fund does have a track record of producing strong returns for investors.

Managers with more than $100 million in qualifying assets under management are required to disclose their holdings to the SEC each quarter via 13F filings. Qualifying assets include long positions in U.S. equities and ADRs, call/put options, and convertible debt securities. Shorts, cash positions, foreign investments and other assets are not included. It is important to note that these filings are due 45 days after the quarter end date. Therefore, Pershing Square’s holdings above represent positions held as of March 31st and not necessarily reflective of the fund’s current stock holdings.

However, most can agree that with thousands of stocks traded on U.S. exchanges, doing thorough research on each one is nearly impossible for smaller investors. Leveraging the resources of the largest hedge funds on Wall Street can be a powerful way to narrow down the list.

The ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed above at the Pershing Square page.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Grupo Supervielle (NYSE: SUPV) and Pampa Energia (NYSE: PAM) Among the Most Undervalued Third Point Holdings

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Here is what Wall Street believes are the most attractively priced stocks in Daniel Loeb’s portfolio. Investors may want to take a closer look at the names below.


Third Point’s 7 Bullish Analyst Targets

Banks and brokerages often release 12 to 18 month price targets for the stocks they cover. Analyst upgrades and downgrades alone can often impact a company’s stock price.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham

The table below ranks stocks in Third Point’s portfolio with most bullish analyst targets:

Third Point 7 Bullish Analyst Targets
Ticker Name Upside (Analyst Target) % Of Portfolio
SUPV GRUPO SUPERVIELLE S A 104.6% 0.3%
PAM PAMPA ENERGIA S A 84.3% 0.5%
GGAL GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA S A 62.9% 0.9%
LEN LENNAR CORP 46.5% 2.8%
GRBK GREEN BRICK PARTNERS INC 42.9% 0.7%
MHK MOHAWK INDS INC 32.2% 1.5%
MPC MARATHON PETE CORP 27.2% 1.1%

Grupo Supervielle S.A. (NYSE: SUPV) appears to be the most undervalued stock in the fund based on the average price target from Wall Street analysts.

Pampa Energia S.A. (NYSE: PAM) appears to be the second most undervalued stock in the portfolio. The company’s upside of 84.3% is very intriguing. With 62.9% margin of safety, Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (NASDAQ: GGAL) is the third most attractively priced security.

Other notable holdings with nice upside potential includes Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN), Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRBK), Mohawk Industries, Inc. (NYSE: MHK) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC).


Why It’s Worth Monitoring Third Point Holdings

Daniel Loeb has made a name for himself generating impressive, and consistent, returns over the last two decades. In the process he has amassed a fortune of $3.2 billion, putting him at number 240 on the Forbes 400 list.

Loeb founded Third Point in 1995 that now runs two hedge funds. He started the company with $3.3 million from family and friends, in office space borrowed from David Tepper’s Appaloosa Capital. The Third Point Offshore Limited fund has generated annual returns of 15.8% since inception (1996) while the Ultra Limited fund has generated returns of 23.7% since its inception in 1997. This compares favorably to the S&P500 which has averaged less than 8% per year since 1997.

His investment style involves shareholder activism meaning he invites controversy. Loeb, therefore, finds himself in the media often and is not afraid to get into public arguments with those he disagrees with. Warren Buffett, George Clooney, the CEOs of Sony and Yahoo, and fellow activist investor Bill Ackman have all found themselves on the receiving end of his verbal attacks.

Managers with more than $100 million in qualifying assets under management are required to disclose their holdings to the SEC each quarter via 13F filings. Qualifying assets include long positions in U.S. equities and ADRs, call/put options, and convertible debt securities. Shorts, cash positions, foreign investments and other assets are not included. It is important to note that these filings are due 45 days after the quarter end date. Therefore, Third Point’s holdings above represent positions held as of March 31st and not necessarily reflective of the fund’s current stock holdings.

However, most can agree that with thousands of stocks traded on U.S. exchanges, doing thorough research on each one is nearly impossible for smaller investors. Leveraging the resources of the largest hedge funds on Wall Street can be a powerful way to narrow down the list.

The ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed above at the Third Point page.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Stocks In Steven Cohen’s Portfolio That Wall Street Loves

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Point72 Asset Management released its quarterly 13F filing with the SEC on May 15th. Applying Wall Street price targets, I highlight the firm’s most undervalued stocks below.


Point72 Asset Management’s 7 Bullish Analyst Targets

Banks and brokerages often release 12 to 18 month price targets for the stocks they cover. Analyst upgrades and downgrades alone can often impact a company’s stock price.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham

The table below ranks stocks in Point72 Asset Management’s portfolio with most bullish analyst targets:

Point72 Asset Management 7 Bullish Analyst Targets
Ticker Name Upside (Analyst Target) % Of Portfolio
ADMS ADAMAS PHARMACEUTICALS INC 114.2% 0.2%
DVAX DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORP 81.8% 0.4%
PBYI PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY INC 74.5% 0.4%
CLVS CLOVIS ONCOLOGY INC 63.3% 0.3%
RDUS RADIUS HEALTH INC 57.2% 0.3%
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORP 52.3% 0.6%
OI OWENS ILL INC 49.0% 0.2%

Adamas Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NasdaqGM: ADMS) appears to be the most undervalued stock in the fund based on the average price target from Wall Street analysts.

Dynavax Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: DVAX) appears to be the second most undervalued stock in the portfolio. The company’s upside of 81.8% is very intriguing. With 74.5% margin of safety, Puma Biotechnology Inc (NYSE: PBYI) is the third most attractively priced security.

Other notable holdings with nice upside potential includes Clovis Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLVS), Radius Health, Inc. (NASDAQ: RDUS), Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) and Owens-Illinois, Inc. (NYSE: OI).


Final Thoughts

If you haven’t heard of Billionaire Steven Cohen, you may already know a little about him if you’ve watched Showtime’s hit series Billions. Damian Lewis plays the show’s main character Bobby Axelrod that very loosely portrays Cohen and his former hedge fund SAC Capital.

The show focuses on a district attorney (played by Paul Giamatti) whose sole focus is to take down Axelrod on securities fraud. Cohen’s hedge fund, SAC Capital, was similarly charged with insider trading in 2013 and ultimately settled out of court for $1.8 billion in the largest securities fraud case ever. The Showtime series is very entertaining, albeit pure entertainment, and not entirely an accurate representation of Cohen.

Investing morality aside, Cohen’s real-life results are undeniable. He was the third highest-earning hedge fund manager of 2012 when he made $1.4 billion.

Steven Cohen has generally shied away from the press even before the SEC’s investigation making it difficult to truly understand his investment approach. However, Jack Schwager shared a rare look into Cohen’s process in 2003 when he published Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America’s Top Stock Traders. Leading up to the interview with Cohen, Schwager highlighted that “in the seven years he has managed money, Cohen has averaged a compounded annual return of 45 percent.”

Managers with more than $100 million in qualifying assets under management are required to disclose their holdings to the SEC each quarter via 13F filings. Qualifying assets include long positions in U.S. equities and ADRs, call/put options, and convertible debt securities. Shorts, cash positions, foreign investments and other assets are not included. It is important to note that these filings are due 45 days after the quarter end date. Therefore, Point72 Asset Management’s holdings above represent positions held as of March 31st and not necessarily reflective of the fund’s current stock holdings.

However, most can agree that with thousands of stocks traded on U.S. exchanges, doing thorough research on each one is nearly impossible for smaller investors. Leveraging the resources of the largest hedge funds on Wall Street can be a powerful way to narrow down the list.

The ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed above at the Point72 Asset Management page.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Should You Sell Coupa Software Incorporated (NASDAQ: COUP) at $62.97?

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Coupa Software Incorporated (NASDAQ: COUP), an information technology firm with a market capitalization of $3.6 billion, saw its share price increase by 22.9% over the last month. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could shares still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s take a look at Vince’s outlook and value based on its most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.


Is Vince Still Cheap?

According to my valuation models, the stock is currently overvalued by approximately -34.4%, trading at $62.97 compared to its intrinsic value of $41.31. Not the best news for investors looking to buy!

Coupa Software Incorporated Valuation Detail
Analysis Model Fair Value Upside (Downside)
10-yr DCF Revenue Exit $40.21 -36.1%
5-yr DCF Revenue Exit $49.31 -21.7%
Peer Revenue Multiples $34.41 -45.4%
Average $41.31 -34.4%

Click on any of the analyses above to view the latest model with real-time data.

However, will there be another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Vince’s stock is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) could mean the price can sink lower, giving investors another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.


What Does The Future Of Vince Look Like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations.

Vince projected revenue chartsource: finbox.io data explorer

Vince’s revenue growth is expected to average 21.4% over the next five fiscal years, indicating a solid future ahead. Unless expenses grow at the same level, or higher, this top-line growth should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.


How This Impacts You

Many investors separate stocks into value and growth categories based on quantitative metrics. However, one of the most famous investors in the world views this as foolish. In Warren Buffett’s 1992 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett touches upon a subject at odds with much of the investment industry:

“Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: ‘value’ and ‘growth.’ Indeed, many investment professionals see any mixing of the two terms as a form of intellectual cross-dressing. We view that as fuzzy thinking… In our opinion, the two approaches are joined at the hip: Growth is always a component in the calculation of value.”

While investors tend to categorize stocks into value and growth, some of the most successful investors view growth as simply one component of a company’s value.

Vince has positioned itself so that double-digit growth appears to be a reasonable assumption for the foreseeable future. However, this growth does not look highly attractive at current trading levels. As such, investors may want to hold off on buying or adding to their COUP position for the time being.

But before making an investment decision, I recommend you continue to research Vince to get a more comprehensive view of the company by looking at:

Risk Metrics: what is Vince’s cash ratio which is used to assess a company’s short-term liquidity. View the company’s cash ratio here.

Valuation Metrics: what is Vince’s free cash flow yield and how does it compare to its publicly traded peers? This metric measures the amount of free cash flow for each dollar of equity (market capitalization). Analyze the free cash flow yield here.

Efficiency Metrics: return on equity is used to measure the return that a firm generates on the book value of common equity. View Vince’s return on equity here.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

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