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Discover and validate investing ideas with valuation models and charts.

Time To Sell Wayfair Inc. (NYSE: W)?

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Wayfair Inc. (NYSE: W) investors have enjoyed seeing the stock price increase by 85.2% over the prior three months. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s take a look at the company’s expected growth and valuation based on its most recent financial data to see if there is further upside moving forward.


What’s The Opportunity In Wayfair?

Wayfair appears to be overvalued by -15.8% at the moment, based on 6 separate valuation models. The stock is currently trading at $115.91 on the market compared to our average intrinsic value of $97.62. This means that the buying opportunity has probably disappeared for now.

Wayfair Inc. Valuation Detail
Analysis Model Fair Value Upside (Downside)
10-yr DCF Revenue Exit $133.03 14.8%
5-yr DCF Revenue Exit $139.43 20.3%
Peer Revenue Multiples $90.87 -21.6%
10-yr DCF EBITDA Exit $87.80 -24.3%
5-yr DCF EBITDA Exit $47.05 -59.4%
10-yr DCF Growth Exit $87.53 -24.5%
Average $97.62 -15.8%

Click on any of the analyses above to view the latest model with real-time data.

However, will there be another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Wayfair’s stock is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) could mean the price can sink lower, giving investors another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its beta of 1.75, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.


Can We Expect Growth From Wayfair?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matters the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price.

Wayfair projected revenue chartsource: finbox.io data explorer

Wayfair’s revenue growth is expected to average 24.7% over the next five fiscal years, indicating a solid future ahead. Unless expenses grow at the same level, or higher, this top-line growth should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.


What This Means For Investors

Growth investors typically look to invest in companies that are expanding sales, gaining market share and building customer bases. On the other hand, value investors often argue that the most successful investments are in companies that deliver the highest cash flows while trading at the lowest valuation.

But why not put those hands together? A company that has both growth and value characteristics would certainly make the most attractive investment. So what did we find out about Wayfair?

Wayfair has positioned itself so that double-digit growth appears to be a reasonable assumption for the foreseeable future. However, this growth does not look highly attractive at current trading levels. As such, investors may want to hold off on buying or adding to their W position for the time being.

It is important to note that there are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on Wayfair by taking a look at the following:

Valuation Metrics: how much upside do shares of Wayfair have based on the Ben Graham Formula? Take a look at our Ben Graham Formula data explorer which also compares the company’s upside to its peers.

Risk Metrics: what is Wayfair’s Altman Z score? It’s a famous formula used to predict the probability that a firm will go into bankruptcy within two years. View the company’s Altman Z score here.

Efficiency Metrics: how much free cash flow does Wayfair generate as a percentage of total sales? Has it been increasing or decreasing over time? Review the firm’s free cash flow margin here.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Mednax, Inc (NYSE: MD) and WESCO International, Inc. (NYSE: WCC) Among Top Blue Harbour Holdings With Upside

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Here are the most attractively priced stocks in Clifton Robbins’ portfolio. Investors may want to take a closer look at the names below.


Blue Harbour Group’s Most Undervalued Holdings

To determine which stocks are trading below their intrinsic value, aka “fair value” I used the finbox.io Fair Value estimates. I also wanted to blend in some indication of which stocks might be ready to make a move up soon because they’re popular with Wall Street analysts.

I calculated an average using the finbox.io fair value upside and analyst upside to create a blended upside which I then used to rank the most undervalued holdings.

Here are the top stocks based on my calculations:

Blue Harbour Group Most Undervalued Holdings
Ticker Name Upside (finbox.io) Upside (Analyst Target) Blend Upside
MD MEDNAX INC 51.5% 20.0% 35.7%
WCC WESCO INTL INC 45.4% 19.5% 32.5%
ON ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP 36.2% 18.8% 27.5%
MDRX ALLSCRIPTS HEALTHCARE SOLUTN 23.7% 27.1% 25.4%
COMM COMMSCOPE HLDG CO INC 26.0% 16.5% 21.2%
OTEX OPEN TEXT CORP 8.7% 20.7% 14.7%
JACK JACK IN THE BOX INC -2.6% 14.5% 5.9%

Mednax, Inc (NYSE: MD) appears to be the most undervalued stock in the fund. The company has a blended upside of 35.7% relative to its current trading price. Value investors may want to take a deeper dive into the valuation of the company.

WESCO International, Inc. (NYSE: WCC) appears to be the second most undervalued stock in the portfolio. The company’s blended upside of 32.5% is very intriguing. With 27.5% margin of safety, ON Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: ON) is the third most attractively priced security.

Other notable holdings with nice upside potential includes Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc.(NASDAQ: MDRX), CommScope Holding Company, Inc. (NASDAQ: COMM), Open Text Corporation (NASDAQ: OTEX) and Jack In The Box Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK).


Why It’s Worth Monitoring Blue Harbour Group Holdings

Clifton Robbins is a highly respected activist investor and the founder and CEO of Blue Harbour Group. While Blue Harbour is an activist investor, the company stresses that it only works collaboratively with management. In fact, the firm prides itself on the fact that it has never engaged in a proxy war or waged a media campaign against a company.

Before founding Blue Harbour, much of Clifton’s career was in private equity which appears to come through in his approach to investing. He likes to think like an owner, and ask the question: “if we owned the whole company what would we do differently?”

Robbins has a specific niche that he operates in. He looks for companies worth less than $10 billion where he believes the management team is strong but may not be aware of all the ways they can unlock value. He is only interested in working with leaders who are receptive to his ideas. Robbins has also stated he is not interested in fixing broken companies.

His focus therefore is on unlocking value in quality, well managed companies that he thinks are being undervalued by the market. Blue Harbour encourages companies to improve shareholder value by enhancing capital allocation strategies, executing strategic initiatives, and aligning management and shareholder interests. With a solid track record, it is worth taking a deeper look into his current equity holdings.

Managers with more than $100 million in qualifying assets under management are required to disclose their holdings to the SEC each quarter via 13F filings. Qualifying assets include long positions in U.S. equities and ADRs, call/put options, and convertible debt securities. Shorts, cash positions, foreign investments and other assets are not included. It is important to note that these filings are due 45 days after the quarter end date. Therefore, Blue Harbour Group’s holdings above represent positions held as of March 31st and not necessarily reflective of the fund’s current stock holdings.

However, most can agree that with thousands of stocks traded on U.S. exchanges, doing thorough research on each one is nearly impossible for smaller investors. Leveraging the resources of the largest hedge funds on Wall Street can be a powerful way to narrow down the list.

The ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed above at the Blue Harbour Group page.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Akre Capital Management Stocks Trading Below Intrinsic Value

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Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) are among the top stocks that Chuck Akre owns which appear to have the most upside potential based on underlying fundamentals. Value investors may want to take a closer look at the names below.


Akre Capital Management’s Most Undervalued Holdings

To determine which stocks are trading below their intrinsic value, aka “fair value” I used the finbox.io Fair Value estimates. I also wanted to blend in some indication of which stocks might be ready to make a move up soon because they’re popular with Wall Street analysts.

I calculated an average using the finbox.io fair value upside and analyst upside to create a blended upside which I then used to rank the most undervalued holdings.

Here are the top stocks based on my calculations:

Akre Capital Management Most Undervalued Holdings
Ticker Name Upside (finbox.io) Upside (Analyst Target) Blend Upside
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC 14.0% 23.2% 18.6%
BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL 6.6% 24.4% 15.5%
LKQ LKQ CORP -4.0% 34.5% 15.2%
BRK.A BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL 3.8% 24.8% 14.3%
KMX CARMAX INC 3.9% 12.5% 8.2%
ALRM ALARM COM HLDGS INC -2.0% 18.3% 8.2%
LAMR LAMAR ADVERTISING CO 7.0% 3.1% 5.1%

Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) appears to be the most undervalued stock in the fund. The company has a blended upside of 18.6% relative to its current trading price. Value investors may want to take a deeper dive into the valuation of the company.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) appears to be the second most undervalued stock in the portfolio. The company’s blended upside of 15.5% is very intriguing. With 15.2% margin of safety, LKQ Corporation (NASDAQ: LKQ) is the third most attractively priced security.

Other notable holdings with nice upside potential includes Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A), CarMax Inc (NYSE: KMX), Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALRM) and Lamar Advertising Company (NASDAQ: LAMR).


Why Follow Chuck Akre’s Portfolio?

Akre Capital prides itself on being extremely discerning when selecting stocks. The investment team obsesses over the quality of the people running a business and the rate of return. In a 2014 interview, Akre said he looks for companies that he thinks are ‘compounding machines.’ At the time the firm owned Mastercard Inc (NYSE: MA) and Visa Inc (NYSE: V) which he pointed out have margins of over 30%, which is around three times that of the average US company.

Akre and his colleagues also refer to what they call the ‘three-legged stool’ approach to finding compounding machines. The three requirements are exceptional people running the business, reinvestment acumen and opportunities for reinvestment. The last point is important because even if the management team is good at allocating capital, they can’t generate returns if there are no opportunities.

In 2015, Akre wrote an article in which he asserts that rate of return is the most important metric to use when evaluating an investment. He said that in most cases this can be measured by the growth in the book value of a share.

Akre capital often holds positions for over ten years. As long as a company is able to keep increasing its economic value, the firm will hold a stock. Although the firm is a long-term investor, Akre doesn’t attribute its success to ‘buy and hold’ investing, but to the quality of the companies they buy.

The ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed above at the Akre Capital Management page.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Should You Sell Twitter, Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) Now?

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Shares of Twitter, Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) are receiving a lot of investor interest as of late due to the stock’s 20.2% increase over the last month. Shareholders are now asking themselves whether the company’s current stock price is reflective of its true value or if shares have even further upside from here.

Let’s take a look at Twitter’s value and outlook based on its most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.


What Is Twitter Worth?

Twitter appears to be overvalued by -23.4% at the moment, based on 9 separate valuation models. The stock is currently trading at $44.98 on the market compared to our average intrinsic value of $34.47. This means that the opportunity to buy Twitter at a good price has disappeared.

Twitter, Inc. Valuation Detail
Analysis Model Fair Value Upside (Downside)
10-yr DCF Revenue Exit $30.76 -31.6%
5-yr DCF Revenue Exit $31.59 -29.8%
Peer Revenue Multiples $24.67 -45.1%
10-yr DCF EBITDA Exit $51.11 13.6%
5-yr DCF EBITDA Exit $60.19 33.8%
Peer EBITDA Multiples $32.41 -28.0%
10-yr DCF Growth Exit $32.18 -28.4%
5-yr DCF Growth Exit $33.59 -25.3%
Peer P/E Multiples $13.74 -69.5%
Average $34.47 -23.4%

Click on any of the analyses above to view the latest model with real-time data.

In addition to this, it seems like Twitter’s share price is quite stable, which could mean two things. One, it may take the share price a while to fall back down to an attractive buying range, and two, there may be less chances to buy low in the future once it reaches that value. This is because the stock is less volatile than the wider market given its low beta of 0.80.


How Much Growth Will Twitter Generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations.

Twitter projected ebitda chartsource: finbox.io data explorer

With EBITDA expected to grow on average of 30.0% over the next couple years, the future certainly appears bright for Twitter. It looks like higher cash flows are in the cards for shareholders, which should feed into a higher share valuation.


Next Steps

While many investors tend to categorize stocks as either value or growth plays, the most successful investors view growth in conjunction with a company’s value. Take legendary investor Peter Lynch for example, who is widely known for popularizing the term growth at a reasonable price (GARP).

GARP is a strategy that combines aspects of both growth and value investing techniques by finding high growth companies that don’t trade at overly high valuations. In the application of this strategy, Lynch achieved 29% annualized returns as the manager of Fidelity’s Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990. Needless to say the importance of analyzing a company’s fair value in addition to its growth prospects.

Twitter has positioned itself so that double-digit growth appears to be a reasonable assumption for the foreseeable future. However, this growth does not look highly attractive at current trading levels. As such, investors may want to hold off on buying or adding to their TWTR position for the time being.

However, if you have not done so already, I highly recommend you complete your research on Twitter by taking a look at the following:

Efficiency Metrics: is management becoming more or less efficient over time? Find out by analyzing the company’s asset turnover ratio which measures the dollars in revenue a company generates per dollar of assets.

Risk Metrics: how is Twitter’s financial health? Find out by viewing our financial leverage data metric which plots the dollars in total assets for each dollar of common equity over time.

Valuation Metrics: how much upside do shares of Twitter have based on Wall Street’s consensus price target? Take a look at our analyst upside data explorer that compares the company’s upside relative to its peers.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Hostess Brands Inc (NASDAQ: TWNK) Offers Sweet 20% Upside

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  • Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have long put a premium on businesses that benefit from pricing power.
  • Sweet baked goods leader Hostess Brands Inc (NASDAQ: TWNK) portfolio of popular brands commands an 81% price premium over peers.
  • With finbox.io valuation models showing nearly 20% upside, Hostess Brands offers the rare combination of quality assets at a value price.

Prioritizing Pricing Power

In Charlie Munger’s 1994 commencement speech to students at the University of Southern California, Munger touched on the rarity of businesses that benefit from superior pricing power:

“There are actually businesses that you will find a few times in a lifetime where any manager could raise the return enormously just by raising prices.”

While these types of businesses are rare, Munger’s investing partner Warren Buffett also prioritizes the ability to raise prices:

“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you’ve got a terrible business.”

Buffett reiterated the importance of pricing power as an indicator of extraordinary businesses:

“The extraordinary business does not require good management.”

Perhaps a surprising comment to some, but it underscores Buffett’s belief in the value of pricing power. And for companies that benefit from pricing power but have a few question marks at management, Buffett’s comments should ease investor concern.

There may be no better example of such a company than Hostess Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TWNK). The producer of a plethora of beloved sweet baked goods recently transitioned to new management and benefits from superior pricing power (more on that below). What’s more, finbox.io valuation models show nearly 20% upside to recent trading levels. As such, let’s look at TWNK’s business model, recent results, and management’s strategic initiatives.


Hostess Brands’ Business Model

Hostess Brands is a leading developer, manufacturer, and marketer of fresh, sweet baked goods in the United States. The company has two reportable segments: “Sweet Baked Goods” ($733.8M in 2017 net revenue representing >90%) and “In-Store Bakery” ($42.4M). Within the Sweet Baked Goods (SBG) market category, Hostess is the second leading brand by market share and holds the leading market position within SBG’s two largest segments: Donut and Snack Cake.

Hostess’s portfolio of popular brands include Twinkies, Donettes, Ding Dongs, Suzy Qs, Fruit Pies, and Ho Hos. Customers include supermarkets, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience, and drug and dollar stores. In 2017, Wal-Mart and affiliates represented 20.4% of net revenue.


Latest Quarter Results, a Pricing Power Advantage, and Management Initiatives

First Quarter Results

Hostess Brands’ net revenue increased 13.1% (5.2% excluding its Cloverhill acquisition) in its fiscal 2018 first quarter ending March 31. Gains were attributed to continued momentum from product innovations. TWNK’s top 7 brands, representing 69% of net revenue, showed point-of-sale growth of 8.5%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $47 million compared to $54.5 million in the first quarter of 2017. Negative gross profit from the Chicago bakery and increased transportation costs drove the decline. Adjusted EPS was $0.14 ($0.15 in 2017) while cash flow and CapEx stood at $38.3 and $9.2 million respectively.

Pricing Power Premium

Within SBG, 60% of retail sales come from the category’s top three brands and private label has a limited presence (3.5%). Strong brand names, such as Hostess with 90% brand awareness, helps to solidify leadership. TWNK’s popular portfolio of brands have translated into pricing power over its peers:

TWNK Premium Price Point Chart

Source: Hostess Brands, Investor Presentation

Compared to category leader Little Debbie, Hostess’ products garner roughly an 80% premium. Premium pricing boosts profits for retailers, strengthening their ties to Hostess. The pricing advantage also looks to support efficiency measures; TWNK’s return on equity (16.8%) versus its cost of equity (10%) compares favorably to direct peers:

TWNK ROE Chart

Source: Hostess Brands, Return on Equity, finbox.io

Strategic Initiatives and Sources of Growth

Management has laid out a four-pronged approach for growth and efficiency, which includes expanding core distribution, product innovation, expanding white space, and acquisitions. Hostess has transitioned from a direct store distribution model to a warehouse model and management plans to leverage its favorable pricing economics to increase product-carrying stores.

Catering to the healthier eating trend, Hostess launched its Bakery Petites platform last year which features no artificial flavors or high fructose corn syrup. Management expects new product launches to post 1% growth in 2018. In-store bakery (ISB) also presents a source of growth, albeit at lower margins and a greater private label presence. Building on the Cloverhill bakery acquisition, Hostess is exploring opportunities in indulgent snacking and expanding ISB.


Estimating TWNK’s Intrinsic Value:

Incorporating these initiatives, Wall Street analysts see 11.7% revenue growth in 2018 and 25.7% EBITDA margin:

TWNK Forecast Table

Source: Hostess Brands 5-Year DCF Model, finbox.io

Over the next five years, revenue growth is expected to moderate to the mid-single digits as EBITDA margin expands.

TWNK Revenue growth Chart

Source: Hostess Bands, finbox.io Revenue Explorer

Assuming these forecasts across six Finbox.io valuation models produces an average estimate of intrinsic value of $15.54 per share. This suggests almost 15% upside to recent trading levels:

TWNK Fair Value Page

Source: Hostess Bands, finbox.io

Wall Street’s consensus 1-year target is even higher at $16.91, implying almost 25% upside. A blended estimate of intrinsic value (50% Wall Street consensus and 50% Finbox.io) results in a $16.23 per share estimate, or almost 20% upside. TWNK looks priced favorably to peers based on enterprise value and P/E multiples as well:

TWNK Multiples vs Peers Chart

Source: Hostess Brands, finbox.io Market Valuation


Risks:

Hostess Brands operates in a highly competitive industry with a trend towards healthier eating. Management’s ability to maintain market position and deliver on product innovation is significant. TWNK uses advance purchase contracts to lock in prices for raw materials, packaging, and fuel, but sustained volatility in these prices could affect profitability.


Hostess Brands Conclusion:

Buffett and Munger prefer to invest in companies that operate with strong pricing power. Hostess Brands has the ability to charge premium prices and product innovation looks to support growth. Trading with nearly 20% upside, value investors should give Hostess Brands a closer look.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

This article was originally published at finbox.io/blog.

Fastest Growing Stocks In Daniel Loeb’s Portfolio

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Third Point released its quarterly 13F filing with the SEC on May 15th. Analyzing the recent performance of the firm’s holdings, I highlight their fastest growing stocks below.


Third Point’s Fastest Growing Stocks

Analysts often look at companies as either thriving, surviving or dying. Analyzing a company’s revenue growth can help distinguish between these stages. Growth of over 10% typically signifies the core business is doing very well and the company’s products and services are in demand.

The table below lists 7 stocks in Third Point’s portfolio that have strong top-line growth.

Third Point Fastest Growing Stocks
Ticker Name Revenue Growth % Of Portfolio
BABA ALIBABA GROUP HLDG LTD 59.0% 5.5%
MELI MERCADOLIBRE INC 51.5% 0.3%
FB FACEBOOK INC 47.2% 4.8%
GGAL GRUPO FINANCIERO GALICIA S A 46.9% 0.9%
PAM PAMPA ENERGIA S A 43.5% 0.5%
DWDP DOWDUPONT INC 39.6% 6.7%
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LTD 34.9% 2.1%

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) is the fastest growing company in Third Point’s portfolio. The company’s LTM total revenue of $33,794 million is up 59.0% year-over-year. Very impressive. Note that the stock price is up 42.1% over the last twelve months.

MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) appears to be the second highest growth stock in the portfolio. The company’s latest top-line improvement of 51.5% is very intriguing. With 47.2% LTM sales growth, Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) is the third fastest growing company in Daniel Loeb’s portfolio.

Other notable growth stocks include Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (NASDAQ: GGAL), Pampa Energia S.A. (NYSE: PAM), Dow Chemical Company (The) (NYSE: DWDP) and Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN).


Final Thoughts

Daniel Loeb has made a name for himself generating impressive, and consistent, returns over the last two decades. In the process he has amassed a fortune of $3.2 billion, putting him at number 240 on the Forbes 400 list.

Loeb founded Third Point in 1995 that now runs two hedge funds. He started the company with $3.3 million from family and friends, in office space borrowed from David Tepper’s Appaloosa Capital. The Third Point Offshore Limited fund has generated annual returns of 15.8% since inception (1996) while the Ultra Limited fund has generated returns of 23.7% since its inception in 1997. This compares favorably to the S&P500 which has averaged less than 8% per year since 1997.

His investment style involves shareholder activism meaning he invites controversy. Loeb, therefore, finds himself in the media often and is not afraid to get into public arguments with those he disagrees with. Warren Buffett, George Clooney, the CEOs of Sony and Yahoo, and fellow activist investor Bill Ackman have all found themselves on the receiving end of his verbal attacks.

Managers with more than $100 million in qualifying assets under management are required to disclose their holdings to the SEC each quarter via 13F filings. Qualifying assets include long positions in U.S. equities and ADRs, call/put options, and convertible debt securities. Shorts, cash positions, foreign investments and other assets are not included. It is important to note that these filings are due 45 days after the quarter end date. Therefore, Third Point’s holdings above represent positions held as of March 31st and not necessarily reflective of the fund’s current stock holdings.

However, most can agree that with thousands of stocks traded on U.S. exchanges, doing thorough research on each one is nearly impossible for smaller investors. Leveraging the resources of the largest hedge funds on Wall Street can be a powerful way to narrow down the list.

The ideas section of finbox.io tracks top investors and trending investment themes. You can get the latest data on the holdings discussed above at the Third Point page.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

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