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Tower Semiconductor (NasdaqGS:TSEM) Q3 2020 Earnings Prep

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Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (NasdaqGS:TSEM) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on November 12, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.18/share on revenue of $309.7 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.18/share is based on a poll of 6 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −28.7% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.25/share.

The revenue forecast of $309.7 million based on a poll of 6 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −0.8%. Last year the company reported $312.1 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −28.7% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $309.67 $312.12 −0.8%
EPS $0.18 $0.25 −28.7%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 4 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 4 quarters.

What are your expectations from Tower Semiconductor Ltd. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.23 $0.22 −4.8% Missed
Q1, 2020 $0.19 $0.20 7.2% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.26 $0.22 −13.8% Missed
Q3, 2019 $0.24 $0.25 2.0% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.22 $0.24 7.5% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.29 $0.30 2.9% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.42 $0.41 −1.6% Missed
Q3, 2018 $0.40 $0.37 −8.3% Missed

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −7.7%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 29, 2020 $22.96 $21.19 −7.7% Decline
May 13, 2020 $20.12 $20.06 −0.3% Decline
February 18, 2020 $24.10 $22.24 −7.7% Decline
November 13, 2019 $23.04 $22.61 −1.9% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.87, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.87 implies a 0.2% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. is currently trading at $23.15/share, up 3.9% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 90.3% of its 52-week high of $25.80/share. The company’s stock price is up 9.2% since the last earnings report and up 9.9% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 74.48 suggests the company is trading in technically overbought territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:TSEM Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 31.51 and a forward P/E multiple of 25.84.

Tower Semiconductor Ltd.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.78. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 9, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $23.15
P/E Ratio 31.5x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 25.8x
PEG Ratio −0.9
Total Debt / Total Capital 11.2%
Levered Free Cash Flow $47.84 million
EV / EBITDA 6.8x

Finbox

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $2.39 billion and a total enterprise value of $1.959 billion. The company operates in the Information Technology sector and the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry.

Tower Semiconductor Ltd., an independent semiconductor foundry, manufactures and markets analog intensive mixed-signal semiconductor devices in the United States, Japan, Asia, and Europe. It provides various customizable process technologies, including SiGe, BiCMOS, mixed-signal/CMOS, RF CMOS, CMOS image sensor, integrated power management, and MEMS. The company also offers transfer optimization and development process services to integrated device manufacturers and fabless companies. It serves various markets, such as consumer electronics, personal computers, communications, automotive, industrial, aerospace, and medical device products. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Migdal Haemek, Israel.

Walt Disney Q4 Earnings: Is NYSE:DIS Expensive at 80.3x Forward P/E?

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The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 12, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.65/share on revenue of $14.14 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.65/share is based on a poll of 22 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −160.3% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $1.07/share.

The revenue forecast of $14.14 billion based on a poll of 18 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −26.0%. Last year the company reported $19.1 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.65/share for Q4, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $14,139.91 $19,100.00 −26.0%
EPS -$0.65 $1.07 −160.3%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 2 quarters.

What are your expectations from The Walt Disney Company for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2020 -$0.67 $0.08 111.9% Beat
Q2, 2020 $0.90 $0.60 −33.0% Missed
Q1, 2020 $1.44 $1.53 6.3% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.96 $1.07 11.0% Beat
Q3, 2019 $1.74 $1.35 −22.4% Missed
Q2, 2019 $1.57 $1.61 2.5% Beat
Q1, 2019 $1.57 $1.84 17.4% Beat
Q4, 2018 $1.35 $1.48 9.7% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 27, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 9.7%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 4, 2020 $116.35 $127.61 9.7% Increase
May 5, 2020 $103.18 $100.88 −2.2% Decline
February 4, 2020 $141.32 $141.37 0.0% Increase
November 7, 2019 $131.27 $137.96 5.1% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.87, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.87 implies a 0.2% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

The Walt Disney Company is currently trading at $141.79/share, up 11.2% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 90.2% of its 52-week high of $153.41/share. The company’s stock price is up 11.1% since the last earnings report and up 18.0% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 56.00 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:DIS Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −190.19 and a forward P/E multiple of 80.32.

The Walt Disney Company’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.94. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 9, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q3
Period End Date June 27, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $141.79
P/E Ratio −190.2x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 80.3x
PEG Ratio 1.6
Total Debt / Total Capital 21.9%
Levered Free Cash Flow $3.369 billion
EV / EBITDA 25.9x

Finbox

The Walt Disney Company is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $230.3 billion and a total enterprise value of $289.3 billion. The company operates in the Communication Services sector and the Entertainment industry.

The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment company worldwide. The company’s Media Networks segment operates domestic cable networks under the Disney, ESPN, Freeform, FX, and National Geographic brands; and television broadcast network under the ABC brand, as well as eight owned domestic television stations. This segment is also involved in the television production and distribution; and operation of National Geographic magazines. Its Parks, Experiences and Products segment operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort in Florida; Disneyland Resort in California; Disneyland Paris; Hong Kong Disneyland Resort; and Shanghai Disney Resort; Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney; and Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii, as well as licenses its intellectual property to a third party for the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort in Japan. The company’s Studio Entertainment segment produces and distributes motion pictures under the Walt Disney Pictures, Twentieth Century Fox, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, Fox Searchlight Pictures, and Blue Sky Studios banners; develops, produces, and licenses live entertainment events; produces and distributes music; and provides post-production services, including visual and audio effects. Its Direct-To-Consumer & International segment operates international television networks and channels comprising Disney, ESPN, Fox, National Geographic, Star, and Other India Channels; direct-to-consumer streaming services consisting of Disney +, ESPN+, Hotstar, and Hulu; and operates branded apps and Websites, such as Disney Movie Club and Disney Digital Network, as well as provides streaming technology support services. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.

MasterCraft Boat Q1 Earnings: Can NasdaqGM:MCFT Hit Its $0.33 EPS Target?

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MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (NasdaqGM:MCFT) is scheduled to report Q1 earnings results on November 11, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.33/share on revenue of $96.172 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33/share is based on a poll of 5 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −37.4% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.53/share.

The revenue forecast of $96.172 million based on a poll of 5 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −12.4%. Last year the company reported $109.8 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −37.4% for Q1, 2021
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $96.17 $109.79 −12.4%
EPS $0.33 $0.53 −37.4%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 7 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q4, 2020 -$0.18 -$0.10 45.9% Beat
Q3, 2020 $0.51 $0.46 −8.9% Missed
Q2, 2020 $0.35 $0.43 22.3% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.43 $0.53 21.8% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.81 $0.85 5.2% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.67 $0.78 16.7% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.59 $0.64 9.3% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.51 $0.54 5.9% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −20.3%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
September 9, 2020 $22.46 $17.91 −20.3% Decline
May 6, 2020 $10.12 $10.54 4.2% Increase
February 5, 2020 $17.16 $19.16 11.7% Increase
November 7, 2019 $16.51 $17.78 7.7% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −4.29, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −4.29 implies a 0.0% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. is currently trading at $22.73/share, down −0.2% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 95.2% of its 52-week high of $23.94/share. The company’s stock price is up 26.9% since the last earnings report and up 8.0% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 66.43 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGM:MCFT Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −17.88 and a forward P/E multiple of 11.81.

MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 8.80. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 9, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q4
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $22.73
P/E Ratio −17.9x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 11.8x
PEG Ratio 0.1
Total Debt / Total Capital 20.1%
Levered Free Cash Flow $15.957 million
EV / EBITDA 12.5x

Finbox

MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $432.3 million and a total enterprise value of $524.6 million. The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Leisure Products industry.

MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets recreational powerboats. It operates through three segments: MasterCraft, NauticStar, and Crest. The MasterCraft segment produces recreational performance sport boats and luxury day boats under the MasterCraft and Aviara brands, which are used for water skiing, wakeboarding, and wake surfing, as well as general recreational boating. The NauticStar segment offers boats that are primarily used for saltwater fishing and general recreational boating. The Crest segment produces pontoon boats for use in general recreational boating. The company also offers various accessories, including trailers and aftermarket parts. It sells its boats through a network of independent dealers in North America and internationally. The company was formerly known as MCBC Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. in November 2018. MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Vonore, Tennessee.

SpartanNash Q3 Earnings: Is NasdaqGS:SPTN Cheap at 0.9x Price/Book?

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baked box cheese close up

SpartanNash Company (NasdaqGS:SPTN) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 11, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.60/share on revenue of $2.137 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.60/share is based on a poll of 6 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 101.6% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.30/share.

The revenue forecast of $2.137 billion based on a poll of 4 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 6.9%. Last year the company reported $2 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of 101.6% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $2,137.04 $1,999.81 6.9%
EPS $0.60 $0.30 101.6%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 3 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 4 quarters, and met expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from SpartanNash Company for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.63 $0.73 16.3% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.48 $0.67 38.1% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.27 $0.23 −13.7% Missed
Q3, 2019 $0.38 $0.30 −20.3% Missed
Q2, 2019 $0.34 $0.34 0.0% Met
Q1, 2019 $0.31 $0.24 −21.9% Missed
Q4, 2018 $0.38 $0.32 −16.3% Missed
Q3, 2018 $0.48 $0.50 3.4% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending July 11, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −6.2%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 12, 2020 $21.58 $20.25 −6.2% Decline
May 27, 2020 $20.60 $20.68 0.4% Increase
February 19, 2020 $13.30 $14.74 10.8% Increase
November 6, 2019 $13.99 $12.63 −9.7% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.94, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.94 implies a 0.2% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

SpartanNash Company is currently trading at $18.45/share, up 0.2% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 77.7% of its 52-week high of $23.94/share. The company’s stock price is down −8.9% since the last earnings report and down −1.5% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 50.40 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:SPTN Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 13.12 and a forward P/E multiple of 7.07.

SpartanNash Company’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 0.91. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 9, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date July 11, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $18.45
P/E Ratio 13.1x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 7.1x
PEG Ratio 0.0
Total Debt / Total Capital 57.3%
Levered Free Cash Flow $200.9 million
EV / EBITDA 7.8x

Finbox

SpartanNash Company is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $641.6 million and a total enterprise value of $1.469 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Staples sector and the Food & Staples Retailing industry.

SpartanNash Company distributes and retails grocery products. It operates in three segments: Food Distribution, Military, and Retail. The Food Distribution segment offers approximately 52,000 stock-keeping units, such as dry groceries, produce, dairy products, meat, delicatessen items, bakery goods, frozen food, seafood, floral products, general merchandise, beverages, tobacco products, health and beauty care, and pharmacy products to independent retailers, national retailers, food service distributors, e-commerce providers, and corporate owned retail stores. This segment also offers various value-added services to retailers. The Military segment sells and distributes grocery products to military commissaries and exchanges located in 39 states across the United States and the District of Columbia, Europe, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Honduras, Bahrain, Djibouti, and Egypt. The Retail segment primarily operates neighborhood supermarkets. As of March 17, 2020, it operated 155 supermarkets, primarily under the banners of Family Fare, Martin’s Super Markets, D&W Fresh Market, VG’s Grocery, and Dan’s Supermarket. SpartanNash Company also markets and distributes private brand items primarily under the Our Family, Open Acres, Good to Go!, Nash’s Coffee, Crav’n Flavor, Culinary Tours, Top Care, Tippy Toes, Full Circle Market, Culinary Tours, PAWS Happy Life, Pure Harmony, Red Button Vintage Creamery, Stoked, and That’s Smart! brands. The company was formerly known as Spartan Stores, Inc. and changed its name to SpartanNash Company in November 2013. SpartanNash Company was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Oportun Financial Q3 Earnings Preview: NasdaqGS:OPRT Up 10.4% This Week

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pexels-photo-164527.jpeg

Oportun Financial Corporation (NasdaqGS:OPRT) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 10, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.06/share on revenue of $135.1 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.06/share is based on a poll of 6 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −108.9% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.64/share.

The revenue forecast of $135.1 million based on a poll of 3 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −12.2%. Last year the company reported $153.9 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.06/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $135.14 $153.90 −12.2%
EPS -$0.06 $0.64 −108.9%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 2 out of the last 4 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 2 quarters.

What are your expectations from Oportun Financial Corporation for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.07 -$1.29 −1,824.6% Missed
Q1, 2020 $0.18 -$0.04 −122.2% Missed
Q4, 2019 $0.63 $0.94 48.7% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.44 $0.64 44.1% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 5.3%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 6, 2020 $14.28 $15.03 5.3% Increase
May 14, 2020 $6.25 $6.84 9.4% Increase
February 27, 2020 $20.09 $21.03 4.7% Increase
November 12, 2019 $18.28 $19.84 8.5% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.95, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.95 implies a 0.2% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Oportun Financial Corporation is currently trading at $15.82/share, up 7.1% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 61.0% of its 52-week high of $25.84/share. The company’s stock price is up 5.3% since the last earnings report and up 18.3% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 62.02 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:OPRT Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −9.30 and a forward P/E multiple of −11.06.

Oportun Financial Corporation’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 0.95. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 9, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $15.82
P/E Ratio −9.3x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −11.1x
PEG Ratio 0.1
Total Debt / Total Capital 78.2%
Levered Free Cash Flow $205.4 million
EV / EBITDA –

Finbox

Oportun Financial Corporation is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $403.7 million. The company operates in the Financials sector and the Consumer Finance industry.

Oportun Financial Corporation provides financial services in the United States. It offers personal loans, auto loans, and credit cards. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in San Carlos, California.

Model N Q4 Earnings: Is NYSE:MODN Expensive at 82.0x Forward P/E?

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Model N, Inc. (NYSE:MODN) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results on November 10, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.09/share on revenue of $40.505 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09/share is based on a poll of 9 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −23.8% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.12/share.

The revenue forecast of $40.505 million based on a poll of 8 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 10.7%. Last year the company reported $36.603 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −23.8% for Q4, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $40.51 $36.60 10.7%
EPS $0.09 $0.12 −23.8%

Earnings Call Trends

Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 8 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance.

What are your expectations from Model N, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2020 $0.06 $0.15 135.8% Beat
Q2, 2020 $0.02 $0.07 227.3% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.06 $0.12 95.3% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.08 $0.12 52.7% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.01 $0.06 326.1% Beat
Q2, 2019 -$0.02 $0.01 142.1% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.01 $0.03 385.4% Beat
Q4, 2018 -$0.02 $0.06 450.1% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −1.4%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 4, 2020 $40.71 $40.13 −1.4% Decline
May 5, 2020 $27.54 $32.09 16.5% Increase
February 4, 2020 $31.05 $31.42 1.2% Increase
November 5, 2019 $29.58 $29.54 −0.1% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.91, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.91 implies a 0.2% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Model N, Inc. is currently trading at $36.68/share, up 3.1% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 83.5% of its 52-week high of $44.56/share. The company’s stock price is down −8.6% since the last earnings report and up 2.8% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 48.52 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:MODN Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −81.30 and a forward P/E multiple of 82.03.

Model N, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 10.53. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 9, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q3
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $36.68
P/E Ratio −81.3x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 82.0x
PEG Ratio −5.7
Total Debt / Total Capital 8.7%
Levered Free Cash Flow $12.628 million
EV / EBITDA −191.0x

Finbox

Model N, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $1.23 billion and a total enterprise value of $1.154 billion. The company operates in the Information Technology sector and the Software industry.

Model N, Inc. provides revenue management cloud solutions for the life sciences and technology companies. The company’s cloud-based revenue management solutions include Revenue Cloud for Pharma, Revenue Cloud for Med Tech, Revenue Cloud for High-Tech Manufacturing, and Revenue Cloud for Semiconductors and Components. It develops software applications, such as managed care and government pricing for life science companies; and channel incentives for technology companies. The company also offers revenue management processes, such as pricing, quoting, contracting, rebates, incentives, channel management, and regulatory compliance. In addition, Model N, Inc. provides implementation, managed, strategic, and customer support services. It primarily serves large and mid-sized organizations worldwide through its direct sales force. Model N, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California, with additional offices in the United States, India, and Switzerland.

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