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Grocery Outlet (NasdaqGS:GO) Q3 2020 Earnings Prep

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NasdaqGS:GO) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 10, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.23/share on revenue of $758.5 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23/share is based on a poll of 13 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 6.1% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.22/share.

The revenue forecast of $758.5 million based on a poll of 11 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 16.2%. Last year the company reported $652.5 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of 6.1% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $758.50 $652.54 16.2%
EPS $0.23 $0.22 6.1%

Earnings Call Trends

Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 5 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance.

What are your expectations from Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.23 $0.42 82.2% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.32 $0.36 12.2% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.17 $0.21 20.6% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.19 $0.22 17.5% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.13 $0.16 19.7% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 27, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −5.2%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 10, 2020 $45.02 $42.66 −5.2% Decline
May 11, 2020 $36.71 $37.49 2.1% Increase
March 24, 2020 $31.47 $33.45 6.3% Increase
November 11, 2019 $31.11 $32.60 4.8% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is currently trading at $44.32/share, down −2.5% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 90.7% of its 52-week high of $48.87/share. The company’s stock price is up 3.9% since the last earnings report and up 1.9% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 61.41 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:GO Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 63.18 and a forward P/E multiple of 34.41.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 4.87. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 8, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 27, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $44.32
P/E Ratio 63.2x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 34.4x
PEG Ratio 0.1
Total Debt / Total Capital 24.0%
Levered Free Cash Flow $75.813 million
EV / EBITDA 37.3x

Finbox

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $4.06 billion and a total enterprise value of $5.295 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Staples sector and the Food & Staples Retailing industry.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. owns and operates a chain of grocery stores in the United States. The company offers products in various categories, such as dairy and deli, produce, and fresh meat and seafood products, as well as grocery, frozen, beer and wine, general merchandise, and health and beauty care products; and natural, organic, specialty, and healthy products. As of December 28, 2019, it had 347 stores, including 342 independent operated stores in California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho, and Nevada. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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