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Upland Software Q3 Earnings: Can NasdaqGM:UPLD Hit Its $0.49 EPS Target?

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Upland Software, Inc. (NasdaqGM:UPLD) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.49/share on revenue of $69.957 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.49/share is based on a poll of 9 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −5.8% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.52/share.

The revenue forecast of $69.957 million based on a poll of 8 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 27.0%. Last year the company reported $55.065 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −5.8% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $69.96 $55.06 27.0%
EPS $0.49 $0.52 −5.8%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 1 quarter, and met expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Upland Software, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.44 $0.60 37.2% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.49 $0.72 45.9% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.59 $0.67 12.9% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.58 $0.52 −10.1% Missed
Q2, 2019 $0.51 $0.76 49.4% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.52 $0.53 2.2% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.49 $0.58 18.0% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.38 $0.38 0% Met

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 2.6%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 6, 2020 $39.70 $40.74 2.6% Increase
May 7, 2020 $29.81 $31.53 5.8% Increase
February 26, 2020 $40.19 $38.55 −4.1% Decline
November 7, 2019 $38.77 $35.01 −9.7% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.60, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.60 implies a 0.5% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Upland Software, Inc. is currently trading at $41.72/share, down −2.5% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 90.7% of its 52-week high of $45.99/share. The company’s stock price is up 2.4% since the last earnings report and down −5.5% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 51.14 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGM:UPLD Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −18.47 and a forward P/E multiple of 21.38.

Upland Software, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 8.06. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 1, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $41.72
P/E Ratio −18.5x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 21.4x
PEG Ratio 0.1
Total Debt / Total Capital 31.2%
Levered Free Cash Flow $804 thousand
EV / EBITDA 35.6x

Finbox

Upland Software, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $1.226 billion and a total enterprise value of $1.709 billion. The company operates in the Information Technology sector and the Software industry.

Upland Software, Inc. provides cloud-based enterprise work management software in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. The company offers a family of software applications under the Upland brand in the areas of information technology, digital marketing, ecommerce, customer service and support, project management, business operations, human resources and legal departments, and sales and marketing. Its software applications address enterprise work challenges in various categories comprising customer experience management that enables organizations to manage customer lifecycle, which include awareness, acquisition, and advocacy across multiple channels consisting of email, short and multimedia messaging services, web, social, and mobile apps; and enterprise sales enablement solutions to optimize sales activities, digital content production, automate key proposal and reference processes, and track key metrics. The company also provides professional services automation solution for proposal automation, customer reference management, voice of the customer, and insights-driven business intelligence; project and financial management solution that provide a centralized framework for demand management, resource optimization, project delivery, and financial oversight; enterprise knowledge management solution suite that enables knowledge sharing across different departments within an organization; secure document services; and document lifecycle automation solution, which enables enterprises to manage and automate document intensive business processes with data security. It sells its products through direct and indirect sales organization to financial services, retail, manufacturing, legal, consumer goods, media, and other industries. The company was formerly known as Silverback Enterprise Group, Inc. and changed its name to Upland Software, Inc. in November 2013. Upland Software, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

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