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Triumph Q2 Earnings: Can NYSE:TGI Hit Its -$0.29 EPS Target?

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Triumph Group, Inc. (NYSE:TGI) is scheduled to report Q2 earnings results on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.29/share on revenue of $466.2 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.29/share is based on a poll of 10 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −146.0% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.64/share.

The revenue forecast of $466.2 million based on a poll of 9 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −39.6%. Last year the company reported $772.1 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.29/share for Q2, 2021
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $466.17 $772.11 −39.6%
EPS -$0.29 $0.64 −146.0%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and met expectations 2 quarters.

What are your expectations from Triumph Group, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q1, 2021 -$0.22 -$0.19 12.7% Beat
Q4, 2020 $0.59 $0.69 16.1% Beat
Q3, 2020 $0.66 $0.69 4.2% Beat
Q2, 2020 $0.60 $0.64 6.6% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.44 $0.46 4.9% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.69 $1.15 67.0% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.42 $0.42 0% Met
Q2, 2019 $0.40 $0.40 0% Met

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 5.4%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 4, 2020 $6.85 $7.22 5.4% Increase
May 28, 2020 $8.18 $7.49 −8.4% Decline
February 6, 2020 $21.87 $23.03 5.3% Increase
November 7, 2019 $22.77 $27.70 21.7% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −3.54, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −3.54 implies a 0.0% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Triumph Group, Inc. is currently trading at $6.60/share, up 1.9% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 22.5% of its 52-week high of $29.38/share. The company’s stock price is down −8.6% since the last earnings report and down −15.3% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 37.66 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:TGI Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −1.06 and a forward P/E multiple of −12.90.

Triumph Group, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of −0.33. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 1, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2021.Q1
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $6.60
P/E Ratio −1.1x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −12.9x
PEG Ratio 0.0
Total Debt / Total Capital 82.9%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$145.4 million
EV / EBITDA 7.9x

Finbox

Triumph Group, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $343.7 million and a total enterprise value of $1.948 billion. The company operates in the Industrials sector and the Aerospace & Defense industry.

Triumph Group, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, repairs, overhauls, and distributes aerostructures, aircraft components, accessories, subassemblies, and systems worldwide. It operates through in segments, Systems & Support and Aerospace Structures. The company offers aircraft and engine-mounted accessory drives, thermal control systems and components, cargo hooks, high lift actuations, cockpit control levers, hydraulic systems and components, control system valve bodies, landing gear actuation systems, electronic engine controls, landing gear components and assemblies, exhaust nozzles and ducting, main engine gearbox assemblies, geared transmissions and drive train components, main fuel pumps, fuel-metering units, secondary flight control systems, and vibration absorbers. It also provides aircraft wings, flight control surfaces, composite and metal bonding products, flight control surfaces, engine nacelles, integrated testing and certification services, comprehensive processing services, stretch-formed leading edges and fuselage skins, empennages, wing spars and stringers, acoustic and thermal insulation systems, and composite ducts and floor panels. In addition, the company offers air cycle machines, blades and vanes, APUs, constant speed drives, combustors, engine and airframe accessories, stators, flight control surfaces, transition ducts, integrated drive generators, sidewalls, nacelles, light assemblies, remote sensors, overhead bins, thrust reversers, and fuel bladder cells, as well as cabin panes, shades, light lenses, and other components. It serves original equipment manufacturers of commercial, regional, and military aircraft; and aircraft components, as well as business jet and regional airlines, and air cargo carriers. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

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