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Q3 Earnings Preview for Supernus Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGM:SUPN)

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Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NasdaqGM:SUPN) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on November 3, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.27/share on revenue of $130.8 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.27/share is based on a poll of 3 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −49.4% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.54/share.

The revenue forecast of $130.8 million based on a poll of 4 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 28.0%. Last year the company reported $102.1 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −49.4% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $130.76 $102.14 28.0%
EPS $0.27 $0.54 −49.4%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 2 quarters.

What are your expectations from Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.42 $0.65 54.8% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.26 $0.40 53.8% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.59 $0.62 5.8% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.59 $0.54 −8.5% Missed
Q2, 2019 $0.60 $0.61 1.2% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.47 $0.34 −26.9% Missed
Q4, 2018 $0.29 $0.48 67.2% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.42 $0.52 22.9% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 3.7%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 17, 2020 $24.15 $25.05 3.7% Increase
May 5, 2020 $22.14 $23.17 4.7% Increase
February 25, 2020 $23.95 $19.52 −18.5% Decline
November 5, 2019 $28.44 $19.93 −29.9% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.27, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.27 implies a 1.2% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is currently trading at $18.36/share, up 0.1% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 62.5% of its 52-week high of $29.36/share. The company’s stock price is down −26.7% since the last earnings report and down −8.6% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 29.95 suggests the company is trading in technically oversold territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGM:SUPN Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 8.18 and a forward P/E multiple of 12.29.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.45. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 1, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $18.36
P/E Ratio 8.2x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 12.3x
PEG Ratio 0.6
Total Debt / Total Capital 29.8%
Levered Free Cash Flow $176.8 million
EV / EBITDA 1.6x

Finbox

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $966.9 million and a total enterprise value of $643 million. The company operates in the Healthcare sector and the Pharmaceuticals industry.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system diseases in neurology and psychiatry in the United States. The company offers Oxtellar XR, an extended release oxcarbazepine for the monotherapy treatment of partial onset epilepsy seizures in adults and in children 6 to 17 years of age; and Trokendi XR, an extended release topiramate, which is used for the prophylaxis of migraine headache, as well as for the treatment of epilepsy. Its product candidates comprise SPN-812, a viloxazine hydrochloride, which has completed phase III clinical trial that is used for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); SPN-809, a viloxazine hydrochloride, which is in phase II ready clinical trial for the treatment of depression; SPN-604 extended release oxcarbazepine, which is in phase III clinical trial for the treatment of bipolar disorder; and SPN-817 that is in phase I clinical trial to treat severe pediatric epilepsy disorders. The company markets its products through pharmaceutical wholesalers and distributors. It has a development and option agreement with Navitor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to conduct a phase II clinical program for NV-5138 in treatment-resistant depression. Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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