Q3 Earnings Preview for Personalis (NasdaqGM:PSNL)

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Personalis, Inc. (NasdaqGM:PSNL) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.28/share on revenue of $19.057 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.28/share is based on a poll of 8 analysts and represents a decline in eps of -66.5% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of -$0.17/share.

The revenue forecast of $19.057 million based on a poll of 6 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 11.1%. Last year the company reported $17.153 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.28/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $19.06 $17.15 11.1%
EPS -$0.28 -$0.17 -66.5%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 4 out of the last 5 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarters.

What are your expectations from Personalis, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$0.34 -$0.29 14.7% Beat
Q1, 2020 -$0.26 -$0.29 -10.1% Missed
Q4, 2019 -$0.25 -$0.04 84.0% Beat
Q3, 2019 -$0.25 -$0.17 32.8% Beat
Q2, 2019 -$0.26 -$0.19 27.5% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −2.4%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 6, 2020 $22.02 $21.49 −2.4% Decline
May 7, 2020 $10.46 $10.94 4.6% Increase
March 25, 2020 $6.51 $7.65 17.5% Increase
November 13, 2019 $10.18 $10.20 0.2% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −1.89, the model suggests that the company is a possible earnings manipulator. A value of −1.89 implies a 2.9% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Personalis, Inc. is currently trading at $24.73/share, down −5.7% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 79.9% of its 52-week high of $30.95/share. The company’s stock price is up 15.1% since the last earnings report and down −5.9% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 45.37 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGM:PSNL Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −29.79 and a forward P/E multiple of −25.92.

Personalis, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 10.21. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 1, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $24.73
P/E Ratio −29.8x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −25.9x
PEG Ratio −0.4
Total Debt / Total Capital 1.1%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$37.666 million
EV / EBITDA −32.1x

Finbox

Personalis, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $950.9 million and a total enterprise value of $857 million. The company operates in the Healthcare sector and the Life Sciences Tools & Services industry.

Personalis, Inc. operates as a cancer genomics company worldwide. The company provides sequencing and data analysis services to support the development of cancer therapies. It offers NeXT Platform, which provides data for cancer therapy development, personalized therapies, therapy selection, and diagnostics. The company also provides a complementary liquid biopsy assay that analyzes various human genes versus. It serves biopharmaceutical customers, universities and non-profits, diagnostics companies, and government entities. Personalis, Inc. has partnership with Berry Genomics. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.

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