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Q3 Earnings Preview for Acceleron Pharma (NasdaqGM:XLRN)

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Acceleron Pharma Inc. (NasdaqGM:XLRN) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.56/share on revenue of $26.518 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.56/share is based on a poll of 10 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 34.6% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of -$0.86/share.

The revenue forecast of $26.518 million based on a poll of 9 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 530.2%. Last year the company reported $4.208 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.56/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $26.52 $4.21 530.2%
EPS -$0.56 -$0.86 34.6%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 3 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 5 quarters.

What are your expectations from Acceleron Pharma Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$0.58 -$0.34 41.4% Beat
Q1, 2020 -$0.88 -$0.95 -8.1% Missed
Q4, 2019 -$0.30 -$0.44 -44.8% Missed
Q3, 2019 -$0.83 -$0.86 -3.4% Missed
Q2, 2019 -$0.40 -$0.34 15.4% Beat
Q1, 2019 -$0.57 -$0.74 -29.4% Missed
Q4, 2018 -$0.68 -$0.75 -10.9% Missed
Q3, 2018 -$0.66 -$0.63 4.1% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −7.0%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 6, 2020 $106.55 $99.12 −7.0% Decline
May 11, 2020 $101.79 $100.70 −1.1% Decline
February 27, 2020 $87.36 $85.93 −1.6% Decline
November 6, 2019 $47.62 $40.61 −14.7% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of 1.14, the model suggests that the company is likely an earnings manipulator. A value of 1.14 implies a 12.8% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Acceleron Pharma Inc. is currently trading at $104.58/share, down −2.2% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 84.3% of its 52-week high of $124.01/share. The company’s stock price is up 5.5% since the last earnings report and down −4.4% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 40.90 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGM:XLRN Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −45.28 and a forward P/E multiple of −47.91.

Acceleron Pharma Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 14.86. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 1, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $104.58
P/E Ratio −45.3x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −47.9x
PEG Ratio 7.3
Total Debt / Total Capital 0.4%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$147.1 million
EV / EBITDA −41.8x

Finbox

Acceleron Pharma Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $6.264 billion and a total enterprise value of $5.898 billion. The company operates in the Healthcare sector and the Biotechnology industry.

Acceleron Pharma Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics to treat serious and rare diseases. It offers luspatercept-aamt for the treatment of anemia in adult patients with beta-thalassemia under the REBLOZYL name. The company also develops luspatercept-aamt for the treatment of myelodysplastic syndromes and myelofibrosis; Sotatercept for the treatment of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension; and ACE-083, a neuromuscular candidate that is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of patients with Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease. In addition, it has a collaboration, license, and option agreement with Celgene Corporation; and collaboration and license agreement with Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. to identify small molecules designed to modulate specific pathways associated with a targeted indication within the pulmonary disease space. The company was formerly known as Phoenix Pharma, Inc. Acceleron Pharma Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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