PGT Innovations Q3 Earnings: Can NYSE:PGTI Hit Its $0.31 EPS Target?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

PGT Innovations, Inc. (NYSE:PGTI) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.31/share on revenue of $231.6 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.31/share is based on a poll of 5 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 19.7% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.26/share.

The revenue forecast of $231.6 million based on a poll of 5 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 17.1%. Last year the company reported $197.8 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of 19.7% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $231.58 $197.82 17.1%
EPS $0.31 $0.26 19.7%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 1 quarter, and met expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from PGT Innovations, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.16 $0.21 29.6% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.13 $0.28 124.0% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.09 $0.10 10.0% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.28 $0.26 −7.7% Missed
Q2, 2019 $0.32 $0.32 0% Met
Q1, 2019 $0.14 $0.16 13.2% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.20 $0.21 4.2% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.26 $0.38 44.4% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending July 4, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 1.2%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 12, 2020 $18.91 $19.14 1.2% Increase
May 13, 2020 $9.77 $11 12.6% Increase
February 25, 2020 $17.19 $16.01 −6.9% Decline
November 7, 2019 $17.71 $15.36 −13.3% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.49, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.49 implies a 0.6% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

PGT Innovations, Inc. is currently trading at $16.58/share, down −0.1% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 82.5% of its 52-week high of $20.10/share. The company’s stock price is down −13.4% since the last earnings report and down −6.7% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 37.09 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:PGTI Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 27.02 and a forward P/E multiple of 16.95.

PGT Innovations, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.17. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 1, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date July 4, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $16.58
P/E Ratio 27.0x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 17.0x
PEG Ratio −0.9
Total Debt / Total Capital 32.1%
Levered Free Cash Flow $57.524 million
EV / EBITDA 10.8x

Finbox

PGT Innovations, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $977.6 million and a total enterprise value of $1.341 billion. The company operates in the Industrials sector and the Building Products industry.

PGT Innovations, Inc. manufactures and supplies impact-resistant residential windows and doors in the Southeastern United States, Western United States, the Gulf Coast, Coastal mid-Atlantic, the Caribbean, Central America, and Canada. It offers heavy-duty aluminum or vinyl frames with laminated glass to provide protection from hurricane-force winds and wind-borne debris; and non-impact vinyl windows with insulating glass and multi-chambered frames for various climate zones. The company also provides customizable non-impact-resistant aluminum frame windows and doors; and non-glass vertical and horizontal sliding panels for porch enclosures, including vinyl-glazed aluminum-framed products used for enclosing screened-in porches that provide protection from inclement weather, as well as cabana doors. In addition, it offers premium aluminum impact-resistant products; aluminum impact-resistant windows and doors; vinyl energy-efficient impact-resistant windows; and commercial storefront window system and entry doors. Further, it provides high-end luxury aluminum doors and windows, such as impact and non-impact sliding glass doors and terrace doors, fixed picture windows, single hung windows, and horizontal rolling windows; aluminum thermally broken doors and windows; fixed and operating windows, as well as well as sliding, folding, and hinged doors; and moving glass walls and windows. The company offers its products under the PGT, CGI, and WinDoor brands, as well as WinGuard, WinGuard Vinyl, EnergyVue, Eze-Breeze, Estate Collection, Sentinel, Estate Entrances, Commercial Series, and Targa names. It serves residential new construction, and home repair and remodeling end markets through window and building supply distributors, window replacement dealers, and enclosure contractors. The company was formerly known as PGT, Inc. and changed its name to PGT Innovations, Inc. in December 2016. PGT Innovations, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in North Venice, Florida.

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