Murphy Oil Q3 Earnings: Can NYSE:MUR Hit Its -$0.18 EPS Target?


Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results before markets open for trading on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.18/share on revenue of $474 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.18/share is based on a poll of 17 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −149.3% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.36/share.

The revenue forecast of $474 million based on a poll of 12 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −42.0%. Last year the company reported $817.1 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.18/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $474.04 $817.08 −42.0%
EPS -$0.18 $0.36 −149.3%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 5 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 1 quarter, and met expectations 2 quarters.

What are your expectations from Murphy Oil Corporation for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$0.93 -$0.71 23.5% Beat
Q1, 2020 -$0.44 -$0.30 32.0% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.17 $0.16 −5.7% Missed
Q3, 2019 $0.20 $0.36 81.7% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.18 $0.21 17.2% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.15 $0.15 0% Met
Q4, 2018 $0.25 $0.31 24.3% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.35 $0.35 0% Met

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price did not react much to the update.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 6, 2020 $14.62 $14.48 −1.0% Decline
May 6, 2020 $10.46 $10.60 1.3% Increase
January 30, 2020 $22.55 $20.96 −7.1% Decline
October 31, 2019 $19.51 $22.01 12.8% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −3.03, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −3.03 implies a 0.1% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Murphy Oil Corporation is currently trading at $7.72/share, down −1.0% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 27.5% of its 52-week high of $28.12/share. The company’s stock price is down −46.7% since the last earnings report and down −11.5% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 37.32 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NYSE:MUR Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −1.69 and a forward P/E multiple of −6.37.

Murphy Oil Corporation’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 0.26. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 1, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $7.72
P/E Ratio −1.7x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −6.4x
PEG Ratio 0.4
Total Debt / Total Capital 72.8%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$71.339 million
EV / EBITDA 3.4x


Murphy Oil Corporation is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $1.186 billion and a total enterprise value of $5.003 billion. The company operates in the Energy sector and the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry.

Murphy Oil Corporation operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company was formerly known as Murphy Corporation and changed its name to Murphy Oil Corporation in 1964. Murphy Oil Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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