International Seaways Q3 Earnings: Time To Buy Struggling NYSE:INSW Stock?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

International Seaways, Inc. (NYSE:INSW) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results before markets open for trading on November 6, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.58/share on revenue of $82.795 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.58/share is based on a poll of 5 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 241.0% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of -$0.41/share.

The revenue forecast of $82.795 million based on a poll of 3 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 25.8%. Last year the company reported $65.808 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of $0.58/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $82.79 $65.81 25.8%
EPS $0.58 -$0.41 241.0%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 4 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 4 quarters.

What are your expectations from International Seaways, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $2.32 $2.39 2.8% Beat
Q1, 2020 $1.55 $1.04 −33.2% Missed
Q4, 2019 $1.26 $1.32 4.8% Beat
Q3, 2019 -$0.38 -$0.41 -6.8% Missed
Q2, 2019 -$0.53 -$0.51 4.0% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.38 $0.37 −1.4% Missed
Q4, 2018 $0.13 $0.32 140.4% Beat
Q3, 2018 -$0.72 -$1.04 -44.7% Missed

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price did not react much to the update.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 7, 2020 $17.26 $17.39 0.8% Increase
May 7, 2020 $20.79 $21.82 5.0% Increase
March 3, 2020 $20.93 $19.69 −5.9% Decline
November 7, 2019 $24.09 $24.35 1.1% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.65, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.65 implies a 0.4% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

International Seaways, Inc. is currently trading at $13.54/share, up 0.1% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 43.1% of its 52-week high of $31.39/share. The company’s stock price is down −22.1% since the last earnings report and down −4.2% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 35.64 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:INSW Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 3.71 and a forward P/E multiple of 2.74.

International Seaways, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 0.35. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 1, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $13.54
P/E Ratio 3.7x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 2.7x
PEG Ratio 0.0
Total Debt / Total Capital 63.4%
Levered Free Cash Flow $98.577 million
EV / EBITDA 3.4x

Finbox

International Seaways, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $378.9 million and a total enterprise value of $907.1 million. The company operates in the Energy sector and the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry.

International Seaways, Inc. owns and operates a fleet of oceangoing vessels for the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products in the International Flag trade. It operates through two segments, Crude Tankers and Product Carriers. As of March 3, 2020, the company owned and operated a fleet of 42 vessels, including 13 very large crude carriers, 2 Suezmaxes, 5 Aframaxes/LR2s, 13 Panamaxes/LR1s, and 7 medium range tankers, as well as had ownership interests in two floating storage and offloading service vessels. It serves independent and state-owned oil companies, oil traders, refinery operators, and international government entities. The company was formerly known as OSG International, Inc. and changed its name to International Seaways, Inc. in October 2016. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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