BMC (NasdaqGS:BMCH) Q3 Earnings: What Can You Expect?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

BMC Stock Holdings, Inc. (NasdaqGS:BMCH) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on November 3, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.60/share on revenue of $1.082 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.60/share is based on a poll of 11 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 3.4% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.58/share.

The revenue forecast of $1.082 billion based on a poll of 9 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 12.2%. Last year the company reported $964.2 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of 3.4% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $1,081.57 $964.25 12.2%
EPS $0.60 $0.58 3.4%

Earnings Call Trends

Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 8 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance.

What are your expectations from BMC Stock Holdings, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.38 $0.73 93.0% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.29 $0.40 37.5% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.34 $0.37 8.6% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.53 $0.58 10.3% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.53 $0.59 11.9% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.26 $0.37 42.2% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.29 $0.48 63.3% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.49 $0.58 18.6% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 18.4%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 3, 2020 $25.60 $30.32 18.4% Increase
May 5, 2020 $20.80 $21.25 2.2% Increase
February 27, 2020 $27.93 $24.53 −12.2% Decline
November 5, 2019 $28.22 $28.26 0.1% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.79, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.79 implies a 0.3% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

BMC Stock Holdings, Inc. is currently trading at $39.59/share, up 1.4% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 87.5% of its 52-week high of $45.23/share. The company’s stock price is up 30.6% since the last earnings report and down −7.4% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 39.28 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:BMCH Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 22.23 and a forward P/E multiple of 18.00.

BMC Stock Holdings, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.53. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 1, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $39.59
P/E Ratio 22.2x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 18.0x
PEG Ratio −38.3
Total Debt / Total Capital 16.1%
Levered Free Cash Flow $177.1 million
EV / EBITDA 11.3x

Finbox

BMC Stock Holdings, Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $2.656 billion and a total enterprise value of $2.904 billion. The company operates in the Industrials sector and the Trading Companies & Distributors industry.

BMC Stock Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various building products and services for homebuilder and professional contractor customers in the United States. It offers structural components, including floor trusses, roof trusses, wall panels, and engineered wood products; lumber and lumber sheet goods, such as dimensional lumber, and plywood and oriented strand board products used in on-site house framing; and millwork, doors, and windows comprising interior and exterior doors, windows, interior trims, custom millworks, moldings, stairs and stair parts, cabinetry, and other products. The company also provides other building products and services that consist of hardware, wood boards, gypsum, insulation, roofing, siding, and flooring; and design assistance and professional installation services, as well as professional estimating, product advisory, and product display services. It primarily serves large-scale production homebuilders, custom homebuilders, multi-family builders, and professional repair and remodeling contractors. The company provides its products through its distribution locations and eCommerce platform. BMC Stock Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina.

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