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Q3 Earnings Preview for Sage Therapeutics (NasdaqGM:SAGE)

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Sage Therapeutics, Inc. (NasdaqGM:SAGE) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$2.47/share on revenue of $1.845 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$2.47/share is based on a poll of 10 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 29.0% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of -$3.48/share.

The revenue forecast of $1.845 million based on a poll of 18 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −48.3%. Last year the company reported $3.57 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$2.47/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $1.85 $3.57 −48.3%
EPS -$2.47 -$3.48 29.0%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 4 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 4 quarters.

What are your expectations from Sage Therapeutics, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$2.59 -$2.08 19.7% Beat
Q1, 2020 -$3.17 -$2.44 23.0% Beat
Q4, 2019 -$3.63 -$3.25 10.5% Beat
Q3, 2019 -$3.38 -$3.48 -3.0% Missed
Q2, 2019 -$3.35 -$3.28 2.0% Beat
Q1, 2019 -$3.19 -$3.37 -5.7% Missed
Q4, 2018 -$2.92 -$3.38 -15.9% Missed
Q3, 2018 -$2.40 -$2.63 -9.4% Missed

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 1.3%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 10, 2020 $50.70 $51.37 1.3% Increase
May 7, 2020 $40.87 $39.20 −4.1% Decline
February 27, 2020 $63.65 $47 −26.2% Decline
November 12, 2019 $144.34 $144.05 −0.2% Decline

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Sage Therapeutics, Inc. is currently trading at $71.85/share, up 1.5% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 46.8% of its 52-week high of $155.33/share. The company’s stock price is up 39.9% since the last earnings report and up 6.8% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 62.15 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGM:SAGE Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −6.11 and a forward P/E multiple of −7.23.

Sage Therapeutics, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 5.05. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 28, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $71.85
P/E Ratio −6.1x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −7.2x
PEG Ratio −0.9
Total Debt / Total Capital 0.8%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$503.8 million
EV / EBITDA −5.0x

Finbox

Sage Therapeutics, Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $3.68 billion and a total enterprise value of $2.954 billion. The company operates in the Healthcare sector and the Biotechnology industry.

Sage Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes novel medicines to treat central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Its lead product candidate is ZULRESSO, a proprietary intravenous formulation of brexanolone for the treatment of postpartum depression (PPD). The company’s product pipeline also includes SAGE-217, a novel neuroactive steroid, which is in Phase III clinical trials for treating PPD, major depressive disorders, bipolar depression, and generalized anxiety disorders; and SAGE-324, a novel compound that is in Phase II clinical trial to treat essential tremors, as well as has completed Phase I clinical trial for epileptiform disorders and Parkinson’s diseases. In addition, its product pipeline comprises SAGE-718, an oxysterol-based positive allosteric modulator of the NMDA receptor, which has completed Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of depression, Huntington’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, and neuropathic pain. Further, the company is developing SAGE-904, an oral therapy that is in Phase I clinical trial for disorders associated with NMDA hypofunction; and SAGE-689 for intramuscular administration. Sage Therapeutics, Inc. has a strategic collaboration with Shionogi & Co., Ltd. for the development and commercialization of SAGE-217 in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. The company was formerly known as Sterogen Biopharma, Inc. and changed its name to Sage Therapeutics, Inc. in September 2011. Sage Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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