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Q3 Earnings Preview for (NasdaqGS:ALRM)

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by Holdings, Inc. (NasdaqGS:ALRM) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.31/share on revenue of $129.5 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.31/share is based on a poll of 9 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −15.0% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.37/share.

The revenue forecast of $129.5 million based on a poll of 9 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 1.3%. Last year the company reported $127.9 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −15.0% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $129.51 $127.88 1.3%
EPS $0.31 $0.37 −15.0%

Earnings Call Trends

Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 8 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance.

What are your expectations from Holdings, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.30 $0.41 38.1% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.34 $0.42 22.4% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.33 $0.43 31.5% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.32 $0.37 15.3% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.32 $0.40 23.9% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.31 $0.34 8.2% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.24 $0.29 18.8% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.25 $0.36 41.6% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price did not react much to the update.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 5, 2020 $60.32 $60.19 −0.2% Decline
May 7, 2020 $44.61 $50.05 12.2% Increase
February 25, 2020 $46.22 $48.03 3.9% Increase
November 5, 2019 $51.08 $46.27 −9.4% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.33, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.33 implies a 1.0% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis Holdings, Inc. is currently trading at $57.80/share, down −3.7% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 77.5% of its 52-week high of $74.66/share. The company’s stock price is down −4.0% since the last earnings report and down −3.7% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 53.66 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NasdaqGS:ALRM Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 49.94 and a forward P/E multiple of 39.30. Holdings, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 7.18. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 28, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $57.80
P/E Ratio 49.9x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 39.3x
PEG Ratio 0.4
Total Debt / Total Capital 5.1%
Levered Free Cash Flow $51.561 million
EV / EBITDA 32.0x

Finbox Holdings, Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $2.94 billion and a total enterprise value of $2.904 billion. The company operates in the Information Technology sector and the Software industry. Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based software platform solutions for smart residential and commercial properties in the United States and internationally. The company provides interactive security solutions to control and monitor their security systems, as well as connected security devices, including door locks, motion sensors, thermostats, garage doors, and video cameras; and high definition video monitoring solutions, such as live streaming, smart clip capture, video analytics, secure cloud storage, video alerts, continuous high definition recording, and commercial video surveillance solutions. It also offers intelligent automation and energy management solutions, including scenes button, which adjust multiple devices; smart thermostat schedules; responsive savings; precision comfort; energy usage and environmental monitoring; geo-services; demand response programs; and whole home water safety solutions, as well as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning monitoring services. In addition, the company provides commercial solutions, such as daily safeguards, commercial grade video, energy savings, protection for valuables and inventory, multi-site management access control, operational insights, early problem identification, simple to use, professionally supported, and easy to maintain. Further, it offers service provider solutions, including a permission-based online portal that offers account management, sales, marketing, training, and support tools; installation and support tools; business management services; home builder programs; and sales, marketing, and training services, as well as wellness solutions. The company serves residential and commercial subscribers. Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tysons, Virginia.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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