Pioneer Natural Resources Q3 Earnings: Can NYSE:PXD Hit Its $0.33 EPS Target?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE:PXD) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on October 28, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.33/share on revenue of $1.553 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33/share is based on a poll of 24 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −83.6% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $1.99/share.

The revenue forecast of $1.553 billion based on a poll of 4 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −33.2%. Last year the company reported $2.325 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −83.6% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $1,553.10 $2,325.00 −33.2%
EPS $0.33 $1.99 −83.6%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 7 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Pioneer Natural Resources Company for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$0.35 -$0.32 −7.3% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.94 $1.15 21.7% Beat
Q4, 2019 $2.10 $2.36 12.6% Beat
Q3, 2019 $1.97 $1.99 1.0% Beat
Q2, 2019 $1.86 $2.01 7.9% Beat
Q1, 2019 $1.65 $1.83 11.0% Beat
Q4, 2018 $1.34 $1.18 −11.7% Missed
Q3, 2018 $1.68 $2.07 22.9% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 4.9%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 4, 2020 $97.84 $102.65 4.9% Increase
May 6, 2020 $82.48 $87.02 5.5% Increase
February 19, 2020 $135.56 $142.53 5.1% Increase
November 4, 2019 $127.56 $135.86 6.5% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −3.27, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −3.27 implies a 0.1% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is currently trading at $81.68/share, down −2.5% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 51.3% of its 52-week high of $159.01/share. The company’s stock price is down −20.4% since the last earnings report and up 4.1% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 42.70 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:PXD Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 31.75 and a forward P/E multiple of 46.46.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.14. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 28, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $81.68
P/E Ratio 31.8x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 46.5x
PEG Ratio −0.6
Total Debt / Total Capital 15.0%
Levered Free Cash Flow $364 million
EV / EBITDA 5.6x

Finbox

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $13.778 billion and a total enterprise value of $15.94 billion. The company operates in the Energy sector and the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company operates as an independent oil and gas exploration and production company in the United States. The company explores for, develops, and produces oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and gas. It has operations primarily in the Permian Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2019, the company had proved undeveloped reserves and proved developed non-producing reserves of 39 million barrels of oil, 16 million barrels of NGLs, and 83 billion cubic feet of gas; and owned interests in 11 gas processing plants. Pioneer Natural Resources Company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.