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FLEETCOR Technologies Q3 Earnings: Can NYSE:FLT Hit Its $2.65 EPS Target?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:FLT) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $2.65/share on revenue of $580.6 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65/share is based on a poll of 21 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −14.5% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $3.10/share.

The revenue forecast of $580.6 million based on a poll of 16 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −14.7%. Last year the company reported $681 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −14.5% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $580.65 $681.05 −14.7%
EPS $2.65 $3.10 −14.5%

Earnings Call Trends

Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 8 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance.

What are your expectations from FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $2.17 $2.28 4.8% Beat
Q1, 2020 $2.81 $3 6.7% Beat
Q4, 2019 $3.14 $3.17 1.1% Beat
Q3, 2019 $3.05 $3.10 1.6% Beat
Q2, 2019 $2.80 $2.85 1.6% Beat
Q1, 2019 $2.64 $2.67 1.2% Beat
Q4, 2018 $2.72 $2.78 2.2% Beat
Q3, 2018 $2.66 $2.68 0.6% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −9.3%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 6, 2020 $265.29 $240.61 −9.3% Decline
May 7, 2020 $240.57 $240 −0.2% Decline
February 6, 2020 $326.87 $306.76 −6.2% Decline
November 6, 2019 $291.73 $296.58 1.7% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.96, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.96 implies a 0.2% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. is currently trading at $223.91/share, down −3.4% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 67.9% of its 52-week high of $329.85/share. The company’s stock price is down −6.9% since the last earnings report and down −9.8% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 41.11 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:FLT Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.53 and a forward P/E multiple of 21.42.

FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 6.34. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 28, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $223.91
P/E Ratio 24.5x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 21.4x
PEG Ratio −2.0
Total Debt / Total Capital 18.6%
Levered Free Cash Flow $1.334 billion
EV / EBITDA 16.7x

Finbox

FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $19.474 billion and a total enterprise value of $23.156 billion. The company operates in the Information Technology sector and the IT Services industry.

FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. operates as a business payments company that simplifies the way businesses manage and pay expenses. The company’s portfolio of brands help companies automate, secure, digitize, and control payments on behalf of employees and suppliers. It offers payment solutions in five primary categories, including fuel, lodging, tolls, corporate payments, and gift. The company provides fuel payment solutions to businesses and government entities that operate vehicle fleets, as well as to oil and leasing companies, and fuel marketers. Its fuel payment products are in the form of plastic cards, electronic RFID tags, mobile apps, and paper vouchers to purchase fuel, oil, vehicle maintenance supplies and services, and building supplies. The company offers lodging payment solutions to businesses that have employees who travel overnight for work purposes; to airlines to accommodate traveling crews and distressed passengers whose flights have been canceled; and electronic toll and parking payments products to businesses and consumers in the form of RFID tags affixed to vehicles’ windshields, as well as prepaid paper vouchers. Its corporate payments solutions enable customers to manage and control electronic payments across enterprise, optimize corporate spending, and offer innovative services. The company’s gift card product management and processing services comprise card design, production and packaging, delivery and fulfillment, card and account management, transaction processing, promotion development and management, website design and hosting, program analytics, and card distribution channel management. It also provides other payment products for vehicle maintenance, employee benefit payment, and long haul transportation-related services. The company serves businesses, partners, merchants, and payment network in North America, Latin America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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