AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC) Q4 2020 Earnings Prep

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

AmerisourceBergen Corporation (NYSE:ABC) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results before markets open for trading on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $1.88/share on revenue of $48.137 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $1.88/share is based on a poll of 14 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 16.9% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $1.61/share.

The revenue forecast of $48.137 billion based on a poll of 14 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 5.5%. Last year the company reported $45.638 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of 16.9% for Q4, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $48,136.62 $45,637.80 5.5%
EPS $1.88 $1.61 16.9%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 7 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from AmerisourceBergen Corporation for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2020 $1.59 $1.85 16.2% Beat
Q2, 2020 $2.27 $2.40 5.9% Beat
Q1, 2020 $1.67 $1.76 5.3% Beat
Q4, 2019 $1.58 $1.61 1.8% Beat
Q3, 2019 $1.62 $1.76 8.6% Beat
Q2, 2019 $1.96 $2.11 7.8% Beat
Q1, 2019 $1.51 $1.60 5.7% Beat
Q4, 2018 $1.46 $1.45 −0.4% Missed

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −3.0%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 5, 2020 $104.70 $101.61 −3.0% Decline
May 7, 2020 $85.50 $88.09 3.0% Increase
January 30, 2020 $89.86 $85.56 −4.8% Decline
November 7, 2019 $84.71 $86.07 1.6% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.44, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.44 implies a 0.7% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

AmerisourceBergen Corporation is currently trading at $96.99/share, down −0.7% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 91.1% of its 52-week high of $106.45/share. The company’s stock price is down −4.5% since the last earnings report and down −0.8% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 52.76 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:ABC Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12.54 and a forward P/E multiple of 12.36.

AmerisourceBergen Corporation’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 5.10. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 28, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q3
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $96.99
P/E Ratio 12.5x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 12.4x
PEG Ratio 0.2
Total Debt / Total Capital 18.9%
Levered Free Cash Flow $1.25 billion
EV / EBITDA 9.3x

Finbox

AmerisourceBergen Corporation is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $19.934 billion and a total enterprise value of $21.287 billion. The company operates in the Healthcare sector and the Healthcare Providers & Services industry.

AmerisourceBergen Corporation sources and distributes pharmaceutical products in the United States and internationally. Its Pharmaceutical Distribution segment distributes brand-name and generic pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter healthcare products, home healthcare supplies and equipment, outsourced compounded sterile preparations, and related services to various healthcare providers, including acute care hospitals and health systems, independent and chain retail pharmacies, mail order pharmacies, medical clinics, long-term care and other alternate site pharmacies, and other customers. It also provides pharmacy management, staffing, and other consulting services; supply management software to retail and institutional healthcare providers; and packaging solutions to various institutional and retail healthcare providers. In addition, this segment distributes plasma and other blood products, injectable pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and other specialty products; provides other services primarily to physicians who specialize in various disease states, primarily oncology, as well as to other healthcare providers, including hospitals and dialysis clinics; and offers data analytics, outcomes research, and additional services for biotechnology and pharmaceutical manufacturers. The company’s Other segment provides integrated manufacturer services, such as clinical trial support, product post-approval, and commercialization support; offers specialty transportation and logistics services for the biopharmaceutical industry; and sells pharmaceuticals, vaccines, parasiticides, diagnostics, micro feed ingredients, and various other products to customers in both the companion animal and production animal markets, as well as provides demand-creating sales force services to manufacturers. AmerisourceBergen Corporation was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania.

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