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Q3 Earnings Preview for Papa John’s International (NasdaqGS:PZZA)


Papa John’s International, Inc. (NasdaqGS:PZZA) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results before markets open for trading on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.36/share on revenue of $468.4 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36/share is based on a poll of 14 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 70.2% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.21/share.

The revenue forecast of $468.4 million based on a poll of 15 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 16.0%. Last year the company reported $403.7 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of 70.2% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $468.39 $403.71 16.0%
EPS $0.36 $0.21 70.2%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 2 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 5 quarters, and met expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Papa John’s International, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.49 $0.48 −1.9% Missed
Q1, 2020 $0.35 $0.15 −57.2% Missed
Q4, 2019 $0.32 $0.37 16.5% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.22 $0.21 −6.5% Missed
Q2, 2019 $0.30 $0.28 −5.4% Missed
Q1, 2019 $0.24 $0.31 29.8% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.15 $0.15 0% Met
Q3, 2018 $0.21 $0.20 −6.7% Missed

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 28, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −1.0%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 6, 2020 $99.14 $98.11 −1.0% Decline
May 6, 2020 $76.16 $80.81 6.1% Increase
February 26, 2020 $67.35 $58.18 −13.6% Decline
November 6, 2019 $57.19 $62.58 9.4% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −3.20, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −3.20 implies a 0.1% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Papa John’s International, Inc. is currently trading at $79.84/share, up 1.6% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 79.0% of its 52-week high of $102.25/share. The company’s stock price is down −18.6% since the last earnings report and up 2.9% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 38.84 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NasdaqGS:PZZA Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 214.17 and a forward P/E multiple of 52.66.

Papa John’s International, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of −8.52. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 28, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 28, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $79.84
P/E Ratio 214.2x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 52.7x
PEG Ratio 1.4
Total Debt / Total Capital 14.9%
Levered Free Cash Flow $83.562 million
EV / EBITDA 26.5x


Papa John’s International, Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $2.578 billion and a total enterprise value of $3.275 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry.

Papa John’s International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa John’s trademark in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Commissaries, North America Franchising, and International Operations. The company also operates dine-in and delivery restaurants. As of December 29, 2019, it operated 5,395 Papa John’s restaurants, which included 598 company-owned and 4,797 franchised restaurants. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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