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Performance Food (NYSE:PFGC) Q1 Earnings: What Can You Expect?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Performance Food Group Company (NYSE:PFGC) is scheduled to report Q1 earnings results on November 4, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.16/share on revenue of $6.996 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16/share is based on a poll of 8 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −67.8% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.50/share.

The revenue forecast of $6.996 billion based on a poll of 6 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 12.1%. Last year the company reported $6.243 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −67.8% for Q1, 2021
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $6,995.84 $6,243.00 12.1%
EPS $0.16 $0.50 −67.8%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 2 quarters.

What are your expectations from Performance Food Group Company for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q4, 2020 -$0.24 -$0.86 -258.3% Missed
Q3, 2020 $0.12 $0.58 383.3% Beat
Q2, 2020 $0.44 $0.58 31.2% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.36 $0.50 39.6% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.65 $0.70 8.5% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.36 $0.35 −2.9% Missed
Q2, 2019 $0.40 $0.46 14.7% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.28 $0.34 21.0% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 27, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −1.6%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 12, 2020 $34.71 $34.14 −1.6% Decline
May 4, 2020 $26.91 $24.30 −9.7% Decline
February 5, 2020 $52.24 $52.25 0.0% Increase
November 6, 2019 $43.17 $45.75 6.0% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.67, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.67 implies a 0.4% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Performance Food Group Company is currently trading at $32.87/share, down −5.3% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 60.6% of its 52-week high of $54.49/share. The company’s stock price is down −3.7% since the last earnings report and down −9.4% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 36.86 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:PFGC Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −38.57 and a forward P/E multiple of 28.88.

Performance Food Group Company’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.19. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 28, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q4
Period End Date June 27, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $32.87
P/E Ratio −38.6x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 28.9x
PEG Ratio 0.2
Total Debt / Total Capital 39.6%
Levered Free Cash Flow $465.6 million
EV / EBITDA 16.8x

Finbox

Performance Food Group Company is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $4.632 billion and a total enterprise value of $7.245 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Staples sector and the Food & Staples Retailing industry.

Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes food and food-related products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Foodservice and Vistar. The company offers a range of frozen foods, including meats, fully prepared appetizers and entrees, fruits, vegetables, and desserts; canned and dry foods; fresh meats; dairy products; beverage products; imported specialties; fresh produce; and candy, snack, and other products, as well as beef, seafood, shortenings and oils, baked goods, salad dressings, teas and cocoas, pork, and others. It also supplies various non-food items, such as paper products comprising pizza boxes, disposable napkins, plates, and cups; tableware that include china and silverware; cookware, which comprise pots, pans, and utensils; restaurant and kitchen equipment and supplies; cigarettes and other tobacco products; and cleaning supplies. In addition, the company offers value-added services related to foodservice distribution, including electronic order-taking, payment, and other Internet based services; various reports and other data, menu planning advice, food safety training, and assistance in inventory control, as well as access to various third-party services designed to add value to its customers’ businesses. It serves independent and chain restaurants, schools, business and industry locations, hospitals, vending distributors, office coffee service distributors, retailers, theaters, convenience stores, and hospitality providers, as well as franchises and other institutional customers. The company markets and distributes approximately 200,000 food and food-related products from 109 distribution centers to approximately 200,000 customer locations. Performance Food Group Company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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