Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE:FRT) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 5, 2020.
The company is expected to report earnings of $0.35/share on revenue of $206.6 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.35/share is based on a poll of 3 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −57.8% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.84/share.
The revenue forecast of $206.6 million based on a poll of 5 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −11.4%. Last year the company reported $233.2 million in revenue for the quarter.
| Metric | Expected | Prior Year | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $206.57 | $233.21 | −11.4% |
| EPS | $0.35 | $0.84 | −57.8% |
Earnings Call Trends
Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 5 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 2 quarters, and met expectations 1 quarter.
What are your expectations from Federal Realty Investment Trust for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!
| Quarter | Expected | Reported | Surprise | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2, 2020 | $0.40 | $0.11 | −72.4% | Missed |
| Q1, 2020 | $0.70 | $0.70 | 0% | Met |
| Q4, 2019 | $0.78 | $0.79 | 0.6% | Beat |
| Q3, 2019 | $0.81 | $0.84 | 4.0% | Beat |
| Q2, 2019 | $0.82 | $1.05 | 27.5% | Beat |
| Q1, 2019 | $0.75 | $0.78 | 3.5% | Beat |
| Q4, 2018 | $0.77 | $0.71 | −8.0% | Missed |
| Q3, 2018 | $0.79 | $0.82 | 3.5% | Beat |
In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price did not react much to the update.
| Report Date | Price Day Prior | Price Next Day | Change % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 5, 2020 | $76.62 | $76.42 | −0.3% | Decline |
| May 6, 2020 | $77.24 | $74.99 | −2.9% | Decline |
| February 10, 2020 | $128.02 | $124 | −3.1% | Decline |
| October 30, 2019 | $138.98 | $136.01 | −2.1% | Decline |
The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.52, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.52 implies a 0.6% chance of earnings manipulation.
Fundamentals And Technical Analysis
Federal Realty Investment Trust is currently trading at $68.11/share, down −3.0% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 48.3% of its 52-week high of $141.32/share. The company’s stock price is down −10.9% since the last earnings report and down −7.7% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 34.62 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.
The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 19.14 and a forward P/E multiple of 50.43.
Federal Realty Investment Trust’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.29. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last Reported Fiscal Period Key | FY2020.Q2 |
| Period End Date | June 30, 2020 |
| Stock Price (Current) | $68.11 |
| P/E Ratio | 19.1x |
| P/E Ratio (Fwd) | 50.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.2 |
| Total Debt / Total Capital | 44.4% |
| Levered Free Cash Flow | $324.5 million |
| EV / EBITDA | 17.4x |
Federal Realty Investment Trust is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $5.311 billion and a total enterprise value of $9.361 billion. The company operates in the Real Estate sector and the Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) industry.
Federal Realty is a recognized leader in the ownership, operation and redevelopment of high-quality retail-based properties located primarily in major coastal markets from Washington, D.C. to Boston as well as San Francisco and Los Angeles. Founded in 1962, Federal Realty’s mission is to deliver long-term, sustainable growth through investing in densely populated, affluent communities where retail demand exceeds supply. Its expertise includes creating urban, mixed-use neighborhoods like Santana Row in San Jose, California, Pike & Rose in North Bethesda, Maryland and Assembly Row in Somerville, Massachusetts. These unique and vibrant environments that combine shopping, dining, living and working provide a destination experience valued by their respective communities. Federal Realty’s 104 properties include approximately 2,900 tenants, in 24 million square feet, and approximately 2,800 residential units. Federal Realty has increased its quarterly dividends to its shareholders for 53 consecutive years, the longest record in the REIT industry. Federal Realty is an S&P 500 index member and its shares are traded on the NYSE under the symbol FRT.
