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Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE:FRT) Q3 Earnings: What Can You Expect?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE:FRT) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 5, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.35/share on revenue of $206.6 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.35/share is based on a poll of 3 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −57.8% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.84/share.

The revenue forecast of $206.6 million based on a poll of 5 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −11.4%. Last year the company reported $233.2 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −57.8% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $206.57 $233.21 −11.4%
EPS $0.35 $0.84 −57.8%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 5 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 2 quarters, and met expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Federal Realty Investment Trust for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.40 $0.11 −72.4% Missed
Q1, 2020 $0.70 $0.70 0% Met
Q4, 2019 $0.78 $0.79 0.6% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.81 $0.84 4.0% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.82 $1.05 27.5% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.75 $0.78 3.5% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.77 $0.71 −8.0% Missed
Q3, 2018 $0.79 $0.82 3.5% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price did not react much to the update.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 5, 2020 $76.62 $76.42 −0.3% Decline
May 6, 2020 $77.24 $74.99 −2.9% Decline
February 10, 2020 $128.02 $124 −3.1% Decline
October 30, 2019 $138.98 $136.01 −2.1% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.52, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.52 implies a 0.6% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Federal Realty Investment Trust is currently trading at $68.11/share, down −3.0% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 48.3% of its 52-week high of $141.32/share. The company’s stock price is down −10.9% since the last earnings report and down −7.7% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 34.62 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:FRT Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 19.14 and a forward P/E multiple of 50.43.

Federal Realty Investment Trust’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.29. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 28, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $68.11
P/E Ratio 19.1x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 50.4x
PEG Ratio 3.2
Total Debt / Total Capital 44.4%
Levered Free Cash Flow $324.5 million
EV / EBITDA 17.4x

Finbox

Federal Realty Investment Trust is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $5.311 billion and a total enterprise value of $9.361 billion. The company operates in the Real Estate sector and the Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) industry.

Federal Realty is a recognized leader in the ownership, operation and redevelopment of high-quality retail-based properties located primarily in major coastal markets from Washington, D.C. to Boston as well as San Francisco and Los Angeles. Founded in 1962, Federal Realty’s mission is to deliver long-term, sustainable growth through investing in densely populated, affluent communities where retail demand exceeds supply. Its expertise includes creating urban, mixed-use neighborhoods like Santana Row in San Jose, California, Pike & Rose in North Bethesda, Maryland and Assembly Row in Somerville, Massachusetts. These unique and vibrant environments that combine shopping, dining, living and working provide a destination experience valued by their respective communities. Federal Realty’s 104 properties include approximately 2,900 tenants, in 24 million square feet, and approximately 2,800 residential units. Federal Realty has increased its quarterly dividends to its shareholders for 53 consecutive years, the longest record in the REIT industry. Federal Realty is an S&P 500 index member and its shares are traded on the NYSE under the symbol FRT.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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