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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGS:ACAD) Q3 Earnings: What Can You Expect?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NasdaqGS:ACAD) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 4, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.38/share on revenue of $118.8 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.38/share is based on a poll of 14 analysts and represents a decline in eps of -30.8% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of -$0.29/share.

The revenue forecast of $118.8 million based on a poll of 16 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 25.6%. Last year the company reported $94.586 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.38/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $118.82 $94.59 25.6%
EPS -$0.38 -$0.29 -30.8%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 2 quarters.

What are your expectations from ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$0.43 -$0.27 −37.7% Beat
Q1, 2020 -$0.47 -$0.57 22.5% Missed
Q4, 2019 -$0.36 -$0.34 −6.7% Beat
Q3, 2019 -$0.40 -$0.29 −27.2% Beat
Q2, 2019 -$0.46 -$0.38 −17.2% Beat
Q1, 2019 -$0.53 -$0.59 11.8% Missed
Q4, 2018 -$0.55 -$0.50 −9.2% Beat
Q3, 2018 -$0.58 -$0.50 −13.2% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price did not react much to the update.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 5, 2020 $43.52 $43.63 0.3% Increase
May 7, 2020 $48.18 $50.72 5.3% Increase
February 26, 2020 $40.67 $39.10 −3.9% Decline
October 30, 2019 $42.26 $42.41 0.4% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −3.08, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −3.08 implies a 0.1% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. is currently trading at $47.69/share, up 2.9% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 80.8% of its 52-week high of $58.72/share. The company’s stock price is up 9.3% since the last earnings report and up 16.2% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 72.38 suggests the company is trading in technically overbought territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:ACAD Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −33.07 and a forward P/E multiple of −28.05.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 11.23. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 28, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $47.69
P/E Ratio −33.1x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −28.1x
PEG Ratio −1.3
Total Debt / Total Capital 0.1%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$138.6 million
EV / EBITDA −29.2x

Finbox

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $7.365 billion and a total enterprise value of $6.714 billion. The company operates in the Healthcare sector and the Biotechnology industry.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of small molecule drugs that address unmet medical needs in central nervous system disorders. The company offers NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson’s disease psychosis. It is also developing pimavanserin as a treatment for dementia-related psychosis and as an adjunctive treatment for schizophrenia that are in Phase III clinical trials; and pimavanserin as an adjunctive treatment for major depressive disorder. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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