Q3 Earnings Preview for Popular (NasdaqGS:BPOP)

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Popular, Inc. (NasdaqGS:BPOP) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results before markets open for trading on October 28, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $1.19/share on revenue of $592.3 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19/share is based on a poll of 5 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −29.7% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $1.70/share.

The revenue forecast of $592.3 million based on a poll of 4 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −4.4%. Last year the company reported $619.7 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −29.7% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $592.31 $619.70 −4.4%
EPS $1.19 $1.70 −29.7%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 7 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarters.

What are your expectations from Popular, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.93 $1.49 59.9% Beat
Q1, 2020 $1.45 $0.37 −74.4% Missed
Q4, 2019 $1.56 $1.72 10.3% Beat
Q3, 2019 $1.60 $1.70 6.2% Beat
Q2, 2019 $1.56 $1.76 13.1% Beat
Q1, 2019 $1.45 $1.69 16.7% Beat
Q4, 2018 $1.38 $1.51 9.6% Beat
Q3, 2018 $1.21 $1.38 13.6% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 2.6%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 23, 2020 $37.50 $38.48 2.6% Increase
April 30, 2020 $41.85 $37.13 −11.3% Decline
January 28, 2020 $58.11 $56.44 −2.9% Decline
October 23, 2019 $55.07 $54.20 −1.6% Decline

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Popular, Inc. is currently trading at $40.59/share, down −1.6% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 66.0% of its 52-week high of $61.45/share. The company’s stock price is up 5.5% since the last earnings report and up 3.3% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 59.60 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:BPOP Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 6.96 and a forward P/E multiple of 9.78.

Popular, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 0.59. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 27, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $40.59
P/E Ratio 7.0x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 9.8x
PEG Ratio −0.8
Total Debt / Total Capital 36.9%
Levered Free Cash Flow $611.8 million
Price To Sales 1.7x

Finbox

Popular, Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $3.418 billion. The company operates in the Financials sector and the Banks industry.

Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services. The company accepts various deposit products. It also offers commercial and industrial loans; commercial real estate loans; residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including personal loans, credit cards, automobile loans, home equity lines of credit, and other loans to individual borrowers; construction loans; and lease financing comprising automobile loans/leases. In addition, the company provides investment banking, broker-dealer, and insurance services. As of December 31, 2019, it operated 174 branches, including 69 owned and 105 leased premises in Puerto Rico; 51 branches comprising 5 owned and 46 leased premises in New York, New Jersey, and Florida; and 622 ATMs in Puerto Rico, 23 ATMs in Virgin Islands, and 119 ATMs in the United States mainland. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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