Moderna (NasdaqGS:MRNA) Q3 2020 Earnings Prep

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Moderna, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MRNA) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on October 29, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.37/share on revenue of $82.503 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.37/share is based on a poll of 9 analysts and represents a decline in eps of -0.6% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of -$0.37/share.

The revenue forecast of $82.503 million based on a poll of 10 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 384.0%. Last year the company reported $17.046 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.37/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $82.50 $17.05 384.0%
EPS -$0.37 -$0.37 −0.6%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 5 out of the last 7 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 2 quarters.

What are your expectations from Moderna, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$0.36 -$0.31 14.6% Beat
Q1, 2020 -$0.36 -$0.35 3.8% Beat
Q4, 2019 -$0.42 -$0.37 12.2% Beat
Q3, 2019 -$0.44 -$0.37 15.6% Beat
Q2, 2019 -$0.45 -$0.41 8.9% Beat
Q1, 2019 -$0.36 -$0.40 -9.7% Missed
Q4, 2018 -$0.35 -$0.44 -25.5% Missed

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −6.0%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 5, 2020 $78.46 $73.76 −6.0% Decline
May 7, 2020 $48.95 $59.25 21.0% Increase
February 26, 2020 $23.76 $26.16 10.1% Increase
November 6, 2019 $16.89 $17.50 3.6% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of 3.11, the model suggests that the company is likely an earnings manipulator. A value of 3.11 implies a 0.1% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Moderna, Inc. is currently trading at $70.24/share, down −0.4% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 73.8% of its 52-week high of $95.21/share. The company’s stock price is down −4.8% since the last earnings report and down −1.5% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 53.63 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:MRNA Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −56.86 and a forward P/E multiple of −53.01.

Moderna, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 9.41. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 27, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $70.24
P/E Ratio −56.9x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −53.0x
PEG Ratio −1.4
Total Debt / Total Capital 0.6%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$374.4 million
EV / EBITDA −51.5x

Finbox

Moderna, Inc. is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $27.716 billion and a total enterprise value of $25.171 billion. The company operates in the Healthcare sector and the Biotechnology industry.

Moderna, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, and cardiovascular diseases. As of February 15, 2019 the company had 11 programs in clinical trials and a total of 20 development candidates in six modalities comprising prophylactic vaccines, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized regenerative therapeutics, systemic secreted therapeutics, and systemic intracellular therapeutics. The company has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca, Merck & Co., Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and a research collaboration with Harvard University. Moderna, Inc. also has collaborations with Lonza Ltd. for the manufacture of mRNA-1273, a COVID-19 vaccine; and Catalent for fill-finish manufacturing of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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