ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results before markets open for trading on October 29, 2020.
The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.31/share on revenue of $4.983 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.31/share is based on a poll of 21 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −137.9% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.82/share.
The revenue forecast of $4.983 billion based on a poll of 6 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −50.6%. Last year the company reported $10.093 billion in revenue for the quarter.
| Metric | Expected | Prior Year | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4,982.65 | $10,093.00 | −50.6% |
| EPS | -$0.31 | $0.82 | −137.9% |
Earnings Call Trends
Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 5 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 3 quarters.
What are your expectations from ConocoPhillips for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!
| Quarter | Expected | Reported | Surprise | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2, 2020 | -$0.58 | -$0.92 | -59.3% | Missed |
| Q1, 2020 | $0.17 | $0.45 | 168.0% | Beat |
| Q4, 2019 | $0.81 | $0.76 | −6.1% | Missed |
| Q3, 2019 | $0.74 | $0.82 | 10.4% | Beat |
| Q2, 2019 | $1.03 | $1.01 | −2.2% | Missed |
| Q1, 2019 | $0.90 | $1 | 10.8% | Beat |
| Q4, 2018 | $1.02 | $1.13 | 11.0% | Beat |
| Q3, 2018 | $1.19 | $1.36 | 14.7% | Beat |
In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −6.4%.
| Report Date | Price Day Prior | Price Next Day | Change % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2020 | $39.94 | $37.39 | −6.4% | Decline |
| April 30, 2020 | $42.21 | $39.14 | −7.3% | Decline |
| February 4, 2020 | $59.18 | $58.78 | −0.7% | Decline |
| October 29, 2019 | $55.68 | $55.04 | −1.1% | Decline |
The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −3.51, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −3.51 implies a 0.0% chance of earnings manipulation.
Fundamentals And Technical Analysis
ConocoPhillips is currently trading at $30.32/share, down −6.8% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 45.2% of its 52-week high of $67.13/share. The company’s stock price is down −18.9% since the last earnings report and down −6.9% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 38.52 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.
The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 14.16 and a forward P/E multiple of −38.61.
ConocoPhillips’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.03. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last Reported Fiscal Period Key | FY2020.Q2 |
| Period End Date | June 30, 2020 |
| Stock Price (Current) | $30.32 |
| P/E Ratio | 14.2x |
| P/E Ratio (Fwd) | −38.6x |
| PEG Ratio | −0.2 |
| Total Debt / Total Capital | 30.1% |
| Levered Free Cash Flow | $1.786 billion |
| EV / EBITDA | 3.7x |
ConocoPhillips is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $32.52 billion and a total enterprise value of $39.655 billion. The company operates in the Energy sector and the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry.
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. The company primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. Its portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. The company was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
