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AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB) Q3 Earnings: What Can You Expect?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE:AVB) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on October 28, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $1.01/share on revenue of $567.5 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $1.01/share is based on a poll of 5 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −5.6% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $1.07/share.

The revenue forecast of $567.5 million based on a poll of 10 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −3.2%. Last year the company reported $586.4 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −5.6% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $567.54 $586.38 −3.2%
EPS $1.01 $1.07 −5.6%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 5 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 3 quarters.

What are your expectations from AvalonBay Communities, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $1.07 $1.22 13.9% Beat
Q1, 2020 $1.26 $1.30 2.8% Beat
Q4, 2019 $1.21 $1.23 1.5% Beat
Q3, 2019 $1.17 $1.07 −8.7% Missed
Q2, 2019 $1.17 $1.09 −7.2% Missed
Q1, 2019 $1.15 $1.12 −2.9% Missed
Q4, 2018 $1.18 $1.18 0.0% Beat
Q3, 2018 $1.15 $1.40 21.3% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price did not react much to the update.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 29, 2020 $150.24 $151.20 0.6% Increase
May 6, 2020 $159.34 $160.44 0.7% Increase
February 5, 2020 $218.77 $219.13 0.2% Increase
October 28, 2019 $219.41 $215.31 −1.9% Decline

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is currently trading at $143.38/share, down −1.7% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 62.5% of its 52-week high of $229.40/share. The company’s stock price is down −5.2% since the last earnings report and down −1.5% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 36.32 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:AVB Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 25.68 and a forward P/E multiple of 34.04.

AvalonBay Communities, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.85. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 27, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $143.38
P/E Ratio 25.7x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 34.0x
PEG Ratio −1.7
Total Debt / Total Capital 27.6%
Levered Free Cash Flow $1.297 billion
EV / EBITDA 18.2x

Finbox

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $20.139 billion and a total enterprise value of $27.633 billion. The company operates in the Real Estate sector and the Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) industry.

As of June 30, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 295 apartment communities containing 86,380 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 19 communities were under development. The Company is an equity REIT in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring and managing apartment communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company’s expansion markets consisting of Southeast Florida and Denver, Colorado (the “Expansion Markets”).

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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