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Ameresco (NYSE:AMRC) Q3 Earnings: What Can You Expect?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Ameresco, Inc. (NYSE:AMRC) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on November 2, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.25/share on revenue of $247.1 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.25/share is based on a poll of 6 analysts and represents a growth in eps of 38.9% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.18/share.

The revenue forecast of $247.1 million based on a poll of 6 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 16.6%. Last year the company reported $212 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of 38.9% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $247.13 $212.03 16.6%
EPS $0.25 $0.18 38.9%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 7 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Ameresco, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.07 $0.19 192.3% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.08 $0.15 81.8% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.39 $0.46 18.6% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.26 $0.18 −30.1% Missed
Q2, 2019 $0.15 $0.18 22.0% Beat
Q1, 2019 -$0.02 $0.02 200.0% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.18 $0.23 25.5% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.15 $0.23 53.3% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 11.5%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
August 3, 2020 $27.68 $30.86 11.5% Increase
May 4, 2020 $17.08 $19.20 12.4% Increase
March 2, 2020 $22.54 $22.50 −0.2% Decline
November 5, 2019 $15.16 $15.40 1.6% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −1.41, the model suggests that the company is likely an earnings manipulator. A value of −1.41 implies a 7.9% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Ameresco, Inc. is currently trading at $39.51/share, down −7.6% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 84.4% of its 52-week high of $46.81/share. The company’s stock price is up 28.0% since the last earnings report and down −7.2% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 62.25 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:AMRC Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 45.29 and a forward P/E multiple of 45.65.

Ameresco, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 4.29. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 27, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $39.51
P/E Ratio 45.3x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 45.7x
PEG Ratio 3.1
Total Debt / Total Capital 25.9%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$330.6 million
EV / EBITDA 27.9x

Finbox

Ameresco, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $1.886 billion and a total enterprise value of $2.605 billion. The company operates in the Industrials sector and the Construction & Engineering industry.

Ameresco, Inc. provides comprehensive energy services for businesses and organizations in North America and Europe. It offers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security and resilience, asset sustainability, and renewable energy solutions. The company operates through U.S. Regions, U.S. Federal, Canada, and Non-Solar Distributed Generation segments. It designs, develops, engineers, and installs projects that reduce the energy, as well as operations and maintenance costs of customers’ facilities. The company’s projects primarily include various measures customized for the facility and designed to enhance the efficiency of building systems, such as heating, ventilation, cooling, and lighting systems. It also offers renewable energy products and services, such as the construction of small-scale plants for customers that produce electricity, gas, heat, or cooling from renewable sources of energy; and sells electricity and processed renewable gas fuel, heat, or cooling. In addition, the company provides integrated- photovoltaic (PV) and consulting, and enterprise energy management services; sells solar PV energy products and systems; and owns and operates a wind power project located in County Kerry, Ireland. It serves federal, state, and local governments, as well as healthcare and educational institutions, housing authorities, and commercial and industrial customers. As of December 31, 2019, the company owned and operated 99 small-scale renewable energy plants and solar PV installations. Ameresco, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

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