Q3 Earnings Preview for UMB Financial (NasdaqGS:UMBF)

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

UMB Financial Corporation (NasdaqGS:UMBF) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on October 27, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $1.02/share on revenue of $290.5 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $1.02/share is based on a poll of 6 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −19.8% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $1.27/share.

The revenue forecast of $290.5 million based on a poll of 4 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth in revenue of 6.9%. Last year the company reported $271.9 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −19.8% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $290.52 $271.89 6.9%
EPS $1.02 $1.27 −19.8%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 2 quarters, and met expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from UMB Financial Corporation for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.37 $1.33 259.5% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.87 -$0.04 −104.6% Missed
Q4, 2019 $1.17 $1.36 16.7% Beat
Q3, 2019 $1.17 $1.27 8.8% Beat
Q2, 2019 $1.17 $1.17 0% Met
Q1, 2019 $1.10 $1.19 8.5% Beat
Q4, 2018 $1.11 $0.56 −49.5% Missed
Q3, 2018 $1.12 $1.16 3.3% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 6.4%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 28, 2020 $46.83 $49.83 6.4% Increase
April 28, 2020 $47.78 $51.66 8.1% Increase
January 28, 2020 $64.82 $67.27 3.8% Increase
October 29, 2019 $66.84 $67.48 1.0% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

UMB Financial Corporation is currently trading at $56.86/share, up 2.7% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 80.9% of its 52-week high of $70.26/share. The company’s stock price is up 14.1% since the last earnings report and up 4.8% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 58.27 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:UMBF Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 14.68 and a forward P/E multiple of 16.71.

UMB Financial Corporation’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 0.98. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 21, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $56.86
P/E Ratio 14.7x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 16.7x
PEG Ratio −2.8
Total Debt / Total Capital 43.7%
Levered Free Cash Flow $224.3 million
Price To Sales 2.7x

Finbox

UMB Financial Corporation is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $2.731 billion. The company operates in the Financials sector and the Banks industry.

UMB Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for the UMB Bank that provides various banking and other financial services. The company operates through four segments: Commercial Banking, Institutional Banking, Personal Banking, and Healthcare Services. The Commercial Banking segment provides commercial loans and credit cards, letters of credit; loan syndication, consultative services, and various financial options; capital markets services, including asset-based financing, asset securitization, equity and mezzanine financing, factoring, and private and public placement of senior debt, as well as merger and acquisition consulting; and depository, account reconciliation, electronic fund transfer, controlled disbursements, lockbox, and remote deposit capture services. The Institutional Banking segment offers bond trading transactions, cash letter collections, investment portfolio accounting and safekeeping, asset/liability management reporting, and federal funds transactions; and fund administration and accounting, investor services and transfer agency, marketing and distribution, custody, and alternative investment services. The Personal Banking segment provides deposit accounts, retail credit cards, installment loans, home equity lines of credit, residential mortgages, and small business loans, as well as call center, internet banking and ATM network, private banking, brokerage, insurance, investment advisory, trust, and custody services. The Healthcare Services segment offers healthcare payment solutions comprising custodial services for health savings accounts, as well as private label and multipurpose debit cards. The company operates through a network of branches and offices in the states of Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona, Nebraska, Iowa, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Indiana, Utah, Minnesota, California, and Wisconsin. UMB Financial Corporation was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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