Liberty Oilfield Services Q3 Earnings: Can NYSE:LBRT Hit Its -$0.46 EPS Target?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. (NYSE:LBRT) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on October 27, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.46/share on revenue of $134.8 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.46/share is based on a poll of 11 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −361.3% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.17/share.

The revenue forecast of $134.8 million based on a poll of 12 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −73.8%. Last year the company reported $515.1 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.46/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $134.81 $515.08 −73.8%
EPS -$0.46 $0.17 −361.3%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 3 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 5 quarters.

What are your expectations from Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$0.49 -$0.41 16.8% Beat
Q1, 2020 -$0.05 $0.04 180.2% Beat
Q4, 2019 -$0.08 -$0.19 -138.2% Missed
Q3, 2019 $0.27 $0.17 −35.2% Missed
Q2, 2019 $0.28 $0.33 19.5% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.22 $0.18 −18.6% Missed
Q4, 2018 $0.32 $0.13 −57.4% Missed
Q3, 2018 $0.58 $0.31 −46.5% Missed

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −3.9%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 28, 2020 $6.71 $6.45 −3.9% Decline
April 29, 2020 $3.59 $4.72 31.5% Increase
February 5, 2020 $8.01 $7.80 −2.6% Decline
October 29, 2019 $9.24 $9.37 1.4% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −4.67, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −4.67 implies a 0.0% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. is currently trading at $7.88/share, up 3.7% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 69.1% of its 52-week high of $11.40/share. The company’s stock price is up 22.2% since the last earnings report and down −0.5% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 45.06 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:LBRT Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −14.75 and a forward P/E multiple of −4.44.

Liberty Oilfield Services Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.67. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 21, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $7.88
P/E Ratio −14.8x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −4.4x
PEG Ratio 0.1
Total Debt / Total Capital 19.9%
Levered Free Cash Flow $124.8 million
EV / EBITDA 7.3x

Finbox

Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $666.8 million and a total enterprise value of $936.8 million. The company operates in the Energy sector and the Energy Equipment & Services industry.

Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. provides hydraulic fracturing services to onshore oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in North America. The company offers its services primarily in the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford Shale, the Denver-Julesburg Basin, the Williston Basin, and the Powder River Basin. Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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