Ford Motor (NYSE:F) Q3 2020 Earnings Prep

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on October 28, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.16/share on revenue of $32.794 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16/share is based on a poll of 15 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −51.8% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.34/share.

The revenue forecast of $32.794 billion based on a poll of 6 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −3.4%. Last year the company reported $33.931 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −51.8% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $32,794.15 $33,931.00 −3.4%
EPS $0.16 $0.34 −51.8%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 4 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 3 quarters, and met expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Ford Motor Company for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$1.16 -$0.35 69.9% Beat
Q1, 2020 -$0.06 -$0.23 -293.0% Missed
Q4, 2019 $0.17 $0.12 −28.8% Missed
Q3, 2019 $0.26 $0.34 29.8% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.31 $0.28 −9.0% Missed
Q1, 2019 $0.27 $0.44 62.9% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.30 $0.30 0% Met
Q3, 2018 $0.28 $0.29 2.5% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −4.5%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 30, 2020 $6.92 $6.61 −4.5% Decline
April 28, 2020 $5.17 $5.26 1.7% Increase
February 4, 2020 $8.98 $8.31 −7.5% Decline
October 23, 2019 $9.07 $8.60 −5.2% Decline

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −0.98, the model suggests that the company is likely an earnings manipulator. A value of −0.98 implies a 16.3% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Ford Motor Company is currently trading at $7.74/share, up 2.0% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 80.8% of its 52-week high of $9.57/share. The company’s stock price is up 17.1% since the last earnings report and up 2.2% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 65.54 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:F Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −14.50 and a forward P/E multiple of −13.67.

Ford Motor Company’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.00. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 21, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $7.74
P/E Ratio −14.5x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −13.7x
PEG Ratio 0.1
Total Debt / Total Capital 85.4%
Levered Free Cash Flow $9.24 billion
EV / EBITDA 26.7x

Finbox

Ford Motor Company is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $30.793 billion and a total enterprise value of $168.1 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Automobiles industry.

Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, markets, and services a range of Ford cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. It operates through three segments: Automotive, Mobility, and Ford Credit. The Automotive segment sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. The Mobility segment designs and builds mobility services; and provides self-driving systems development and vehicle integration, autonomous vehicle research and engineering, and autonomous vehicle transportation-as-a-service network development services. The Ford Credit segment primarily engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. It provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. This segment also offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. The company was founded in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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