Q3 Earnings Preview for TRI Pointe (NYSE:TPH)

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

TRI Pointe Group, Inc. (NYSE:TPH) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results before markets open for trading on October 22, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.43/share on revenue of $734.9 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43/share is based on a poll of 8 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −4.9% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.45/share.

The revenue forecast of $734.9 million based on a poll of 8 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −1.7%. Last year the company reported $747.5 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −4.9% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $734.91 $747.49 −1.7%
EPS $0.43 $0.45 −4.9%

Earnings Call Trends

Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 8 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance.

What are your expectations from TRI Pointe Group, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $0.34 $0.51 50.6% Beat
Q1, 2020 $0.17 $0.24 41.2% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.71 $0.95 34.5% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.36 $0.45 25.4% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.15 $0.19 26.3% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.02 $0.03 58.7% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.65 $0.79 21.0% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.39 $0.43 10.2% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by falling −4.5%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 24, 2020 $17.05 $16.29 −4.5% Decline
April 23, 2020 $9.61 $10.25 6.7% Increase
February 18, 2020 $17.50 $18.04 3.1% Increase
October 31, 2019 $15.57 $15.84 1.7% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

TRI Pointe Group, Inc. is currently trading at $18.59/share, down −2.2% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 94.9% of its 52-week high of $19.59/share. The company’s stock price is up 14.1% since the last earnings report and down −1.7% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 54.26 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:TPH Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 9.00 and a forward P/E multiple of 11.89.

TRI Pointe Group, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.11. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 20, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $18.59
P/E Ratio 9.0x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 11.9x
PEG Ratio 0.2
Total Debt / Total Capital 36.8%
Levered Free Cash Flow $557 million
EV / EBITDA 8.2x

Finbox

TRI Pointe Group, Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $2.423 billion and a total enterprise value of $3.419 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Household Durables industry.

TRI Pointe Group, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of single-family detached and attached homes in the United States. The company operates a portfolio of six brands across ten states, including Maracay in Arizona; Pardee Homes in California and Nevada; Quadrant Homes in Washington; Trendmaker Homes in Texas; TRI Pointe Homes in California, Colorado and the Carolinas; and Winchester Homes in Maryland and Virginia. As of December 31, 2019, its operations consisted of 137 active selling communities and 30,029 lots owned or controlled. The company sells its homes through own sales representatives and independent real estate brokers. It also provides financial services, such as mortgage financing, title and escrow, and property and casualty insurance agency services. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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