Bloomin’ Brands (NasdaqGS:BLMN) Q3 Earnings: What Can You Expect?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (NasdaqGS:BLMN) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on October 23, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.34/share on revenue of $745.6 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.34/share is based on a poll of 15 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −441.4% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.10/share.

The revenue forecast of $745.6 million based on a poll of 13 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −22.9%. Last year the company reported $967.1 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.34/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $745.65 $967.14 −22.9%
EPS -$0.34 $0.10 −441.4%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 5 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 2 quarters, and met expectations 1 quarters.

What are your expectations from Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$1.16 -$0.74 −36.3% Missed
Q1, 2020 $0.21 $0.14 −34.2% Missed
Q4, 2019 $0.35 $0.32 −8.6% Missed
Q3, 2019 $0.10 $0.10 −0.5% Missed
Q2, 2019 $0.35 $0.36 3.3% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.73 $0.75 3.4% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.26 $0.30 14.9% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.09 $0.10 17.6% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 28, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 7.4%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 24, 2020 $10.76 $11.56 7.4% Increase
May 5, 2020 $10.42 $9.59 −8.0% Decline
February 18, 2020 $21.54 $23.05 7.0% Increase
November 6, 2019 $20.95 $23.18 10.6% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −3.00, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −3.00 implies a 0.1% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. is currently trading at $17.11/share, down −1.6% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 70.4% of its 52-week high of $24.29/share. The company’s stock price is up 48.0% since the last earnings report and down −0.6% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 56.92 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:BLMN Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −15.87 and a forward P/E multiple of −19.86.

Bloomin’ Brands, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 70.00. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 20, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 28, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $17.11
P/E Ratio −15.9x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −19.9x
PEG Ratio 0.1
Total Debt / Total Capital 63.9%
Levered Free Cash Flow $47.489 million
EV / EBITDA 16.9x

Finbox

Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $1.478 billion and a total enterprise value of $3.98 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry.

Bloomin’ Brands, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates casual, upscale casual, and fine dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. Its restaurant portfolio has four concepts, including Outback Steakhouse, a casual steakhouse restaurant; Carrabba’s Italian Grill, a casual Italian restaurant; Bonefish Grill, an upscale casual seafood restaurant; and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, a contemporary steakhouse. As of December 29, 2019, the company owned and operated 1,045 restaurants and franchised 173 restaurants across 48 states; and owned and operated 128 restaurants and franchised 127 restaurants across 21 countries, Puerto Rico, and Guam. Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Tampa, Florida.

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