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BJ’s Restaurants (NasdaqGS:BJRI) Q3 2020 Earnings Preview

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (NasdaqGS:BJRI) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on October 22, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.77/share on revenue of $180.4 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.77/share is based on a poll of 13 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −525.2% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $0.18/share.

The revenue forecast of $180.4 million based on a poll of 13 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −35.3%. Last year the company reported $278.7 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.77/share for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $180.44 $278.74 −35.3%
EPS -$0.77 $0.18 −525.2%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed 2 quarters.

What are your expectations from BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$1.91 -$0.99 48.1% Beat
Q1, 2020 -$0.28 -$0.22 22.0% Beat
Q4, 2019 $0.46 $0.53 14.9% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.11 $0.18 69.4% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.74 $0.68 −8.1% Missed
Q1, 2019 $0.51 $0.60 18.0% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.51 $0.49 −3.6% Missed
Q3, 2018 $0.22 $0.39 74.4% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 11.4%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 23, 2020 $18.79 $20.94 11.4% Increase
May 7, 2020 $18.85 $21.40 13.5% Increase
February 20, 2020 $43.10 $38.82 −9.9% Decline
October 24, 2019 $37.29 $43.35 16.3% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.66, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.66 implies a 0.4% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. is currently trading at $32.62/share, up 0.4% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 73.4% of its 52-week high of $44.47/share. The company’s stock price is up 55.8% since the last earnings report and up 2.2% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 51.87 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NasdaqGS:BJRI Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of −48.34 and a forward P/E multiple of −16.22.

BJ’s Restaurants, Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.32. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 20, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $32.62
P/E Ratio −48.3x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) −16.2x
PEG Ratio 0.4
Total Debt / Total Capital 47.2%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$2.072 million
EV / EBITDA 25.7x

Finbox

BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $726.8 million and a total enterprise value of $1.289 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry.

BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. owns and operates casual dining restaurants in the United States. Its restaurants offer pizzas, craft and other beers, appetizers, entrées, pastas, sandwiches, specialty salads, and desserts. As of April 6, 2020, the company operated 209 restaurants. BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is based in Huntington Beach, California.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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