Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on October 20, 2020.
The company is expected to report earnings of $1.36/share on revenue of $7.267 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $1.36/share is based on a poll of 14 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −4.9% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $1.43/share.
The revenue forecast of $7.267 billion based on a poll of 11 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −4.9%. Last year the company reported $7.642 billion in revenue for the quarter.
| Metric | Expected | Prior Year | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7,266.84 | $7,642.00 | −4.9% |
| EPS | $1.36 | $1.43 | −4.9% |
Earnings Call Trends
Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 8 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance.
What are your expectations from Philip Morris International Inc. for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!
| Quarter | Expected | Reported | Surprise | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2, 2020 | $1.10 | $1.29 | 17.4% | Beat |
| Q1, 2020 | $1.13 | $1.21 | 6.9% | Beat |
| Q4, 2019 | $1.21 | $1.22 | 0.9% | Beat |
| Q3, 2019 | $1.36 | $1.43 | 5.2% | Beat |
| Q2, 2019 | $1.33 | $1.46 | 10.1% | Beat |
| Q1, 2019 | $1.01 | $1.09 | 8.3% | Beat |
| Q4, 2018 | $1.16 | $1.25 | 7.4% | Beat |
| Q3, 2018 | $1.29 | $1.44 | 11.8% | Beat |
In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price reacted by increasing 4.3%.
| Report Date | Price Day Prior | Price Next Day | Change % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 21, 2020 | $72.89 | $76 | 4.3% | Increase |
| April 21, 2020 | $76.86 | $73.06 | −4.9% | Decline |
| February 6, 2020 | $83.94 | $87.45 | 4.2% | Increase |
| October 17, 2019 | $79.10 | $80.55 | 1.8% | Increase |
The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.68, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.68 implies a 0.4% chance of earnings manipulation.
Fundamentals And Technical Analysis
Philip Morris International Inc. is currently trading at $79.07/share, down −0.3% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 87.5% of its 52-week high of $90.17/share. The company’s stock price is up 4.0% since the last earnings report and down −0.3% over the previous week.
The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 55.93 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.
The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 16.97 and a forward P/E multiple of 15.57.
Philip Morris International Inc.’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of −10.28. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Last Reported Fiscal Period Key | FY2020.Q2 |
| Period End Date | June 30, 2020 |
| Stock Price (Current) | $79.07 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.0x |
| P/E Ratio (Fwd) | 15.6x |
| PEG Ratio | −2.4 |
| Total Debt / Total Capital | 19.1% |
| Levered Free Cash Flow | $7.783 billion |
| EV / EBITDA | 12.2x |
Philip Morris International Inc. is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $123.4 billion and a total enterprise value of $150.8 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Staples sector and the Tobacco industry.
Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes, other nicotine-containing products, smoke-free products, and related electronic devices and accessories. The company offers IQOS smoke-free products, including heated tobacco and nicotine-containing vapor products under the HEETS, HEETS Marlboro, and HEETS FROM MARLBORO brands, as well as the Marlboro HeatSticks and Parliament HeatSticks brands. It also sells its products under the Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris brands. In addition, the company owns various cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia; and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. It markets and sells its products in the European Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South and Southeast Asia, East Asia, Australia, Latin America, and Canada. Philip Morris International Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
