Carlisle Q3 Earnings: Can NYSE:CSL Hit Its $1.72 EPS Target?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Carlisle Companies Incorporated (NYSE:CSL) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results after markets close for trading on October 20, 2020.

The company is expected to report earnings of $1.72/share on revenue of $1.123 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $1.72/share is based on a poll of 6 analysts and represents a decline in eps of −30.2% over the same quarter last year, when the company reported earnings of $2.47/share.

The revenue forecast of $1.123 billion based on a poll of 8 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline in revenue of −12.3%. Last year the company reported $1.281 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS contraction of −30.2% for Q3, 2020
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $1,122.92 $1,280.60 −12.3%
EPS $1.72 $2.47 −30.2%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 7 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarters.

What are your expectations from Carlisle Companies Incorporated for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 $1.14 $1.61 41.7% Beat
Q1, 2020 $1.02 $1.29 27.0% Beat
Q4, 2019 $1.62 $1.78 10.0% Beat
Q3, 2019 $2.29 $2.47 7.8% Beat
Q2, 2019 $2.35 $2.62 11.6% Beat
Q1, 2019 $1.13 $1.41 24.8% Beat
Q4, 2018 $1.26 $1.58 24.9% Beat
Q3, 2018 $1.73 $1.68 −3.0% Missed

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2020, the stock price did not react much to the update.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
July 21, 2020 $122.63 $123.07 0.4% Increase
April 21, 2020 $122.63 $119.88 −2.2% Decline
February 6, 2020 $162.81 $162.75 0.0% Decline
October 22, 2019 $145.30 $154.39 6.3% Increase

The other question to consider is one of earnings manipulation. There is a lot of pressure on management each quarter to deliver on earnings expectations. The Beneish M-Score is a statistical model that provides some insight into whether the company might be manipulating earnings. With a Beneish M-Score of −2.93, the model suggests that the company is not likely to be an earnings manipulator. A value of −2.93 implies a 0.2% chance of earnings manipulation.

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Carlisle Companies Incorporated is currently trading at $127.21/share, down −0.8% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 75.3% of its 52-week high of $169.86/share. The company’s stock price is up 3.4% since the last earnings report and down −1.2% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 54.35 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NYSE:CSL Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 18.23 and a forward P/E multiple of 22.56.

Carlisle Companies Incorporated’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.75. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of October 19, 2020
Metric Value
Last Reported Fiscal Period Key FY2020.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2020
Stock Price (Current) $127.21
P/E Ratio 18.2x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 22.6x
PEG Ratio −2.7
Total Debt / Total Capital 22.8%
Levered Free Cash Flow $635.9 million
EV / EBITDA 10.6x

Finbox

Carlisle Companies Incorporated is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $6.977 billion and a total enterprise value of $8.317 billion. The company operates in the Industrials sector and the Industrial Conglomerates industry.

Carlisle Companies Incorporated operates as a diversified manufacturer of engineered products in the United States, Europe, Asia, Canada, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company’s Carlisle Construction Materials segment offers thermoplastic polyolefin, ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber, and polyvinyl chloride roofing membranes that are used on non-residential low-sloped roofs; roofing accessories, such as flashings, fasteners, sealing tapes, coatings, and waterproofing products; rigid foam insulation panels for roofing applications; specialty polyurethane products; vapor and air barriers, HVAC duct sealants, and hardware; and block molded polystyrene. Its Carlisle Interconnect Technologies segment engineers, manufactures, and sells wires, cables, connectors, contacts and cable assemblies, and satellite communication equipment to transfer power and data for the aerospace, medical, defense electronics, test and measurement equipment, and other industrial markets; and thermoforming, medical device contract manufacturing, precision machining and metals, and medical injection molding to medical device markets. The company’s Carlisle Fluid Technologies segment offers liquid and powder finishing equipment and system components in the automotive, automotive refinishing, aerospace, agriculture, construction, marine, and rail industries. Its Carlisle Brake & Friction segment provides braking products and systems, and clutch transmission friction products for off-highway, on-highway, aircraft, and other industrial applications; and motorsport braking products. The company sells its product under the Binks, DeVilbiss, Ransburg, BGK, MS Powder, Hawk, Wellman, and Velvetouch brand names. It also distributes architectural metal roof panels, steel and aluminum flat sheets and coils, wall panels, perimeter roof edge systems, and related accessories. Carlisle Companies Incorporated was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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