Umpqua (UMPQ) Q4 Earnings: What Can You Expect?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Umpqua Holdings Corporation (NASDAQGS:UMPQ) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results on January 22, 2020. Management plans to host its Q4 2019 earnings conference call on the morning after on January 23, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. PT.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.35/share on revenue of $302.5 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.35/share is based on a poll of 7 analysts and represents a decline of -15.3% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $0.41/share.

The revenue forecast of $302.5 million based on a poll of 7 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline of -0.6%. Last year the company reported $304.2 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS decline of -$0.06/share for Q4, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $302.50 $304.20 -0.6%
EPS $0.35 $0.41 -15.3%

Earnings Call Trends

Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 8 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance.

What are your expectations from Umpqua for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2019 $0.37 $0.39 5.5% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.39 $0.61 58.2% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.38 $0.40 7.5% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.39 $0.41 5.9% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.36 $0.40 10.8% Beat
Q2, 2018 $0.34 $0.37 7.7% Beat
Q1, 2018 $0.27 $0.34 25.5% Beat
Q4, 2017 $0.29 $0.32 9.8% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report.

After the last earnings report for the period ending September 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by falling by -1.3%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-10-16 $15.98 $15.77 -1.3% Decline
2019-07-17 $16.71 $16.45 -1.6% Decline
2019-04-17 $18.08 $17.10 -5.4% Decline
2019-01-23 $18.34 $17.35 -5.4% Decline

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Umpqua is currently trading at $18.27/share, down -0.8% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 98.1% of its 52-week high of $18.63/share. The company’s stock price is up 15.9% since the last earnings report and up 0.2% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 70.83 suggests the company is trading in technically overbought territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NASDAQGS:UMPQ Stock Price Chart Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 11.6x and a forward P/E multiple of 12.0x. Umpqua’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 0.9x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of January 21, 2020
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q3
Period End Date September 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $18.27
P/E Ratio 11.6x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 12.0x
PEG Ratio -9.6
Total Debt to Capital (%) 31.6%
Levered Free Cash Flow $97.235 million
Market Capitalization $4.054 billion

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Umpqua Holdings Corporation

Umpqua Holdings Corporation is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $4.054 billion. The company operates in the Financial sector and the Banks industry.

Umpqua operates as the holding company of Umpqua Bank that provides commercial and retail banking, and retail brokerage services. It operates through four segments: Wholesale Bank, Wealth Management, Retail Bank, and Home Lending. The company offers deposit products, including non-interest bearing checking, interest-bearing checking and savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also provides loans for corporate and commercial customers, such as accounts receivable and inventory financing, multi-family and equipment loans, commercial equipment leases, international trade, real estate construction loans, permanent financing products, and small business administration program financing, as well as capital markets and treasury management services.

In addition, the company offers loan products for small businesses; commercial and industrial loans; residential real estate loans for the construction, purchase, and refinancing of residential owner-occupied and rental properties; and consumer loans comprising secured and unsecured personal loans, home equity and personal lines of credit, and motor vehicle loans. Further, it provides financial planning, trust, and investment services; treasury and cash management services; retail brokerage and investment advisory services; and digital, mobile, telephone, text, and online banking services.

The company serves middle-market corporate, commercial, and business banking customers; individual investors; and high net worth individuals. As of December 31, 2018, it operated commercial banking centers in 299 locations in Oregon, Washington, California, Idaho, and Nevada.

The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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