Q4 Earnings Preview for Simmons First National (SFNC)

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Simmons First National Corporation (NASDAQGS:SFNC) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results on January 23, 2020, before markets open for trading. The company is expected to report earnings of $0.62/share on revenue of $208 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.62/share is based on a poll of 5 analysts and represents a growth of 1.6% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $0.61/share.

The revenue forecast of $208 million based on a poll of 5 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 20.7%. Last year the company reported $172.4 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of $0.01/share for Q4, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $208.00 $172.37 20.7%
EPS $0.62 $0.61 1.6%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 1 quarter, and met expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Simmons First National for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2019 $0.64 $0.87 35.9% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.59 $0.68 14.3% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.54 $0.53 -1.9% Missed
Q4, 2018 $0.61 $0.61 0.0% Meet
Q3, 2018 $0.58 $0.61 5.2% Beat
Q2, 2018 $0.58 $0.59 1.7% Beat
Q1, 2018 $0.51 $0.57 11.8% Beat
Q4, 2017 $0.45 $0.48 7.8% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report.

After the last earnings report for the period ending September 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by increasing by 1.2%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-10-22 $24.05 $24.33 1.2% Increase
2019-07-23 $23.22 $25.67 10.6% Increase
2019-04-22 $25.47 $24.56 -3.6% Decline
2019-01-22 $26.48 $25.25 -4.6% Decline

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Simmons First National is currently trading at $25.59/share, down -2.0% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 91.8% of its 52-week high of $27.87/share. The company’s stock price is up 5.2% since the last earnings report and down -1.7% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 49.66 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NASDAQGS:SFNC Stock Price Chart Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12.3x and a forward P/E multiple of 12.7x. Simmons First National’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.2x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of January 21, 2020
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q3
Period End Date September 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $25.59
P/E Ratio 12.3x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 12.7x
PEG Ratio 0.8
Total Debt to Capital (%) 35.0%
Levered Free Cash Flow $249.8 million
Market Capitalization $2.976 billion

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Simmons First National Corporation

Simmons First National Corporation is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $2.976 billion. The company operates in the Financial sector and the Banks industry.

Simmons First National Corporation operates as the holding company for Simmons Bank that provides financial products and services to individuals and businesses. It offers checking, savings, and time deposits; loan products, including consumer, real estate, commercial, agricultural, equipment, and SBA lending; personal and corporate trust services; credit cards; investment management products; insurance products; and securities and investment services.

The company conducts banking operations through approximately 191 financial centers located in communities throughout Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. Simmons First National Corporation was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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