Q4 Earnings Preview for KeyCorp (KEY)

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KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results on January 23, 2020, before markets open for trading. The company is expected to report earnings of $0.48/share on revenue of $1.64 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48/share is based on a poll of 15 analysts and represents a growth of 0.8% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $0.48/share.

The revenue forecast of $1.64 billion based on a poll of 9 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline of -0.8%. Last year the company reported $1.653 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of $0/share for Q4, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $1,639.55 $1,653.00 -0.8%
EPS $0.48 $0.48 0.8%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 4 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 1 quarter, and met expectations 3 quarters.

What are your expectations from KeyCorp for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2019 $0.46 $0.48 3.9% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.44 $0.44 0.0% Meet
Q1, 2019 $0.41 $0.40 -2.4% Missed
Q4, 2018 $0.47 $0.48 2.1% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.44 $0.45 1.8% Beat
Q2, 2018 $0.42 $0.43 4.3% Beat
Q1, 2018 $0.38 $0.38 0.0% Meet
Q4, 2017 $0.36 $0.36 0.0% Meet

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report.

After the last earnings report for the period ending September 30, 2019, the stock price did not react much to the update.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-10-17 $17.69 $17.77 0.5% Increase
2019-07-23 $17.37 $18.44 6.2% Increase
2019-04-18 $17.17 $16.79 -2.2% Decline
2019-01-17 $16.75 $16.85 0.6% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

KeyCorp is currently trading at $19.50/share, down -0.5% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 95.0% of its 52-week high of $20.53/share. The company’s stock price is up 9.7% since the last earnings report and flat over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 50.75 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NYSE:KEY Stock Price Chart Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 11.2x and a forward P/E multiple of 10.7x.

KeyCorp’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.3x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of January 21, 2020
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q3
Period End Date September 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $19.50
P/E Ratio 11.2x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 10.7x
PEG Ratio -25.1
Total Debt to Capital (%) 43.7%
Levered Free Cash Flow $3.527 billion
Market Capitalization $19.295 billion

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: KeyCorp

KeyCorp is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $19.295 billion. The company operates in the Financial sector and the Banks industry.

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking services in the United States.

The company’s Key Community Bank segment offers various deposit and investment products, personal finance services, residential mortgages, home equity loans, credit cards, and installment loans. It also purchases retail auto-sales contracts through a network of auto dealership; offers financial, estate and retirement planning, asset management, and trust services, as well as portfolio management, life insurance, charitable giving, and related services for high-net-worth clients. In addition, this segment provides deposits, investment and credit products, and business advisory services to small businesses; and commercial lending, cash management, equipment leasing, and investment products, as well as employee benefit programs, succession planning, capital market access, derivatives, and foreign exchange services to mid-sized businesses.

Its Key Corporate Bank segment offers a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance, as well as commercial mortgage loans for middle-market clients comprising consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public, real estate, and technology sectors. The company also offers securities underwriting, investment banking, and brokerage services.

As of December 31, 2018, it offered its products and services through 1,159 retail banking branches and 1,505 automated teller machines in 15 states, as well as additional offices, online and mobile banking capabilities, and a telephone banking call center.

KeyCorp was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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