Origin Q4 Earnings: Can OBNK Hit Its $0.58 EPS Target?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Origin Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQGS:OBNK) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results after the market closes on Wednesday, January 22, 2020. Management will hold a conference call to discuss such results on Thursday, January 23, 2020, at 8:00 a.m. CT (9:00 am ET). Webcast details can be found here.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.58/share on revenue of $56.715 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.58/share is based on a poll of 4 analysts and represents a growth of 6.4% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $0.55/share.

The revenue forecast of $56.715 million based on a poll of 4 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 7.7%. Last year the company reported $52.649 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of $0.03/share for Q4, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $56.71 $52.65 7.7%
EPS $0.58 $0.55 6.4%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 5 out of the last 6 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Origin for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2019 $0.60 $0.62 3.3% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.62 $0.52 -16.1% Missed
Q1, 2019 $0.57 $0.60 5.3% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.54 $0.55 1.9% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.51 $0.52 2.0% Beat
Q2, 2018 $0.46 $0.53 15.2% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report.

After the last earnings report for the period ending September 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by increasing by 3.2%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-10-23 $33.14 $34.19 3.2% Increase
2019-07-24 $34.50 $33.80 -2.0% Decline
2019-04-24 $34.49 $34.71 0.6% Increase
2019-01-23 $35.29 $34.81 -1.4% Decline

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Origin is currently trading at $36.25/share, down -1.1% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 95.0% of its 52-week high of $38.14/share. The company’s stock price is up 6.0% since the last earnings report and down -0.8% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 50.45 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NASDAQGS:OBNK Stock Price Chart Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 15.9x and a forward P/E multiple of 15.7x.

Origin’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.5x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of January 21, 2020
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q3
Period End Date September 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $36.25
P/E Ratio 15.9x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 15.7x
PEG Ratio 2.8
Total Debt to Capital (%) 35.3%
Levered Free Cash Flow $41.248 million
Market Capitalization $861.1 million

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Origin Bancorp, Inc.

Origin Bancorp, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $861.1 million. The company operates in the Financial sector and the Banks industry.

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, high net worth individuals, and retail clients in Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi. It accepts non-interest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers single and multi-family real estate, residential construction, commercial building, and consumer loans, as well as loans to small and medium-sized businesses.

The company also offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and Internet banking and voice response information, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit box, U.S. savings bonds, and automatic account transfer services; and mortgage origination and servicing facilities.

As of December 31, 2018, it operated 41 banking centers.

The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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