United Airlines (UAL) Q4 2019 Earnings Prep

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQGS:UAL) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, January 22, 2020. The conference call is scheduled for 9:30 AM CST the same day.

United is expected to report earnings of $2.65/share on revenue of $10.876 billion. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65/share is based on a poll of 18 analysts and represents a growth of 10.1% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $2.41/share.

The revenue forecast of $10.876 billion based on a poll of 13 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 3.7%. Last year the company reported $10.491 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of $0.24/share for Q4, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $10,876.00 $10,491.00 3.7%
EPS $2.65 $2.41 10.1%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 7 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from United Airlines for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2019 $3.97 $4.07 2.5% Beat
Q2, 2019 $4.09 $4.21 3.0% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.93 $1.15 23.7% Beat
Q4, 2018 $2.06 $2.41 17.3% Beat
Q3, 2018 $3.06 $3.06 -0.1% Missed
Q2, 2018 $3.07 $3.23 5.2% Beat
Q1, 2018 $0.48 $0.50 4.2% Beat
Q4, 2017 $1.34 $1.40 4.5% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending September 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by increasing by 3.1%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-10-15 $86.97 $89.70 3.1% Increase
2019-07-16 $91.32 $94.78 3.8% Increase
2019-04-16 $84.52 $89.24 5.6% Increase
2019-01-15 $79.91 $86.36 8.1% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

United Airlines is currently trading at $89.70/share, up 0.2% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 93.4% of its 52-week high of $96.03/share. The company’s stock price is flat since the last earnings report and up 3.2% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 53.17 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NASDAQGS:UAL Stock Price Chart Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 8.0x and a forward P/E multiple of 7.3x.

United Airlines’ current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.0x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of January 20, 2020
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q3
Period End Date September 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $89.70
P/E Ratio 8.0x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 7.3x
PEG Ratio 6.3
Total Debt to Capital (%) 47.0%
Levered Free Cash Flow $1.857 billion
Enterprise Value / EBITDA 5.6x

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $22.698 billion and a total enterprise value of $37.712 billion. The company operates in the Industrials sector and the Airlines industry.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. It transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional operations. As of December 31, 2018, the company operated a fleet of 1,329 aircraft. It also sells fuel; and offers catering, ground handling, and maintenance services for third parties. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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