Q4 Earnings Preview for Great Southern (GSBC)

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQGS:GSBC) is scheduled to report Q4 preliminary earnings results after the market closes on Tuesday, January 21, 2020. Management plans to host a conference call the following day, Wednesday, January 22, 2020, at 2:00 p.m. CT.

The company is expected to report earnings of $1.25/share on revenue of $52.7 million after markets close for trading. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $1.25/share is based on a poll of 2 analysts and represents a growth of 1.6% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $1.23/share.

The revenue forecast of $52.7 million based on a poll of 1 analyst implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 1.8%. Last year the company reported $51.776 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS growth of $0.02/share for Q4, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $52.70 $51.78 1.8%
EPS $1.25 $1.23 1.6%

Earnings Call Trends

Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 8 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance. What are your expectations from Great Southern for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2019 $1.24 $1.38 11.3% Beat
Q2, 2019 $1.15 $1.28 11.3% Beat
Q1, 2019 $1.08 $1.19 10.3% Beat
Q4, 2018 $1.10 $1.23 11.4% Beat
Q3, 2018 $1.06 $1.18 11.3% Beat
Q2, 2018 $0.93 $0.97 4.3% Beat
Q1, 2018 $0.87 $0.95 9.2% Beat
Q4, 2017 $0.82 $0.90 10.2% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report.

After the last earnings report for the period ending September 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by increasing by 3.9%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-10-16 $57.19 $59.40 3.9% Increase
2019-07-17 $58.68 $58.83 0.3% Increase
2019-04-17 $55.21 $56.65 2.6% Increase
2019-01-22 $50.32 $50.55 0.5% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Great Southern is currently trading at $62.42/share, down -0.6% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 96.8% of its 52-week high of $64.48/share. The company’s stock price is up 5.1% since the last earnings report and down -0.6% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 52.32 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NASDAQGS:GSBC Stock Price ChartSource: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12.2x and a forward P/E multiple of 12.1x. Great Southern’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.5x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of January 20, 2020
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q3
Period End Date September 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $62.42
P/E Ratio 12.2x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 12.1x
PEG Ratio -1.6
Total Debt to Capital (%) 31.3%
Levered Free Cash Flow $75.238 million
Enterprise Value / EBITDA

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $888.7 million and a total enterprise value of -. The company operates in the Financial sector and the Banks industry.

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Great Southern Bank that offers a range of financial services in the United States. Its deposit products include regular savings accounts, checking accounts, money market accounts, fixed interest rate certificates with varying maturities, certificates of deposit, brokered certificates, and individual retirement accounts.

The company’s loan portfolio comprises residential and commercial real estate loans, construction loans, commercial business loans, home improvement loans, and unsecured consumer loans, as well as secured consumer loans, including automobile loans, boat loans, home equity loans, loans secured by savings deposits. It also provides insurance and related services.

As of December 31, 2018, the company operated 99 retail banking centers and approximately 200 automated teller machines in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, and Arkansas; and 6 commercial and 1 mortgage loan production offices Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Omaha, Nebraska, as well as in Tulsa, Okla.

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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