Q4 Earnings Preview for Comerica (CMA)

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Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results on January 21, 2020. The conference call is scheduled for 7:00am CST and can be accessed via a live webcast.

The company is expected to report earnings of $1.75/share on revenue of $806.5 million before markets open for trading. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $1.75/share is based on a poll of 15 analysts and represents a decline of -10.5% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $1.95/share.

The revenue forecast of $806.5 million based on a poll of 17 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline of -6.7%. Last year the company reported $864 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS decline of -$0.20/share for Q4, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $806.50 $864.00 -6.7%
EPS $1.75 $1.95 -10.5%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 6 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 2 quarters. What are your expectations from Comerica for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2019 $1.89 $1.93 2.1% Beat
Q2, 2019 $2 $1.94 -3.0% Missed
Q1, 2019 $1.94 $2.08 7.2% Beat
Q4, 2018 $1.90 $1.95 2.6% Beat
Q3, 2018 $1.78 $1.86 4.7% Beat
Q2, 2018 $1.68 $1.90 13.1% Beat
Q1, 2018 $1.55 $1.54 -0.5% Missed
Q4, 2017 $1.25 $1.28 2.4% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending September 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by falling by -3.6%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-10-16 $67 $64.59 -3.6% Decline
2019-07-17 $71.75 $69.34 -3.4% Decline
2019-04-16 $78.95 $79.26 0.4% Increase
2019-01-16 $74.04 $79.70 7.6% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Comerica is currently trading at $68.72/share, up 0.7% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 77.2% of its 52-week high of $88.96/share. The company’s stock price is up 6.4% since the last earnings report and down 0.0% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 44.47 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NYSE:CMA Stock Price Chart Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 8.0x and a forward P/E multiple of 8.5x. Comerica’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.4x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of January 20, 2020
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q3
Period End Date September 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $68.72
P/E Ratio 8.0x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 8.5x
PEG Ratio -0.6
Total Debt to Capital (%) 44.3%
Levered Free Cash Flow $1.431 billion
Enterprise Value / EBITDA

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Comerica Incorporated

Comerica Incorporated is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $9.906 billion and a total enterprise value of -. The company operates in the Financials sector and the Banks industry.

Comerica Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services. It operates through three segments: Business Bank, Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. The Business Bank segment offers various products and services, including commercial loans and lines of credit, deposits, cash management, capital market products, international trade finance, letters of credit, foreign exchange management services, and loan syndication services middle market businesses, multinational corporations, and governmental entities. The Retail Bank segment provides personal financial services, such as consumer lending, consumer deposit gathering, and mortgage loan origination. It also offers various consumer products that include deposit accounts, installment loans, credit cards, student loans, home equity lines of credit, and residential mortgage loans. The Wealth Management segment provides products and services comprising fiduciary, private banking, retirement, investment management and advisory, and investment banking and brokerage services. It also sells annuity products; and life, disability, and long-term care insurance products. The company also engages in the securities portfolio, and asset and liability management activities. It operates in Texas, California, and Michigan, as well as in Arizona and Florida, Canada, and Mexico.

The company was formerly known as DETROITBANK Corporation and changed its name to Comerica Incorporated in July 1982. Comerica Incorporated was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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