Commerce (CBSH) Q4 2019 Earnings Prep

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQGS:CBSH) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, January 22 at 5:00 AM CT.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.87/share on revenue of $335.3 million before markets open for trading. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.87/share is based on a poll of 10 analysts and represents a decline of -3.4% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $0.90/share.

The revenue forecast of $335.3 million based on a poll of 5 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline of -4.0%. Last year the company reported $349.4 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS decline of -$0.03/share for Q4, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $335.30 $349.37 -4.0%
EPS $0.87 $0.90 -3.4%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 7 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Commerce for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2019 $0.89 $0.93 5.4% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.90 $0.91 1.6% Beat
Q1, 2019 $0.84 $0.81 -4.0% Missed
Q4, 2018 $0.89 $0.90 1.3% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.87 $0.93 7.3% Beat
Q2, 2018 $0.81 $0.92 12.8% Beat
Q1, 2018 $0.71 $0.83 17.9% Beat
Q4, 2017 $0.65 $0.67 2.8% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending September 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by increasing by 3.4%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-10-16 $57.38 $59.33 3.4% Increase
2019-07-16 $55.40 $54.68 -1.3% Decline
2019-04-11 $57.25 $56.46 -1.4% Decline
2019-01-17 $56.88 $58.68 3.2% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Commerce is currently trading at $67.61/share, up 0.3% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 98.5% of its 52-week high of $68.65/share. The company’s stock price is up 13.9% since the last earnings report and up 0.1% over the previous week.

The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 60.86 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.


NASDAQGS:CBSH Stock Price Chart
Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 17.9x and a forward P/E multiple of 18.7x. Commerce’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.6x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of January 20, 2020
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q3
Period End Date September 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $67.61
P/E Ratio 17.9x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 18.7x
PEG Ratio -2.4
Total Debt to Capital (%) 20.0%
Levered Free Cash Flow $441.9 million
Market Capitalization $7.618 billion

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Commerce Bancshares, Inc.

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $7.618 billion. The company operates in the Financial sector and the Banks industry.

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth.

The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed-rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards, as well as provides online banking services.

The Commercial segment offers corporate lending, merchant and commercial bank card, leasing, international, and investment safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed-income securities to individuals, corporations, correspondent banks, public institutions, and municipalities.

The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning services, brokerage services, and advisory and discretionary investment management services. The company also offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, and insurance agency services. It operates through a network of 320 locations in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, as well as commercial offices.

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

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