Amphenol Q4 Earnings: Can APH Hit Its $0.91 EPS Target?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Amphenol Corporation (NYSE:APH) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, January 22, 2020. Amphenol management plans to host a conference call to discuss the Q4 results on the same day at 1:00 PM ET.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.91/share on revenue of $1.997 billion before markets open for trading. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.91/share is based on a poll of 15 analysts and represents a decline of -13.3% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $1.05/share.

The revenue forecast of $1.997 billion based on a poll of 13 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) decline of -10.2%. Last year the company reported $2.225 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS decline of -$0.14/share for Q4, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $1,997.00 $2,224.70 -10.2%
EPS $0.91 $1.05 -13.3%

Analysts are generally bullish on Amphenol. Of the analysts tracked by Standard & Poors, eight have assigned a Buy rating, six have assigned a holding rating, and zero have assigned a sell recommendation. The general growth of the industrial sector, stricter regulations, and the Internet of Things (IoT) are expected to fuel growth for sensors and interconnect content.

The company’s dependency on the automotive and industrials markets does make Amphenol sensitive to economic downturns.


NYSE:APH Fundamentals Chart
Source: Finbox

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 7 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Amphenol for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs. Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q3, 2019 $0.87 $0.95 9.2% Beat
Q2, 2019 $0.93 $0.92 -0.6% Missed
Q1, 2019 $0.88 $0.89 1.1% Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.97 $1.05 8.2% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.93 $0.99 6.5% Beat
Q2, 2018 $0.85 $0.90 5.9% Beat
Q1, 2018 $0.80 $0.83 3.7% Beat
Q4, 2017 $0.81 $0.86 5.9% Beat

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending September 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by increasing by 2.7%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-10-23 $99.09 $101.79 2.7% Increase
2019-07-24 $98.36 $93.86 -4.6% Decline
2019-04-24 $105.38 $100.63 -4.5% Decline
2019-01-23 $81.17 $85.22 5.0% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Amphenol is currently trading at $109.45/share, down -0.3% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 99.3% of its 52-week high of $110.24/share. The company’s stock price is up 7.5% since the last earnings report and up 0.3% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 64.26 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

NYSE:APH Stock Price Chart Source: Finbox

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 27.4x and a forward P/E multiple of 28.8x. Amphenol’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 7.8x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of January 20, 2020
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q3
Period End Date September 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $109.45
P/E Ratio 27.4x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 28.8x
PEG Ratio 4.9
Total Debt to Capital (%) 11.3%
Levered Free Cash Flow $1.131 billion
Enterprise Value / EBITDA 17.7x

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Amphenol Corporation

Amphenol Corporation is a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of $32.451 billion and a total enterprise value of $35.656 billion. The company operates in the Information Technology sector and the Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components industry.

Amphenol Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, primarily designs, manufactures and markets electrical, electronic, and fiber-optic connectors worldwide. It operates through two segments, Interconnect Products and Assemblies, and Cable Products and Solutions.

The Interconnect Products and Assemblies segment offers connector and connector systems, including fiber optic, harsh environment, high-speed, and radio frequency interconnect products, as well as antennas; power interconnect products, busbars, and distribution systems; and other connectors. It also provides value-add products, such as backplane interconnect systems, cable assemblies, and harnesses, and cable management products; and other products comprising antennas, flexible and rigid printed circuit boards, hinges, molded parts, production-related products, sensors and sensor-based products, and switches.

The Cable Products and Solutions segment offers coaxial, power, and specialty cables; cable assemblies; and components, which include combiner/splitter products, connector and connector systems, and fiber optic components. The company sells its products through its sales force, independent representatives, and a network of electronics distributors to original equipment manufacturers, electronic manufacturing services companies, original design manufacturers, and service providers in the automotive, broadband communication, commercial aerospace, industrial, information technology and data communication, military, mobile device, and mobile network markets.

Amphenol Corporation was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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