Tsakos Energy Navigation Q3 Earnings: Is TNP Cheap at 4.4x Forward P/E?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (NYSE:TNP) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results prior┬áto the open of the market in New York on Tuesday, November 26, 2019. Management will hold a conference call at 9:00 am EST — details here.

The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.13/share on revenue of $112.8 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.13/share is based on a poll of 2 analysts. For the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of -$0.28/share.

The revenue forecast of $112.8 million based on a poll of 1 analyst implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 21.8%. Last year the company reported $92.596 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.13/share for Q3, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $112.76 $92.60 21.8%
EPS -$0.13 -$0.28 NM

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 1 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 6 quarters, and met expectations 1 quarter.

What are your expectations from Tsakos Energy Navigation for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2019 -$0.13 -$0.14 NM Missed
Q1, 2019 -$0.05 $0.01 NM Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.05 -$0.08 NM Missed
Q3, 2018 -$0.21 -$0.28 NM Missed
Q2, 2018 -$0.18 -$0.18 NM Meet
Q1, 2018 -$0.15 -$0.21 NM Missed
Q4, 2017 -$0.04 -$0.05 NM Missed
Q3, 2017 -$0.09 -$0.12 NM Missed

One question we always consider here at the Bankers’ Tribune is how important are earnings reports to Tsakos Energy Navigation’s stock price performance? It’s more important for some companies than for others.

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by falling by -2.3%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-09-06 $3.04 $2.97 -2.3% Decline
2019-06-06 $3.01 $3.15 4.7% Increase
2019-03-29 $3.08 $3.10 0.6% Increase
2018-11-30 $3.38 $3.37 -0.3% Decline

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Tsakos Energy Navigation is currently trading at $3.60/share, up 2.0% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 90.0% of its 52-week high of $4/share. The company’s stock price is up 21.2% since the last earnings report and up 6.8% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 51.02 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of -4.7x and a forward P/E multiple of 4.4x. Tsakos Energy Navigation’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 0.2x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 25, 2019
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $3.60
P/E Ratio -4.7x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 4.4x
PEG Ratio 0.1
Total Debt to Capital (%) 79.6%
Levered Free Cash Flow $80.801 million
Enterprise Value / EBITDA 8.6x

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $316.3 million and a total enterprise value of $1.792 billion. The company operates in the Energy sector and Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry.

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited provides seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services worldwide. The company offers marine transportation services for national, major, and other independent oil companies and refiners under long, medium, and short-term charters.

As of April 2, 2019, it operated a fleet of 64 double-hull vessels, including 59 conventional tankers, 2 liquefied natural gas carriers, and 3 suezmax DP2 shuttle tankers with dynamic positioning technology. The company was formerly known as MIF Limited and changed its name to Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited in July 2001.

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Athens, Greece.

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