Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Q3 2019 Earnings: What Can You Expect?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on November 26, 2019, at 8:30 AM EST. You can find more information about the conference call here.

The company is expected to report earnings of $0.24/share on revenue of $869.9 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24/share is based on a poll of 14 analysts and represents a decline of -27.7% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $0.33/share.

The revenue forecast of $869.9 million based on a poll of 13 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 1.0%. Last year the company reported $861.2 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS decline of -$0.09/share for Q3, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $869.89 $861.19 1.0%
EPS $0.24 $0.33 -27.7%

Earnings Call Trends

Management has been great at managing analyst expectations historically. The company has a perfect record over the last 8 tracked quarters of exceeding earnings guidance. What are your expectations from Abercrombie & Fitch for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2020 -$0.52 -$0.48 NM Beat
Q1, 2020 -$0.43 -$0.29 NM Beat
Q4, 2019 $1.14 $1.35 18.9% Beat
Q3, 2019 $0.21 $0.33 57.1% Beat
Q2, 2019 -$0.05 $0.06 NM Beat
Q1, 2019 -$0.80 -$0.56 NM Beat
Q4, 2018 $1.11 $1.38 24.3% Beat
Q3, 2018 $0.20 $0.30 50.0% Beat

One question we always consider here at the Bankers’ Tribune is how important are earnings reports to Abercrombie & Fitch’s stock price performance? It’s more important for some companies than for others.

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending August 3, 2019, the stock price reacted by falling by -14.1%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-08-29 $17.02 $14.62 -14.1% Decline
2019-05-29 $25.01 $17.50 -30.0% Decline
2019-03-06 $21.35 $25.76 20.7% Increase
2018-11-29 $17.12 $20.91 22.1% Increase

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Abercrombie & Fitch is currently trading at $16.23/share, up 1.9% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 53.0% of its 52-week high of $30.63/share. The company’s stock price is up 11.0% since the last earnings report and down -5.0% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 44.30 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 13.3x and a forward P/E multiple of 20.4x. Abercrombie & Fitch’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.0x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 25, 2019
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2020.Q2
Period End Date August 3, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $16.23
P/E Ratio 13.3x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 20.4x
PEG Ratio 0.3
Total Debt to Capital (%) 63.4%
Levered Free Cash Flow $73.85 million
Enterprise Value / EBITDA 7.3x

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $1.001 billion and a total enterprise value of $2.268 billion. The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Specialty Retail industry.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co., through its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer. The company operates in two segments, Hollister and Abercrombie. It offers an assortment of apparel, personal care products, intimates, and accessories for men, women, and children under the Hollister, Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie kids, and Gilly Hicks brands. As of June 14, 2019, it operated approximately 850 stores in North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The company sells products through its stores and direct-to-consumer channels; various third-party wholesale, franchise, and licensing arrangements; and e-commerce platforms.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.

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