Dynagas LNG (DLNG) Q3 Earnings Decline Expected: Time You Sell?

in EARNINGS/INVESTING IDEAS by

Dynagas LNG Partners LP (NYSE:DLNG) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on Friday, November 22, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. ET. The company is expected to report earnings of $0.01/share on revenue of $33.52 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01/share is based on a poll of 2 analysts and represents a decline of -62.5% over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of $0.04/share.

The revenue forecast of $33.52 million based on a poll of 2 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 7.0%. Last year the company reported $31.32 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS decline of -$0.03/share for Q3, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $33.52 $31.32 7.0%
EPS $0.01 $0.04 -62.5%

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 2 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, missed 5 quarters, and met expectations 1 quarter. What are your expectations from Dynagas LNG for earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2019 -$0.03 -$0.06 NM Missed
Q1, 2019 -$0.01 -$0.03 NM Missed
Q4, 2018 $0.06 -$0.04 NM Missed
Q3, 2018 $0.02 $0.04 100.0% Beat
Q2, 2018 $0.05 $0.08 60.0% Beat
Q1, 2018 $0.16 $0.16 0.0% Meet
Q4, 2017 $0.21 $0.16 -25.6% Missed
Q3, 2017 $0.20 $0.15 -26.8% Missed

One question we always consider here at the Bankers’ Tribune is how important are earnings reports to Dynagas LNG’s stock price performance? It’s more important for some companies than for others.

In the following table, we summarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Day Prior” column shows the closing stock price on the day before the earnings report, and the “Price Next Day” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for the period ending June 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by increasing by 23.6%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-09-26 $1.48 $1.83 23.6% Increase
2019-06-05 $2.02 $1.61 -20.3% Decline
2019-03-21 $2.58 $2.38 -7.8% Decline
2018-11-15 $7.63 $6.69 -12.3% Decline

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

Dynagas LNG is currently trading at $2.12/share, down -0.9% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 24.9% of its 52-week high of $8.50/share. The company’s stock price is up 43.2% since the last earnings report and up 1.4% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 55.04 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

Dynagas Revenues EBITDA Margin-Watermarked

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 59.9x and a forward P/E multiple of 82.2x. Dynagas LNG’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 0.4x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 21, 2019
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $2.12
P/E Ratio 59.9x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) 82.2x
PEG Ratio 0.0
Total Debt to Capital (%) 78.0%
Levered Free Cash Flow $38.644 million
Enterprise Value / EBITDA 9.8x

Source: Finbox

Company Profile: Dynagas LNG Partners LP

Dynagas LNG Partners LP is a micro-cap stock with a market capitalization of $76.025 million and a total enterprise value of $801.8 million. The company operates in the Energy sector and Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry.

Dynagas LNG Partners LP operates in the seaborne transportation industry worldwide. The company owns and operates liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. As of April 30, 2019, its fleet consisted of six LNG carriers with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 914,000 cubic meters.

Dynagas GP LLC serves as the general partner of Dynagas LNG Partners LP. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Monaco.

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