FibroGen (FGEN) Q3 Earnings Preview

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FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQGS:FGEN) had a rocky week last week when the Nasdaq suspended trading pending the release of news on the company’s Roxadustat safety data in Washington, DC at the American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week.

Fortunately for FibroGen, the pooled analyses for Roxadustat Phase III program showed positive efficacy and no increased cardiovascular risk in patients with anaemia from chronic kidney disease.

FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQGS:FGEN) is scheduled to report Q3 earnings results on November 6, 2019. The company is expected to report earnings of -$0.55/share on revenue of $30 million. The consensus earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.55/share is based on a poll of 6 analysts and represents a growth of 9.0% of over the same quarter last year when the company reported earnings of -$0.50/share.

The revenue forecast of $30 million based on a poll of 7 analysts implies a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 3.4%. Last year the company reported $29.027 million in revenue for the quarter.

Expected to report EPS of -$0.55 for Q3, 2019
Metric Expected Prior Year YoY Change
Revenue $30.00 $29.03 3.4%
EPS -$0.55 -$0.50 NM

Earnings Call Trends

Historically, management has exceeded analyst expectations 5 out of the last 8 tracked quarters, and missed expectations 3 quarters.

What are your expectations from FibroGen for this earnings this quarter? Let us know in the comments!

Analyst Expected vs Reported EPS
Quarter Expected Reported Surprise Result
Q2, 2019 -$0.59 $1.26 NM Beat
Q1, 2019 -$0.76 -$0.53 NM Beat
Q4, 2018 $0.11 $0.23 109.1% Beat
Q3, 2018 -$0.44 -$0.50 NM Missed
Q2, 2018 -$0.60 -$0.28 NM Beat
Q1, 2018 -$0.52 -$0.50 NM Beat
Q4, 2017 -$0.22 -$0.27 NM Missed
Q3, 2017 -$0.43 -$0.50 NM Missed

One question we always consider here at the Bankers’ Tribune is how important are earnings reports to FibroGen’s stock price performance? It’s more important for some companies than others. In the following table we sumarize the company’s stock price movements after earnings releases. The “Price Before” column shows the closing stock price on the day prior to the earnings report and the “Price After” column shows the stock price at the end of the trading day after the earnings report. After the last earnings report for period ending June 30, 2019, the stock price reacted by increasing by 2.2%.

Stock Price Performance After Earnings
Report Date Price Day Prior Price Next Day Change % Result
2019-08-08 $45.20 $46.20 2.2% Increase
2019-05-09 $46.41 $36.39 -21.6% Decline
2019-02-27 $57.09 $57.80 1.2% Increase
2018-11-08 $43.28 $42.06 -2.8% Decline

Fundamentals And Technical Analysis

FibroGen is currently trading at $41.62/share, up 9.6% for the day. The company is trading at approximately 68.0% of its 52 week high of $61.23/share. The company’s stock price is down -7.9% since the last earnings report and up 4.0% over the previous week. The company’s 14 Day Relative Price Index (RSI) of 58.32 suggests the company is trading in technically neutral territory. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

FibroGen Inc - Stock Price

The current share price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 73.8x and a forward P/E multiple of -93.2x.

FibroGen’s current share price also implies a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 5.8x. The following table summarizes some other key fundamental ratios:

Data as of November 10, 2019
Metric Value
Last Fiscal Period FY2019.Q2
Period End Date June 30, 2019
Stock Price (Current) $41.62
P/E Ratio 73.8x
P/E Ratio (Fwd) -93.2x
PEG Ratio -0.7
Total Debt to Capital (%) 2.0%
Levered Free Cash Flow -$21.910 million
Enterprise Value / EBITDA 55.2x

Company Profile: FibroGen, Inc.

FibroGen, Inc. is a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of $3.617 billion and a total enterprise value of $3.051 billion. The company operates in the Healthcare sector and Biotechnology industry. FibroGen, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes therapeutics to treat serious unmet medical needs. It is developing Roxadustat, an oral small molecule inhibitor of hypoxia inducible factor prolyl hydroxylases (HIF-PHs) that is in Phase III clinical development for the treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease in the United States and Europe; and in Phase II/III development in China for anemia associated with myelodysplastic syndromes. The company is also developing Pamrevlumab, a human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the activity of connective tissue growth factor for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, pancreatic cancer, liver fibrosis, and diabetic kidney disease, as well as Duchenne muscular dystrophy; and FG-5200, a corneal implant medical device for the treatment of corneal blindness resulting from partial thickness corneal damage. It has collaboration agreements with Astellas Pharma Inc. and AstraZeneca AB. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

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