Too Late To Buy Salem Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SALM)?

in INVESTING IDEAS by

Salem Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SALM) investors have enjoyed seeing the stock price increase by 39.7% over the last month. As a small-cap stock, hardly covered by analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s take a look at the company’s expected growth and valuation based on its most recent financial data to see if there is further upside moving forward.


What’s The Opportunity In Salem?

Welcoming news for investors, Salem is still trading at a fairly cheap price. According to our 9 valuation analyses, the intrinsic value for the stock is $6.45 per share and is currently trading at $5.30 in the market. This means that there is still an opportunity to buy now.

Salem Media Group, Inc. Valuation Detail
Analysis Model Fair Value Upside (Downside)
10-yr DCF Revenue Exit $5.49 3.5%
5-yr DCF Revenue Exit $4.48 -15.4%
Peer Revenue Multiples $7.40 39.5%
10-yr DCF EBITDA Exit $7.81 47.4%
5-yr DCF EBITDA Exit $7.82 47.6%
10-yr DCF Growth Exit $6.88 29.8%
5-yr DCF Growth Exit $6.48 22.3%
Peer P/E Multiples $7.27 37.1%
Dividend Discount Model $4.46 -15.8%
Average $6.45 21.8%

Click on any of the analyses above to view the latest model with real-time data.

What’s more interesting is that Salem’s share price is quite volatile, which gives us more chances to buy since the share price could sink lower (or rise higher) in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.


Can We Expect Growth From Salem?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matters the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price.

Salem projected ebitda chartsource: finbox.io data explorer

With Salem’s relatively muted EBITDA growth of 2.4% expected over the next five years on average, growth doesn’t seem like a key catalyst for a buying decision, at least in the short to medium-term.


What This Means For Investors

Growth investors typically look to invest in companies that are expanding sales, gaining market share and building customer bases. On the other hand, value investors often argue that the most successful investments are in companies that deliver the highest cash flows while trading at the lowest valuation.

But why not put those hands together? A company that has both growth and value characteristics would certainly make the most attractive investment. So what did we find out about Salem?

Although Salem’s future growth is relatively low, the company’s stock still appears to be trading at a discount to its intrinsic value. Therefore, it may be a great time to purchase shares or add more to your existing holdings.

It is important to note that there are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on Salem by taking a look at the following:

Valuation Metrics: what is Salem’s EBITDA less CapEx multiple and how does it compare to its peers? This is a helpful multiple to analyze when comparing capital intensive businesses. View the company’s EBITDA less CapEx multiple here.

Risk Metrics: what is Salem’s asset efficiency? This ratio measures the amount of cash flow that a company generates from its assets. View the company’s asset efficiency here.

Efficiency Metrics: is management becoming more or less efficient in creating value for the firm? Find out by analyzing the company’s return on invested capital ratio here.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Expertise: Valuation, financial statement analysis. Matt Hogan is also a co-founder of finbox.io. His expertise is in investment decision making. Prior to finbox.io, Matt worked for an investment banking group providing fairness opinions in connection to stock acquisitions. He spent much of his time building valuation models to help clients determine an asset’s fair value. He believes that these same valuation models should be used by all investors before buying or selling a stock. His work is frequently published at InvestorPlace, Benzinga, ValueWalk, AAII, Barron’s, Seeking Alpha and investing.com. Matt can be reached at matt@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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