Eagle Materials Inc (NYSE: EXP) trades at a P/E multiple of 20.6x, which is higher than the Materials sector median of 19.3x. While this makes EXP appear like a stock to avoid or sell if you own it, you might change your mind after gaining a better understanding of the assumptions behind the P/E ratio. In this article, I will break down what the P/E ratio is, how to interpret it and what to watch out for.
Understanding Valuation Multiples and the P/E Ratio
A multiples valuation, also known as a comparable companies analysis, determines the value of a subject company by benchmarking the subject’s financial performance against similar public companies (peer group). We can infer if a company is undervalued or overvalued relative to its peers by comparing metrics like growth, profit margin, and valuation multiples.
A P/E Multiple is a valuation ratio that indicates the multiple of earnings investors are willing to pay for one share of a company:
P/E Multiple = Stock Price ÷ Earnings Per Share
The P/E ratio is not meant to be viewed in isolation and is only useful when comparing it to other similar companies. Since it is expected that similar companies have similar P/E ratios, we can come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios are different. I compare Eagle Material’s P/E multiple to those of Summit Materials, Inc. (NYSE: SUM), Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC), Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (NYSE: MLM) and USG Corporation(NYSE: USG) in the chart below.
Since Eagle Material’s P/E of 20.6x is lower than the median of its peers (27.0x), it means that investors are paying less than they should for each dollar of EXP’s earnings. As such, our analysis shows that EXP represents an undervalued stock. In fact, finbox.io’s P/E Multiple Model calculates a fair value of roughly $115.50 per share which implies approximately 8.0% upside.
Note that the selected multiple of 22.3x in the analysis above was determined by averaging Eagle Material’s current P/E multiple with its peer group.
Understanding the P/E Ratio’s Limitations
Before jumping to the conclusion that Eagle Material should be added to your portfolio, it is important to understand that our conclusion rests on two important assumptions.
(1) the selected peer group actually contains companies that truly are similar to Eagle Material, and
(2) the selected peer group stocks are being fairly valued by the market.
If the first assumption is not accurate, the difference in P/E ratios could be due to a variety of factors. For example, if you accidentally compare Eagle Material with higher growth companies, then its P/E multiple would naturally be lower than its peers since investors reward high growth stocks with a higher price.
source: P/E model
Now if the second assumption does not hold true, Eagle Material’s lower multiple may be because firms in our peer group are being overvalued by the market.
What This Means For Investors
As a shareholder, you may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock so its current undervaluation could signal a potential buying opportunity to increase your position in EXP. However, keep in mind the limitations of the P/E ratio when making investment decisions. There are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on Eagle Material by taking a look at the following:
Valuation Metrics: what is Eagle Material’s short ratio and how does it compare to its publicly traded peers? It represents the percentage of total shares outstanding that is being shorted. View the short ratio here.
Risk Metrics: how much interest coverage does Eagle Material have? This is a ratio used to assess a firm’s ability to pay interest expenses based on operating profits (EBIT). View the company’s interest coverage here.
Efficiency Metrics: fixed asset turnover is calculated by dividing revenue by average fixed assets. View Eagle Material’s fixed asset turnover here.
As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.